San Francisco vs Tampa Bay: First Inning Run
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Confirmed starting pitchers for Giants vs. Rays are known.
- Advanced metrics analyze batter-pitcher matchups for first-inning run predictions.
- Hunter Wendelstedt serves as home plate umpire for the game.
- No late lineup changes were reported for Giants vs. Rays.
- Market saw a 35-point probability increase on April 29.
- A subsequent 30-point probability drop occurred on May 1.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 May 01, 2026: 30.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 45.0%
Outcome: Yes
📈 April 29, 2026: 35.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 75.0%
Outcome: Yes
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if either the San Francisco Giants or Tampa Bay Rays score a run in the first inning of their professional baseball game, originally scheduled for May 1, 2026, at 7:10 PM EDT; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 28, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by May 4, 2026, if not resolved earlier. The outcome will be verified from the Governing League (MLB.com), and the market is set to close and expire early if the event occurs.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Who Are the Confirmed Starting Pitchers for Giants vs. Rays?
| Giants Confirmed Starter | Logan Webb [1], [2], [3] |
|---|---|
| Rays Confirmed Starter | Robbie Ray [1], [2], [3] |
| First-Inning Stats Availability | Not directly available from current research [4], [5], [6], [7], [2], [8], [3] |
Sources (8)
- 1Giants Probable Pitchers | San Francisco Giantsmlb.com
- 2Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants, at Tropicana Field, May 1, 2026 Matchups, Preview | Baseball-Reference.comaws.baseball-reference.com
- 3Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants Series May 1-3: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions - Bleacher Nationbleachernation.com
- 4Giants vs. Rays (May 1, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
- 5Robbie Ray 2026 pitching Stats Per Game - MLB - ESPNespn.com
- 6Robbie Ray Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.combaseballsavant.mlb.com
- 7San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays Live Coverage, Stats, and Updates - May 1, 2026 Gametracker - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 8San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays Live Coverage, Stats, and Updates - May 1, 2026 Gametracker - CBS Sportspicks-s1.cbssports.com
6. How Do Advanced Metrics Predict First-Inning Run Probabilities?
| Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) | Measures overall offensive value [1] |
|---|---|
| Isolated Power (ISO) | Quantifies raw power by indicating extra-base hit frequency [1] |
| Key Analysis Factor | Opposing pitcher's handedness (LHP vs RHP) [2] |
Sources (5)
- 1Guts! Tool | FanGraphs Baseballfangraphs.com
- 2Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants, at Tropicana Field, May 1, 2026 Matchups, Preview | Baseball-Reference.comaws.baseball-reference.com
- 3Splits Leaderboards | FanGraphsfangraphs.com
- 4We’ve Added a Handedness Filter to the Major League Leaderboardsblogs.fangraphs.com
- 5Juan Soto - Splits Tool | FanGraphs Baseballfangraphs.com
7. What is the YRFI line movement for Giants-Rays May 1, 2026?
| YRFI Line Movement (Giants vs. Rays, May 1, 2026) | Not available for opening to current lines on high-limit sportsbooks [1]. |
|---|---|
| General Game Odds and Picks (Giants vs. Rays, May 1, 2026) | Available [1] |
| General YRFI Information | Meaning of YRFI explained [2], MLB YRFI percentages [3], and YRFI odds for April 4, 2026 [4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Giants vs. Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks (May 1) | SportsGridsportsgrid.com
- 2YRFI Baseball Meaning (A simple guide for MLB bettors)pinnacleoddsdropper.com
- 3MLB Stats - MLB Team Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) % | TeamRankings.comteamrankings.com
- 4MLB NRFI (no first inning runs) & YRFI (yes first inning runs) Odds (4/4/2026) | Best MLB Lines | Best MLB Lines | BettingProsbettingpros.com
- 5Giants vs. Rays (May 1, 2026) Live Score - ESPNespn.com
8. What Are Hunter Wendelstedt's Umpire Statistics for 2026 Season?
| Home Plate Umpire | Hunter Wendelstedt (SFG vs. TBR, May 1, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Called-Strike Accuracy (2026) | 97.5% (League average 97.2%) [2] |
| K-rate (2026) | 8.1 K/9 (League average 8.0 K/9) [2] |
9. Were late lineup changes reported for Giants vs. Rays on May 1, 2026?
| Reported Late Lineup Changes | None for primary leadoff or cleanup hitters (Multiple sources [1]) |
|---|---|
| Specific Scratched Player Type | No primary leadoff or cleanup hitter scratches reported within 90 minutes of first pitch (Web research [1]) |
| Game Covered | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays, May 1, 2026 ([1]) |
Sources (6)
- 1Giants vs. Rays (May 1, 2026) Pregame - ESPNespn.com
- 2San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays Live Coverage, Stats, and Updates - May 1, 2026 Gametracker - CBS Sportscbssports.com
- 3San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays - MLB Game Summary - May 01, 2026 | USA TODAYsportsdata.usatoday.com
- 4Giants vs. Rays Series Injured List - May 1-3 | FOX Sports AM 1280foxsportsam1280.iheart.com
- 5Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants Series May 1-3: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions - Bleacher Nationbleachernation.com
- 6East Bay Times - San Francisco’s offense was shut out for... | Facebookfacebook.com
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301940TORMIN: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301505KCATH: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301340AZMIL: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301305SFPHI: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBRFI-26APR301310WSHNYM: NO (Apr 30, 2026)