De Jong vs Baez
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Jesper De Jong at 71.5% model vs 53.0% market, driven by evidence that De Jong appears to have already won a match against Baez on a date reportedly different from the market's specification.
1. Executive Verdict
- Jesper De Jong is reported to have defeated Sebastian Baez on July 13, 2026.
- This July 13 De Jong victory may not be the market's specified July 16 match.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper De Jong | 53.0% | 71.5% | Jesper De Jong defeated Sebastian Baez on July 13, 2026, by a score of 7-6(1), 7-5. |
| Sebastian Baez | 49.0% | 28.5% | Jesper De Jong defeated Sebastian Baez on July 13, 2026, which contradicts Baez winning this match. |
Current Context
Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez were initially slated to play on July 16, 2026. The two players were scheduled for an ATP tournament match in Bastad, Sweden [^][^][^][^]. Pre-match analytics showed mixed predictions; some models gave de Jong a slight edge with a 52% win probability, while others anticipated Baez would win in three sets [^][^]. The head-to-head record favored Baez 1-0 [^].
The anticipated match between de Jong and Baez did not occur. On July 16, 2026, Jesper de Jong won his Round of 16 match at the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, with a score of 7-6(1), 7-5 against an opponent [^]. Sebastian Baez was also competing in the Nordea Open and advanced to the next round; however, he was not scheduled to play against Jesper de Jong on that specific date [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, pricing the outcome of a tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez, has traded in a tight, sideways channel. Opening at an even 50.0% probability, the contract saw a brief spike to a high of 56.0% before settling near its current price of 52.0%. The price action reflects the mixed pre-match analytics for the July 16 contest. Some models reportedly gave de Jong a 52% chance of winning, a figure the market is now closely tracking. The narrow 6-point trading range suggests a lack of a clear directional catalyst or consensus among traders.
Volume patterns confirm that activity was concentrated entirely on the day of the match. After opening with zero volume, trading swelled to over 127,000 contracts on July 16. This surge in activity did not produce a breakout, indicating that the new volume was balanced between buyers and sellers, reinforcing the market's state of equilibrium. The 50.0% level has acted as a firm floor, while resistance formed at the 56.0% peak.
Overall, market sentiment implies a slight edge for de Jong but with very low conviction. The price has consistently held above the 50.0% coin-flip line but has been unable to sustain any significant upward momentum. The price action aligns directly with external forecasts that were themselves divided, producing a market that is effectively priced for uncertainty.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if Jesper De Jong wins the 2026 ATP Bastad Round Of 16 professional tennis match against Baez after a ball has been played; otherwise, it resolves "No." If a player withdraws or forfeits after the match begins, that player resolves "No" for the main market. The market opened on July 15, 2026, and closes upon a winner being declared or by July 30, 2026. If the match does not begin, or prop markets cannot be definitively determined due to a withdrawal or forfeit after the match starts, they will resolve to a fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper De Jong | $0.53 | $0.49 | 53% |
| Sebastian Baez | $0.49 | $0.53 | 49% |
Market Discussion
On July 16, 2026, Jesper de Jong defeated eighth-seeded Sebastian Baez 7-6(1), 7-5 in their Round of 16 match at the ATP Swedish Open in Bastad [^][^][^]. Prior to the event, prediction markets indicated a 55-56% implied win probability for De Jong, with professional analysts also expressing a slight preference for him due to recent clay court form [^][^][^][^][^]. This favored outlook for De Jong occurred despite Sebastian Baez holding a slightly higher ATP Elo rating of approximately 1744.8 compared to De Jong's 1718.5 entering the match [^].
4. How do Jesper De Jong's and Sebastian Baez's recent performances on clay courts compare heading into the Bastad tournament?
| Jesper De Jong 2026 Clay Win Rate | 64.52% (20-11 record) [^] |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez 2026 Clay Win Rate | 56.52% (13-10 record) [^] |
| Head-to-head record | Sebastian Baez leads 1-0 [^][^] |
Jesper De Jong shows stronger clay court performance this season. He has demonstrated a strong performance on red clay during the 2026 season, achieving a 64.52% win rate with a 20-11 record [^]. His clay court season was highlighted by a notable run at Roland Garros as a lucky loser and participation in various ATP-level events throughout the spring [^]. Despite these achievements, he experienced early exits in some tournaments, including losses to Laslo Djere in Parma and Cristian Garin in Monte Carlo [^][^][^].
Sebastian Baez's clay season has yielded varied results. He has also competed on clay in the 2026 season, posting a 56.52% win rate with a 13-10 record [^]. His results have been varied, featuring early exits in tournaments such as Barcelona and Monte Carlo, but also participation in the Bucharest ATP 250 tournament [^][^][^]. Notably, Baez holds a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head series against Jesper De Jong [^][^]. Baez entered the Bastad tournament as the eighth seed and is currently active in the event [^][^][^].
The upcoming match between De Jong and Baez is tightly projected. Prediction models and betting projections for their upcoming match on July 16, 2026, at the Bastad Open indicate a closely contested encounter [^][^]. While some models give a slight advantage to Jesper De Jong, others consider Sebastian Baez a traditional favorite in clay events below the Masters 1000 level [^][^].
5. How do the current betting markets and prominent tennis analytics models assess the probabilities for the De Jong vs. Baez match?
| Jesper De Jong Moneyline | -137 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez Implied Probability | 64% (1.57 odds) [^][^] |
| Jesper De Jong Win Probability (Analytics) | 52% [^][^][^] |
Betting markets show mixed opinions on the De Jong vs. Baez match. Sources are divided regarding the favorite in the Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez match at the 2026 Nordea Open, with some listing De Jong as the favorite at a -137 moneyline [^][^]. Conversely, other sources identify Baez as the favorite with 1.57 odds, which translates to an approximate 64% implied probability [^][^]. Additionally, there appears to be a scheduling discrepancy for this match at the ATP Bastad tournament; as of July 16, 2026, it was listed as a scheduled R16 match, yet records indicate it was set to be played on July 13, 2026, suggesting it might have already concluded [^][^][^].
Tennis analytics models predict a very close match between De Jong and Baez. These models uniformly suggest a tight contest for the scheduled encounter [^][^][^]. The Dimers model, for instance, assigns De Jong a 52% win probability [^][^], while Forebet's algorithm similarly predicts a 52% advantage for De Jong [^][^][^]. Although Tennis Abstract offers various predictive models, precise percentage probabilities for this specific July 16, 2026, matchup were not explicitly available in the current sources retrieved [^][^].
6. What are the key physical factors, such as recent match fatigue or reported injuries, that could affect either player's performance on July 16?
| Jesper de Jong's Status (July 14, 2026) | Reported abdominal discomfort during training [^] |
|---|---|
| Official Injury Reports (Pre-July 16, 2026) | None for Jesper de Jong or Sebastian Baez [^][^] |
| Upcoming Match Details | Jesper de Jong vs. Sebastian Baez, ATP Swedish Open R16, July 16, 2026 [^][^] |
Jesper de Jong reported abdominal discomfort before July 16 match. As of July 14, 2026, Jesper de Jong reported experiencing abdominal discomfort during recent training sessions [^]. Despite this personal account, there were no credible reports or official announcements regarding specific injury or match fatigue issues affecting either Jesper de Jong or Sebastian Baez prior to their scheduled match on July 16, 2026 [^][^].
7. What does the official head-to-head record between Sebastian Baez and Jesper De Jong indicate about their previous matchups?
| Head-to-Head (after July 13, 2026) | Jesper De Jong leads 1-0 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Head-to-Head (before July 13, 2026) | Sebastian Baez led 1-0 [^][^][^][^] |
| Latest Match Result | Jesper De Jong defeated Sebastian Baez 7-6(1), 7-5 [^][^] |
Sebastian Baez held a 1-0 lead in previous encounters prior to the July 13, 2026 match [^] [^] [^] [^] . Jesper De Jong 24.01.2020 - M15 Monastir | TennisLive.it" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Their only recorded professional match before this date occurred on January 24, 2020, at the M15 Monastir tournament. Baez won this match in three sets with a score of 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 [^][^][^].
8. How do Sebastian Baez and Jesper De Jong compare on crucial serving and returning metrics throughout the current ATP season?
| Jesper de Jong 2026 Service Rating | 70.4% [^] |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez 2026 Return Rating | 35.5% [^] |
| Career 1st Serve Return Win Rate | Sebastian Baez 32% [^], Jesper de Jong 27% [^] |
Jesper de Jong shows stronger overall serving than Sebastian Baez this season. In the 2026 ATP Tour season, de Jong has recorded a 70.4% service rating and a 33.1% return rating [^]. Sebastian Baez's return rating for the 2026 season is 35.5% [^]. While comprehensive overall serving numbers for Baez in 2026 are not fully available, he has demonstrated improved serving on grass for the current season, winning approximately 66% of service points and 72% of first-serve points [^].
Sebastian Baez exhibits a stronger career record in return point win rates. Across their ATP careers, Baez holds higher win rates on both 1st and 2nd serve return points compared to de Jong [^][^]. Specifically, Baez has a 32% win rate on 1st serve return points and 51% on 2nd serve return points, whereas de Jong has a 27% win rate on 1st serve return points and 47% on 2nd serve return points [^][^]. In terms of match dynamics, Jesper De Jong tends to engage in longer matches, winning marginally more total games and points on average with 51% of points, while Sebastian Baez maintains parity across metrics with 50% of points [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez was scheduled for the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, in mid-July 2026, not on July 30, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^][^]. Multiple sources confirmed this round of 16 match was to occur around July 16, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. The Bastad tournament concludes by July 19, 2026 [^][^]. The ATP Tour schedule for July 30, 2026, features tournaments like the Mubadala Citi DC Open in Washington, D.C., and potentially others, but not the Bastad event [^][^].
Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez already competed in the Nordea Open on July 13, 2026, in Bastad, Sweden [^] [^] [^] [^] . Sebastian Baez defeated Jesper de Jong 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 in that match [^][^][^][^]. As of July 16, 2026, Sebastian Baez is still in the Bastad draw and is scheduled to play a quarterfinal match [^]. There is no scheduled ATP match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez on July 30, 2026, as the ATP Tour schedule for that week includes events such as the Plava Laguna Croatia Open in Umag and the Mifel Tennis Open in Los Cabos [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 30, 2026
- Closes: July 30, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez was scheduled for the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, in mid-July 2026, not on July 30, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Multiple sources confirmed this round of 16 match was to occur around July 16, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The Bastad tournament concludes by July 19, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The ATP Tour schedule for July 30, 2026, features tournaments like the Mubadala Citi DC Open in Washington, D.C., and potentially others, but not the Bastad event [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXATPMATCH-26JUL16MERDRO-MER: YES (Jul 16, 2026)
- KXATPMATCH-26JUL16MERDRO-DRO: NO (Jul 16, 2026)
- KXATPMATCH-26JUL16FARRUU-RUU: YES (Jul 16, 2026)
- KXATPMATCH-26JUL16FARRUU-FAR: NO (Jul 16, 2026)
- KXATPMATCH-26JUL15VANDRO-VAN: NO (Jul 15, 2026)
