What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Event does not qualify dominates, as Warnock reportedly appeared on a different program on the scheduled date.
- Remaining probability centers on economic themes, consistent with Warnock's recent messaging emphasis.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 20.0% | 11.0% | Senator Warnock consistently advocates for expanding healthcare access and lowering medical costs. |
| Corrupt / Corruption | 1.0% | 0.3% | Corruption and accountability are general topics that politicians may address during interviews. |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 1.0% | 0.3% | Energy costs and their impact on consumers are common subjects in economic discussions. |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 1.0% | 0.3% | Artificial intelligence is a growing area of policy discussion that may be mentioned. |
| Democracy | 1.0% | 0.8% | Senator Warnock often speaks about the importance of protecting democratic institutions and voting rights. |
Current Context
Sources (6)
- 1What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?kalshi.com
- 2Raphael Warnock: Trump 'Doesn't Believe in America'breitbart.com
- 3Warnock: We’re seeing Project 2025 play out ‘before our very eyes’ms.now
- 4Raphael Warnock | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 5Senate Banking Democrats Seek Prediction Market Hearingcoingabbar.com
- 6Senators Speak to Reporters on Capitol Hill About Iran War | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Republican
📉 September 24, 2026: 73.0pp drop
Price decreased from 74.0% to 1.0%
Outcome: Corrupt / Corruption
📉 September 23, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 59.0%
Sources (5)
- 1Man Of God Sen. Raphael Warnock Devastates Trump - Narrative Newsnarrative-news.com
- 2Raphael Warnock: Trump 'Doesn't Believe in America'breitbart.com
- 3Why Warnock says local rules cannot stop license plate reader abuse | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
- 4Sen. Warnock calls for guardrails around Flock surveillance camera usegpb.org
- 5Warnock calls for federal guardrails on Flock cameras amid growing arrests | Police Fire | mdjonline.commdjonline.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi prediction market, titled "Event does not qualify," concerns Raphael Warnock's statements during the "All In with Chris Hayes" episode from September 26, 2023. A YES resolution occurs if his statements are determined not to qualify for a specific positive resolution in any related markets. Conversely, a NO resolution triggers if his statements do qualify under such conditions, with the maximum payout date set for October 7, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Healthcare | $0.01 | $1.00 | 20% |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Corrupt / Corruption | $0.07 | $0.98 | 1% |
| Data Center | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Democracy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Election | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| ICE | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Republican | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tariff | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Trump | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Raphael Warnock is most likely to discuss voting rights and democratic backsliding, having called voting rights a major priority in a May 19, 2026 interview and is likely to advocate passage of the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act or related legislation [1][2][3][4]. He may also address AI-generated health misinformation, having said social media companies should quickly label such material and that Congress needs guardrails and regulations [5]. A relevant prediction market shows "Corrupt / Corruption" at 14% and "AI / Artificial Intelligence" at 2% for a Raphael Warnock mention on September 24, 2026, with "Event does not qualify" at 88% [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Sen. Raphael Warnock on Voting Rights | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 2House Democratic Leaders on John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 3Democratic Leaders News Conference on Reintroduction of the Freedom to Vote Act | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 4Senate Democratic Leaders on John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 5VIDEO: Warnock Calls Out AI Developers, Social Media Companies, After Bizarre Health Hoax » Reverend Raphael Warnockwarnock.senate.gov
- 6What will Mark Rutte say during Fox News: America Reports? - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7Mentions Prediction Markets - Coinbasecoinbase.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Market integrity (20) is below its safety floor, but the score was already under that cap's ceiling, so no cap applied.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What specific statements did Raphael Warnock make about Donald Trump and 'democracy' on other platforms on September 23, 2026, that indicate these will be central themes on 'All In'?
| Warnock's Statement Date | September 23, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Warnock's Characterization of Trump | Does not believe in America or democracy [1][2] |
| Trump's Alleged Anti-Democratic Conduct | All-out attack on the First Amendment, attack on voting rights, wage war against our elections [1][2] |
Sources (8)
- 1Man Of God Sen. Raphael Warnock Devastates Trump - Narrative Newsnarrative-news.com
- 2Raphael Warnock: Trump 'Doesn't Believe in America' | Altoalto.gab.com
- 3Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) / Xx.com
- 4Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock (@SenatorWarnock) / Xx.com
- 5Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) / Xx.com
- 6Clips of Warnock (@TeamWarnock) / Xx.com
- 7What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier? - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8What will Mark Rutte say during Fox News: America Reports? - Cotes Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
7. What actions by the Senate Banking Committee on September 23 could compel Warnock to discuss prediction market regulation during his interview with Chris Hayes?
| Date of Hearing Request | September 23, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Election Market Wagers | $200 million [3] |
| Prediction Market Trading Volume Growth | From $5 billion in September 2025 to $24 billion in April 2026 [4] |
Sources (7)
- 1[PDF] September 23, 2026 The Honorable Tim Scott Chairman U.S....banking.senate.gov
- 2All Banking Committee Democrats Call on Chairman Scott to Hold...banking.senate.gov
- 3Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 4Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Gallego, Banking Colleagues Demand Public Hearing on Prediction...gallego.senate.gov
- 6United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7Raphael Warnock - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
8. How does the emphasis on economic topics like 'healthcare' and 'affordability' in Warnock's recent messaging compare to his focus on political themes like 'democracy' and the 'election'?
| Primary Messaging Focus | Affordability and healthcare [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] |
|---|---|
| Identified Winning Issues for 2026 | Affordability and healthcare [1][2][10] |
| Data Limitation | No transcript for September 23, 2026 appearance for precise word comparison [11][3][4][5][6][12] |
Sources (13)
- 1Raphael Warnock on the race that could decide Senate controlnbcnews.com
- 2Warnock Calls Affordability Crisis a “Spiritual Crisis” in Landmark...warnock.senate.gov
- 3Raphael Warnock - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Georgia election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5United States Senate election in Georgia, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Senate control is at stake for both parties in the competitive race for U.S. Senate in Georgia - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7WARNOCK, RAPHAEL - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
- 8Loeffler, Warnock debate highlights backgrounds, criticismsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 9United States Senate special election in Georgia, 2020 (Loeffler vs...ballotpedia.org
- 10We CAN'T lose sight of this. We WILL vote - Instagraminstagram.com
- 11What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?kalshi.com
- 12United States Senate elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13Sen. Raphael Warnock: Shutdown not about winning or losing - NPRnpr.org
9. Are full transcripts or detailed topic summaries available for Raphael Warnock's previous appearances on 'All In with Chris Hayes' prior to September 2026?
| Full episode transcripts | Available for past appearances, including Sep 14, 2021; Oct 4, 2022 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Video/topic summaries | Available for appearances prior to September 2026, including Jan 30, 2025 [6][7][8][9][10] |
| Kalshi market focus date | September 23, 2026 broadcast [11] |
Sources (14)
- 1Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 10/4/22 - MS NOWms.now
- 2Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 8/22/22 - MS NOWms.now
- 3Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 9/29/22ms.now
- 4Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 5/16/22ms.now
- 5Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 9/14/21ms.now
- 6Warnock: We're seeing Project 2025 play out 'before our very eyes'ms.now
- 7Sen. Warnock on Harris making a play for Georgia - MS NOWms.now
- 8Warnock: Trump using military to convince us 'we are at war with one another'ms.now
- 9Warnock: Voting rights battle is why I know 'I still have work to do' in Senatems.now
- 10Warnock: We saw Jan. 6 ‘metastasize into voter suppression laws’ across Americams.now
- 11What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?kalshi.com
- 12Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock: “I don't know what Bible folks are...instagram.com
- 13I've long been an admirer of Pope Francis and his work to center the...facebook.com
- 14'He ought to read the Bible': Warnock responds to Trump attackms.now
10. What breaking news on September 23 related to Senate AI legislation could have shifted the 'All In' interview focus away from Donald Trump?
| AI Bill Announcement | Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Greg Casar announced a bill to prohibit artificial superintelligence on September 23, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Senate AI Legislation Status | No authoritative confirmation of Senate passage, vote, or formal action on AI legislation on September 23, 2026 [3][4][5] |
| Warnock Interview Focus | Raphael Warnock discussed Donald Trump, not AI legislation, on MS NOW's All In with Chris Hayes on September 23, 2026 [2][6] |
Sources (10)
- 1Proposed legislation would ban artificial superintelligence and...instagram.com
- 2What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?kalshi.com
- 3Congressional Record | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 4Artificial Intelligence Legislation Tracker | Brennan Center for Justicebrennancenter.org
- 5Congress must pass a new federal law on AI governance | Brookingsbrookings.edu
- 6'He is an abject FAILURE': Senator Warnock and Nicolle expose...ms.now
- 7All In with Chris Hayes - NBC Newspodcastfeeds.nbcnews.com
- 8Ohio leads states in number of local ballot measures on data centers for 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 9Daily Brew: September 23, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 10USDA restricts ESG spending in dairy checkoff program - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 07, 2026
- Closes: October 07, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes?kalshi.com
- 2'He is an abject FAILURE': Senator Warnock and Nicolle expose Trump's EXTREME desperation - Main Stream Videosmainstream.whatfinger.com
- 3All In with Chris Hayes - NBC Newspodcastfeeds.nbcnews.com
- 4New York Times Opinion Columnist Ezra Klein on Artificial Intelligence | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 5Christopher Hayes | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
- 6Marc Elias: ‘Louisiana Is Trying to Cancel’ Elections to Gerrymander and Disenfranchise Black Voters:: Grabien - The Multimedia Marketplacegrabien.com
- 7Stacey Abrams Appears on MSNBC’s ‘All In With Chris Hayes’ to Discuss Trump’s Tariffs:: Grabien - The Multimedia Marketplacegrabien.com
- 8Warnock: We're seeing Project 2025 play out 'before our very eyes'ms.now
- 9'He ought to read the Bible': Warnock responds to Trump attackms.now
- 10Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 3/26/21ms.now
- 11Transcript: All In with Chris Hayes, 9/29/22ms.now
- 12Chris Murphy Says ‘The People We Care About Most, the Undocumented Americans... ‘:: Grabien - The Multimedia Marketplacegrabien.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXALLINMENTION-26SEP21-TRUM: NO (Sep 22, 2026)
- KXALLINMENTION-26SEP21-TARI: YES (Sep 22, 2026)
- KXALLINMENTION-26SEP21-SNAP: NO (Sep 22, 2026)
- KXALLINMENTION-26SEP21-OIL: YES (Sep 22, 2026)
- KXALLINMENTION-26SEP21-NQE: NO (Sep 22, 2026)