Short Answer

The net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort in Q1 2027 is not expected to exceed 109.0%, reflecting a decline from the 113% reported in Q3 2026, with the market pricing this at 0.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's 72.0 percentage point spike on November 11, 2026, was a direct reaction to monday.com's Q3 2026 earnings, announced on November 9. The report revealed a net dollar retention rate of 113% for the cohort of customers with over $100,000 in ARR. This figure is well above the market's resolution threshold of 109.0, causing a sharp upward repricing of the probability that the metric will remain above that level in Q1 2027.
While the 113% rate prompted the move, it also represents a continued decline from 115% in Q2 2026 and 117% in Q3 2025. The price jump occurred on zero traded contracts, indicating the current level may not reflect a consensus formed through significant trading activity.
  • Net dollar retention is expected below 109%, down from 113% in Q3 2026.
  • Rates for large enterprise customers declined steadily from 115% in Q1 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 109.0% 0.0% 0.3% A related market expects the rate below 109%, declining from 113% in Q3 2026.
Above 110.0% 0.0% 0.3% A related market expects the rate below 109%, declining from 113% in Q3 2026.
Above 111.0% 0.0% 0.2% A related market expects the rate below 109%, declining from 113% in Q3 2026.
Above 112.0% 0.0% 0.2% A related market expects the rate below 109%, declining from 113% in Q3 2026.
Above 113.0% 0.0% 0.1% A related market expects the rate below 109%, declining from 113% in Q3 2026.

Current Context

Monday's net dollar retention rates have seen recent declines. monday.com reported a net dollar retention rate of 113% for customers with more than $100,000 in ARR in Q3 2026, which ended September 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This rate was down from 115% in Q2 2026 and 117% in Q3 2025 [1][2][3][4]. Overall NDR declined to 108% in Q3 2026 from 109% in Q2 and 110% in Q1 2026 [4][5][6]. CFO Eliran Glazer projected overall NDR to decline further to 107% by year-end 2026 [4][5][6]. Management attributes the NDR decline primarily to the lapping of pricing actions from fiscal years 2024 and 2025, which had boosted NDR by approximately 1-2%, rather than customer churn [7][5]. Management characterizes this pressure as temporary for upmarket segments [7][5]. The Q1 2026 NDR for the >$100K ARR cohort was 115% [7]. Management anticipates a 1-2% decline from that level for the remainder of fiscal 2026, suggesting Q1 2027 NDR could fall within the 111-114% range [7].
Despite NDR declines, large customer growth and AI adoption continue. The number of paid customers with more than $100,000 in ARR reached 2,127 as of September 30, 2026, an increase of 33% year-over-year from 1,603 [1]. These customers now constitute 31% of total ARR, up from 27% a year prior [1]. AI ARR reached $36 million in Q3 2026, and monday agents passed 6 million interactions in less than two quarters [1][8]. AI accounted for 17% of net new ARR in Q2 2026, an increase from approximately 10% in Q1 [8]. Total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) were $946 million in Q3 2026, up 27% year-over-year, while current RPO (cRPO) was $759 million, up 22% YoY [1]. The largest customer deployment expanded to over 87,000 seats [1].
External analyses and market sentiment reflect mixed views. Kalshi prediction markets for Q3 2026 NDR >$100K ARR cohort showed traders pricing 'Above 113%' at 78% and 'Above 114%' at 48% before the actual 113% result was reported [9][10]. This market resolved on March 9, 2027 [9][10]. monday.com's Q1 2027 earnings are projected around May 10-11, 2027, based on the company's historical pattern of reporting Q1 results in mid-May [11][12]. A class action lawsuit alleges monday.com management obscured slowing growth, tougher sales cycles, and the reduced likelihood of achieving its $1.8 billion 2027 revenue goal [13]. In response, Barclays cut its price target to $95 from $115, while Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral with an $85 target [13]. FactorsToday analysts indicate that NDR stabilization around 107% or higher, sustained large-cohort growth above approximately 25%, and improving operating cash per share would strengthen conviction [14]. Conversely, NDR below 106% or two quarters of large-cohort growth below 20% would weaken it [14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces Third Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2Monday.com (MNDY) Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate - Historical Chart & Data - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  3. 3monday.com (MNDY) Dollar Based Net Retention Ratestockanalysis.com
  4. 4Why Did Monday.com (MNDY) Stock Crash After Earnings? - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  5. 5monday.com (MNDY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Foolfool.com
  6. 6monday.com (MNDY) Investor Relations, Earnings Summary & Outlookquartr.com
  7. 7Monday.Com Ltd (MNDY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and AI...uk.finance.yahoo.com
  8. 8Monday.com's AI Pivot Faces Its First Test As Margins Rise And Growth Coolsfinviz.com
  9. 9monday.com (MNDY) earnings | Kalshikalshi.com
  10. 10Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort in Q3 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  11. 11monday.com - monday.com to Announce First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on Monday, May 11, 2026ir.monday.com
  12. 12monday.com to Announce First Quarter 2025 Financial Results on Monday, May 12, 2025businesswire.com
  13. 13MNDY Stock Whipsaws As AI Pivot Collides With Legal, Analyst Heat - StocksToTradestockstotrade.com
  14. 14Monday.Com Ltd (NASDAQ: MNDY) — Installed Workflows Survive a Costlier Growth Engine | FactorsTodayfactorstoday.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 11, 2026: 72.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 73.0%

Outcome: Above 109.0%

What happened: The 72.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on November 11, 2026, likely stemmed from social media amplifying a specific data point from monday.com's Q3 2026 earnings, announced on November 9, 2026. The earnings report revealed that net dollar retention for the >$100k ARR cohort was 113% in Q3 2026, a figure well above the 109.0% market outcome [1]. Despite an overall decline in NDR and a subsequent stock drop due to broader retention concerns, positive social media sentiment, including an 88/100 bullish rating on Stocktwits and a 15,100% increase in X mentions over three months, likely highlighted this cohort's robust performance [2][3][4]. This targeted attention created a counter-narrative, causing the market movement. Social media was a contributing accelerant by emphasizing a specific optimistic data point amidst a generally negative news flow.
Sources (4)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces Third Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2Why Did Monday.com (MNDY) Stock Crash After Earnings? - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  3. 3monday.com (MNDY) Stock Analysis: AI Score, Insider Trading & Alternative Data | AltIndexaltindex.com
  4. 4monday.com (MNDY) Stocktwits: Mentions, Sentiment & Activity | AltIndexaltindex.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves YES if the Monday net dollar retention (NDR) rate for the >$100k ARR cohort in the next quarter is above the specified percentage (e.g., 109.0%). It resolves NO if this NDR rate is at or below the specified percentage. Trading for this market ends on May 10, 7:00 AM EDT, with the maximum payout scheduled for September 7, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 109.0% $0.81 $0.27 0%
Above 110.0% $0.59 $0.49 0%
Above 111.0% $0.36 $0.72 0%
Above 112.0% $0.20 $0.88 0%
Above 113.0% $0.11 $0.97 0%
Above 115.0% $0.06 $0.99 0%

Market Discussion

Monday.com's net dollar retention (NDR) for customers with over $100,000 in ARR was 113% in Q3 2026, down from 115% in Q2 2026, continuing a structural decline since Q1 2022 [1][2][3]. The CFO announced expectations for overall NDR to decline further to 107% by year-end 2026, anticipating 1-2% temporary pressure on the >$100K ARR cohort [4]. Prediction markets for Q1 2027 show low probabilities (<1%) for NDR thresholds above 109%, 110%, or 111%, suggesting market anticipation of continued compression despite a 33% year-over-year increase in customers with >$100,000 in ARR as of Q3 2026 [5][1][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces Third Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2Monday.com (MNDY) Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate - Historical Chart & Data - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  3. 3monday.com (MNDY) Dollar Based Net Retention Ratestockanalysis.com
  4. 4Why Did Monday.com (MNDY) Stock Crash After Earnings? - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  5. 5Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  6. 6Monday.Com Ltd (NASDAQ: MNDY) — Installed Workflows Survive a Costlier Growth Engine | FactorsTodayfactorstoday.com

5. How did the net dollar retention rates for large enterprise customers at Monday.com, Asana, and Smartsheet trend and compare between Q1 2025 and Q4 2026?

Monday.com Large Enterprise NDR (Q3 2026)113% [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
Asana Large Enterprise DBNRConsistent 96% (Q3 FY26 - Q1 FY27) [9][10][11][12][13][14][6][15][16]
Monday.com Overall NDR (Q3 2026)108% [7][17][18][19]
Monday.com's large enterprise net dollar retention declined steadily into late 2026. The net dollar retention rates for Monday.com's large enterprise customers, defined as those spending over $100,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), experienced a decrease between Q4 2025 and Q3 2026 [7][1][8][3][2][4][6]. Specifically, the rate dropped from 116% in Q4 2025 to 115% in both Q1 and Q2 2026, further declining to 113% by Q3 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Monday.com's overall net dollar retention rate was 108% in Q3 2026, with management anticipating a further decline to approximately 107% for the full year 2026. They expect revenue trends to stabilize several quarters into 2027 [7][17][18][19][20][21][22].
Asana maintained consistent enterprise retention, contrasting Monday.com's decline. For its large enterprise cohort, which includes customers spending $100,000 or more, Asana reported a consistent dollar-based net retention rate of 96% across Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 (ended October 31, 2025), Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 (ended January 31, 2026), and Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 (ended April 30, 2026) [9][10][11][12][13][14][6][15][16]. Asana's overall dollar-based net retention rate also remained consistently at 96% during these periods [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][6][16].
Smartsheet's reporting limitations preclude a direct comparative analysis. Smartsheet's public reporting on large enterprise net dollar retention rates for the requested period became limited following its take-private acquisition on January 22, 2025 [23][24]. This limitation prevents a direct comparison of its large enterprise retention trends with those of Monday.com and Asana during the specified timeframe [23][24].
Sources (24)
  1. 1monday.comir.monday.com
  2. 2monday.com
  3. 3monday.com
  4. 4koalagains.com
  5. 5monday.comir.monday.com
  6. 6saasmag.com
  7. 7fool.com
  8. 8monday.comir.monday.com
  9. 9marketscreener.com
  10. 10seekingalpha.com
  11. 11asana.cominvestors.asana.com
  12. 12quartr.com
  13. 13marketscreener.com
  14. 14asana.cominvestors.asana.com
  15. 15stocktitan.net
  16. 16sec.gov
  17. 17gurufocus.com
  18. 18marketbeat.com
  19. 19investing.com
  20. 20tradingview.com
  21. 21tradingview.comfr.tradingview.com
  22. 22quartr.com
  23. 23builtin.com
  24. 24quartr.com

6. What is the consensus among financial analysts covering Monday.com regarding the Q1 2027 net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort, based on reports published after the Q3 2026 earnings call?

Q1 2027 NDR Consensus (>100k ARR)Not specified [1][2][3]
Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance$368M-$370M (vs. $372.85M consensus) [3]
FY2026 Revenue Guidance (Feb 2026)$1.452-$1.462B (vs. $1.5B consensus) [4]
Analyst consensus for Q1 2027 net dollar retention is not explicitly stated. The available information does not explicitly specify an analyst consensus regarding Monday.com's Q1 2027 net dollar retention rate for the >$100k ARR cohort, based on reports published after the Q3 2026 earnings call [1][2][3]. For Q3 2026, the company projected revenue between $368M and $370M, which was below the analyst consensus of $372.85M. Additionally, non-GAAP operating income was anticipated to be $57M-$59M, indicating an operating margin of approximately 16% [3].
Company guidance has recently fallen below analyst expectations. Earlier, in February 2026, Monday.com set its FY2026 revenue guidance at $1.452-$1.462B, a figure approximately $38-$48M lower than the previously endorsed $1.5B consensus, and consequently withdrew its 2027 targets [4]. During the Q2 2026 earnings call on August 10, 2026, the company reported 22% year-over-year revenue growth. At that time, AI ARR doubled and contributed 17% of the net new ARR, alongside a significant 20% workforce reduction [5][2].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Cimarron Datacimarrondata.com
  2. 2monday.com (MNDY) Earnings Call Transcriptsstockanalysis.com
  3. 3Monday.com sees Q3 revenue $368M-$370M, consensus $372.85M - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  4. 4A Quarter-by-Quarter Record of Monday.com's Guidance Statements Leading to the February 2026 Reversalprnewswire.com
  5. 5monday.com layoffs: which go-to-market roles were cut | The State of AI Marketingstateofaimarketing.co

7. How is management's guidance for overall NDR in Q4 2026 and commentary on lapping 2024-2025 price increases expected to impact the >$100k cohort's NDR in Q1 2027?

Management guidance on overall NDR Q4 2026No information found (Cimarron Data [1])
Commentary on 2024-2025 price increasesNo information found (Cimarron Data [1])
Expected impact on >$100k cohort's NDR Q1 2027No information found (Cimarron Data [1])
Information regarding management's Q4 2026 NDR guidance is currently unavailable. The available bound facts do not contain details concerning management's guidance for overall Net Dollar Retention (NDR) in Q4 2026, their commentary on the impact of lapping 2024-2025 price increases, or the expected effect of these factors on the >$100k cohort's NDR in Q1 2027.
Searches yielded limited, non-specific information from a single source. The only search result returned across all queries originated from Cimarron Data, identified as a cross-venue prediction market data aggregator [1]. However, this particular result did not provide specific information relevant to the Net Dollar Retention (NDR) prediction market in question [1]. Consequently, there is insufficient information in the bound facts to assess how management's guidance or commentary might impact the >$100k cohort's NDR in Q1 2027.
Sources (1)
  1. 1Cimarron Datacimarrondata.com

8. Based on Monday.com's historical reporting schedule, when will the Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 financial results be released, and what are the key dates for any preceding investor conferences?

Q4 2026 Results Expectedearly-to-mid February 2027 [1][2][3][4]
Q1 2027 Results Expectedearly-to-mid May 2027 [1][2][3][4][5]
Q1 2027 Net Dollar Retention RateNot yet publicly reported as of November 12, 2026 [2][5][3]
Based on historical reporting patterns, monday.com's Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 earnings dates are projected. monday.com is expected to release its Q4 2026 financial results in early-to-mid February 2027 [1][2][3][4]. The Q1 2027 results are similarly anticipated in early-to-mid May 2027, maintaining consistency with previous reporting schedules [1][2][3][4][5].
Key investor conferences preceded the upcoming financial reporting cycle. Several investor conferences occurred prior to this earnings cycle, including the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 2, 2026 [6], the J.P. Morgan Global TMC Conference on May 19, 2026 [7], and the Elevate '26 Investor Q&A Session held on October 28, 2026 [8]. As of November 12, 2026, the specific net dollar retention rate for the greater than $100k ARR cohort in Q1 2027 has not yet been publicly reported, and this information is expected to become available once monday.com announces its Q1 2027 financial results [2][5][3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1monday.com to Announce Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results on Monday, February 9, 2026 - monday.commonday.com
  2. 2monday.com - monday.com Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Resultsir.monday.com
  3. 3Press Releases - monday.commonday.com
  4. 4monday.com - monday.com Q3 2026 Earnings Callir.monday.com
  5. 5MNDY Investor Alert: monday.com Ltd. Securities Fraud Lawsuit - Investors With Losses May Seek to Lead the Class Action After Allegedly Misleading Investors Over Time: Levi & Korsinskybusinesswire.com
  6. 6monday.com - monday.com Announces Participation in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conferenceir.monday.com
  7. 7monday.com - J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conferenceir.monday.com
  8. 8monday.com - Investor Q&A Session - Elevate '26ir.monday.com

9. What does the growth in Monday.com's >$100k customer count in Q3 and Q4 2026 signal about future expansion potential within that cohort for Q1 2027?

AI ARR Growth (Q2 2026)Doubled from previous quarter [1]
AI Share of New Revenue (Q2 2026)17% of new revenue added [1]
Workforce Reduction (July 2026)About 20% [1]
The provided research does not contain specific information regarding Monday.com's growth in customers paying over $100,000 annually for Q3 and Q4 2026. Consequently, a direct signal from such growth for future expansion potential within that cohort for Q1 2027 cannot be determined from the available data. While record net additions of customers paying over $100,000 and $500,000 annually occurred in Q2 2026, and a record number of net new customers with more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue in Q2 2025, these figures do not cover the requested Q3 and Q4 2026 period [1][2].
The research identifies AI as a new growth vector for Monday.com. In Q2 2026, Monday.com's AI-related annual recurring revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter, now contributing 17% of new revenue added [1]. This development suggests a potential driver for expansion within the greater than $100,000 annual recurring revenue cohort. Furthermore, Monday.com strategically reduced its global workforce by approximately 20% in July 2026, with anticipated cost savings slated for reinvestment into talent, product development, and AI, signaling a clear shift towards AI-powered tools [1].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Monday.com Stock Falls After Q3 Revenue Guidance Misses Wall Street Forecasts | TIKR.comtikr.com
  2. 2Built In roundup highlights monday.com’s growing SaaS market position | Prism Newsprismnews.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The net dollar retention rate for customers exceeding $100,000 in ARR was 113% for Q3 2026, declining from 115% in Q2 2026 and Q1 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. This reflects the 1-2% temporary pressure management anticipated from lapping prior pricing actions [1][2][3][4][5]. The Kalshi prediction market prices the probability of the >$100K ARR cohort NDR exceeding 109% for the quarter ending May 2027 (Q1 2027) at less than 1% [6]. Management guidance projects overall NDR for fiscal 2026 at 108% [7]. Despite retention pressures, the >$100K ARR customer count increased 33% year-over-year to 2,127 as of September 30, 2026, now comprising 31% of total ARR [1][7][5][8]. The >$500K ARR cohort grew 58% year-over-year to 123 customers, representing 7% of ARR [1][7][5][8]. Record net adds were reported in both cohorts in Q2 and Q3 2026 [1][7][5][8].
AI adoption and strategic shifts represent another catalyst. AI ARR reached $36 million in Q3 2026, with AI products' ARR doubling sequentially in Q2 2026 and contributing 17% of net new ARR in that period [1][7][4][8]. The company launched its AI Work Platform in Q1 2026 and agreed to acquire OneAI for voice agent capabilities [1][7][4][8]. Concurrently, a 20% global headcount reduction was announced on July 22, 2026, aimed at repositioning for AI-led growth and leaner operations [7][8][4]. The company fully utilized its $870 million share repurchase authorization in Q2 2026, buying back 2.333 million shares for $182 million that quarter, following 7,269,000 shares for $553 million in Q1 2026 [7][8][4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 07, 2027
  • Closes: September 07, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1monday.com - monday.com Announces Third Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  2. 2Monday.com (MNDY) Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate - Historical Chart & Data - TipRanks.comtipranks.com
  3. 3monday.com (MNDY) Dollar Based Net Retention Ratestockanalysis.com
  4. 4monday.com - monday.com Announces First Quarter 2026 Resultsir.monday.com
  5. 5MNDY · Q2 2026 earnings · Monday.com · Happeninghappening.etoro.app
  6. 6Monday net dollar retention rate for the >$100k arr cohort next quarter Odds & Predictions 2027kalshi.com
  7. 7monday.com (MNDY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | Longbridgelongbridge.com
  8. 8monday.com (MNDY) Stock News & Updates | StockTitanstocktitan.net

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXMNDY-26NOVNDR-117: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXMNDY-26NOVNDR-116: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXMNDY-26NOVNDR-115: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXMNDY-26NOVNDR-114: NO (Nov 09, 2026)
  • KXMNDY-26NOVNDR-113: NO (Nov 09, 2026)