Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Jesper De Jong at 71.5% model vs 53.0% market, driven by evidence that De Jong appears to have already won a match against Baez on a date reportedly different from the market's specification.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, pricing the outcome of a tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez, has traded in a tight, sideways channel. Opening at an even 50.0% probability, the contract saw a brief spike to a high of 56.0% before settling near its current price of 52.0%. The price action reflects the mixed pre-match analytics for the July 16 contest. Some models reportedly gave de Jong a 52% chance of winning, a figure the market is now closely tracking. The narrow 6-point trading range suggests a lack of a clear directional catalyst or consensus among traders.
Volume patterns confirm that activity was concentrated entirely on the day of the match. After opening with zero volume, trading swelled to over 127,000 contracts on July 16. This surge in activity did not produce a breakout, indicating that the new volume was balanced between buyers and sellers, reinforcing the market's state of equilibrium. The 50.0% level has acted as a firm floor, while resistance formed at the 56.0% peak.
Overall, market sentiment implies a slight edge for de Jong but with very low conviction. The price has consistently held above the 50.0% coin-flip line but has been unable to sustain any significant upward momentum. The price action aligns directly with external forecasts that were themselves divided, producing a market that is effectively priced for uncertainty.
  • Jesper De Jong is reported to have defeated Sebastian Baez on July 13, 2026.
  • This July 13 De Jong victory may not be the market's specified July 16 match.

Current Context

Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez were initially slated to play on July 16, 2026. The two players were scheduled for an ATP tournament match in Bastad, Sweden [1][2][3][4]. Pre-match analytics showed mixed predictions; some models gave de Jong a slight edge with a 52% win probability, while others anticipated Baez would win in three sets [5][4]. The head-to-head record favored Baez 1-0 [4].
The anticipated match between de Jong and Baez did not occur. On July 16, 2026, Jesper de Jong won his Round of 16 match at the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, with a score of 7-6(1), 7-5 against an opponent [6]. Sebastian Baez was also competing in the Nordea Open and advanced to the next round; however, he was not scheduled to play against Jesper de Jong on that specific date [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Sebastian Baez vs Jesper De Jong H2H & Live Scorestennisstats.com
  2. 2Jesper De Jong Sebastián Báez live score and H2H resultssofascore.com
  3. 3Jesper De Jong v Sebastian Baez LIVE 16/07/2026 | Tennisflashscoreusa.com
  4. 4H2H, prediction of Sebastian Baez vs Jesper De Jong in...tennistonic.com
  5. 5J. De Jong vs S. Baez tennis predictions and statsforebet.com
  6. 6Bastad | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  7. 7ATP Live Rankings | PIF ATP Rankings (Singles)atptour.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if Jesper De Jong wins the 2026 ATP Bastad Round Of 16 professional tennis match against Baez after a ball has been played; otherwise, it resolves "No." If a player withdraws or forfeits after the match begins, that player resolves "No" for the main market. The market opened on July 15, 2026, and closes upon a winner being declared or by July 30, 2026. If the match does not begin, or prop markets cannot be definitively determined due to a withdrawal or forfeit after the match starts, they will resolve to a fair price.

Market Discussion

On July 16, 2026, Jesper de Jong defeated eighth-seeded Sebastian Baez 7-6(1), 7-5 in their Round of 16 match at the ATP Swedish Open in Bastad [1][2][3]. Prior to the event, prediction markets indicated a 55-56% implied win probability for De Jong, with professional analysts also expressing a slight preference for him due to recent clay court form [4][5][6][7][8]. This favored outlook for De Jong occurred despite Sebastian Baez holding a slightly higher ATP Elo rating of approximately 1744.8 compared to De Jong's 1718.5 entering the match [9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Jesper De Jong Sebastián Báez live score and H2H resultssofascore.com
  2. 2Jesper De Jong v Sebastian Baez LIVE 16/07/2026 | Tennisflashscoreusa.com
  3. 3Bastad | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  4. 4Swedish Open: Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Odds &...polymarket.com
  5. 5July 16, 2026: De Jong vs Baez Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6J. De Jong vs S. Baez tennis predictions and statsforebet.com
  7. 7Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026dimers.com
  8. 8Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Preview & Prediction | 2026 Swedish Open (Nordea Open) | Round of 16 - The Stats Zonethestatszone.com
  9. 9Tennis Abstract: ATP Elo Ratingstennisabstract.com

4. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Jul 16, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality76
Healthy
Liquidity
76

2 contracts · worst first

Sebastian Baez75
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.1% of price over 14 traded bars

Jesper De Jong77
Tradeable · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.9% of price over 18 traded bars

Move quality
—

No reading right now

2 contracts · worst first

Jesper De Jong—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.08 log-odds, 2.0c, vol 101,474

Sebastian Baez—
No significant move

No significant move: |move| 0.04 log-odds, 1.0c, vol 75,652

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

2 contracts · worst first

Jesper De Jong95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Sebastian Baez95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Jul 16, 2026

5. How do Jesper De Jong's and Sebastian Baez's recent performances on clay courts compare heading into the Bastad tournament?

Jesper De Jong 2026 Clay Win Rate64.52% (20-11 record) [1]
Sebastian Baez 2026 Clay Win Rate56.52% (13-10 record) [1]
Head-to-head recordSebastian Baez leads 1-0 [2][3]
Jesper De Jong shows stronger clay court performance this season. He has demonstrated a strong performance on red clay during the 2026 season, achieving a 64.52% win rate with a 20-11 record [1]. His clay court season was highlighted by a notable run at Roland Garros as a lucky loser and participation in various ATP-level events throughout the spring [4]. Despite these achievements, he experienced early exits in some tournaments, including losses to Laslo Djere in Parma and Cristian Garin in Monte Carlo [5][6][7].
Sebastian Baez's clay season has yielded varied results. He has also competed on clay in the 2026 season, posting a 56.52% win rate with a 13-10 record [1]. His results have been varied, featuring early exits in tournaments such as Barcelona and Monte Carlo, but also participation in the Bucharest ATP 250 tournament [8][9][10]. Notably, Baez holds a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head series against Jesper De Jong [2][3]. Baez entered the Bastad tournament as the eighth seed and is currently active in the event [8][11][12].
The upcoming match between De Jong and Baez is tightly projected. Prediction models and betting projections for their upcoming match on July 16, 2026, at the Bastad Open indicate a closely contested encounter [13][14]. While some models give a slight advantage to Jesper De Jong, others consider Sebastian Baez a traditional favorite in clay events below the Masters 1000 level [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1De Jong, Jesper vs Baez, Sebastian predictions, betting tips, stats | 2026-07-16protipster.com
  2. 2ATP Bastad Day 4 Predictions Including Rublev vs Pellegrinolastwordonsports.com
  3. 3Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Prediction H2H & Best...matchstat.com
  4. 4Birthday boy De Jong rides lucky loser run into Zverev clashatptour.com
  5. 5Jesper de Jong | Player Activity | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  6. 6Tennis Abstract: Laslo Djere Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  7. 7Tennis Abstract: Cristian Garin Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  8. 8Tennis Abstract: 2026 Barcelona Tournament Results, Stats, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  9. 9Carlos Alcaraz on battle for No. 1: 'I'm going to lose it at...atptour.com
  10. 10Rain all but wipes out Thursday's R2 action in Bucharestatptour.com
  11. 11Bastad | Overview | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  12. 12Bastad | Draws | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  13. 13Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026dimers.com
  14. 14J. De Jong vs S. Baez tennis predictions and statsforebet.com

6. How do the current betting markets and prominent tennis analytics models assess the probabilities for the De Jong vs. Baez match?

Jesper De Jong Moneyline-137 [1][2]
Sebastian Baez Implied Probability64% (1.57 odds) [1][2]
Jesper De Jong Win Probability (Analytics)52% [3][4][5]
Betting markets show mixed opinions on the De Jong vs. Baez match. Sources are divided regarding the favorite in the Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez match at the 2026 Nordea Open, with some listing De Jong as the favorite at a -137 moneyline [1][2]. Conversely, other sources identify Baez as the favorite with 1.57 odds, which translates to an approximate 64% implied probability [1][2]. Additionally, there appears to be a scheduling discrepancy for this match at the ATP Bastad tournament; as of July 16, 2026, it was listed as a scheduled R16 match, yet records indicate it was set to be played on July 13, 2026, suggesting it might have already concluded [6][7][8].
Tennis analytics models predict a very close match between De Jong and Baez. These models uniformly suggest a tight contest for the scheduled encounter [3][4][5]. The Dimers model, for instance, assigns De Jong a 52% win probability [4][5], while Forebet's algorithm similarly predicts a 52% advantage for De Jong [3][4][5]. Although Tennis Abstract offers various predictive models, precise percentage probabilities for this specific July 16, 2026, matchup were not explicitly available in the current sources retrieved [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Baez vs De Jong Picks, Predictions & Odds for Bastad...sportsbettingdime.com
  2. 2De Jong, Jesper vs Baez, Sebastian predictions, betting tips, stats | 2026-07-16protipster.com
  3. 3J. De Jong vs S. Baez tennis predictions and statsforebet.com
  4. 4Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026dimers.com
  5. 5Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction for ATP...dimers.com
  6. 6Bastad | Daily Schedule | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  7. 7Jesper De Jong Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  8. 8Sebastian Baez Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  9. 9Tennis Abstract: 2026 ATP Bastad Results and Forecasttennisabstract.com
  10. 10Forecasting – Heavy Topspintennisabstract.com

7. What are the key physical factors, such as recent match fatigue or reported injuries, that could affect either player's performance on July 16?

Jesper de Jong's Status (July 14, 2026)Reported abdominal discomfort during training [1]
Official Injury Reports (Pre-July 16, 2026)None for Jesper de Jong or Sebastian Baez [2][3]
Upcoming Match DetailsJesper de Jong vs. Sebastian Baez, ATP Swedish Open R16, July 16, 2026 [4][5]
Jesper de Jong reported abdominal discomfort before July 16 match. As of July 14, 2026, Jesper de Jong reported experiencing abdominal discomfort during recent training sessions [1]. Despite this personal account, there were no credible reports or official announcements regarding specific injury or match fatigue issues affecting either Jesper de Jong or Sebastian Baez prior to their scheduled match on July 16, 2026 [2][3].
Both players faced off at the ATP Swedish Open. Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez were scheduled to compete against each other in the round of 16 at the ATP Swedish Open in Båstad. This particular match was slated to take place on July 16, 2026 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1A lot of matches. An injury. Countless challenges. But we...instagram.com
  2. 2ATP Bastad Media Notes - Day 4.docxatptour.com
  3. 3Revised 2026 ATP Bastad Media Notesatptour.com
  4. 4Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026dimers.com
  5. 5De Jong, Jesper vs Baez, Sebastian predictions, betting tips, stats | 2026-07-16protipster.com

8. What does the official head-to-head record between Sebastian Baez and Jesper De Jong indicate about their previous matchups?

Head-to-Head (after July 13, 2026)Jesper De Jong leads 1-0 [1][2]
Head-to-Head (before July 13, 2026)Sebastian Baez led 1-0 [3][4][5][6]
Latest Match ResultJesper De Jong defeated Sebastian Baez 7-6(1), 7-5 [1][2]
Jesper De Jong currently leads their head-to-head record 1-0, following their most recent match against Sebastian Baez on July 13, 2026. In this encounter, De Jong secured the victory with a score of 7-6(1), 7-5 [1][2].
Sebastian Baez held a 1-0 lead in previous encounters prior to the July 13, 2026 match [3][4][5][6]. Their only recorded professional match before this date occurred on January 24, 2020, at the M15 Monastir tournament. Baez won this match in three sets with a score of 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 [3][4][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Sebastian Baez Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  2. 2Jesper De Jong Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  3. 3Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez Prediction H2H & Best...matchstat.com
  4. 4H2H, prediction of Sebastian Baez vs Jesper De Jong in...tennistonic.com
  5. 5Baez vs De Jong Picks, Predictions & Odds for Bastad...sportsbettingdime.com
  6. 6Sebastian Baez vs. Jesper De Jong 24.01.2020 - M15 Monastir | TennisLive.ittennislive.it

9. How do Sebastian Baez and Jesper De Jong compare on crucial serving and returning metrics throughout the current ATP season?

Jesper de Jong 2026 Service Rating70.4% [1]
Sebastian Baez 2026 Return Rating35.5% [1]
Career 1st Serve Return Win RateSebastian Baez 32% [2], Jesper de Jong 27% [3]
Jesper de Jong shows stronger overall serving than Sebastian Baez this season. In the 2026 ATP Tour season, de Jong has recorded a 70.4% service rating and a 33.1% return rating [1]. Sebastian Baez's return rating for the 2026 season is 35.5% [1]. While comprehensive overall serving numbers for Baez in 2026 are not fully available, he has demonstrated improved serving on grass for the current season, winning approximately 66% of service points and 72% of first-serve points [4].
Sebastian Baez exhibits a stronger career record in return point win rates. Across their ATP careers, Baez holds higher win rates on both 1st and 2nd serve return points compared to de Jong [2][3]. Specifically, Baez has a 32% win rate on 1st serve return points and 51% on 2nd serve return points, whereas de Jong has a 27% win rate on 1st serve return points and 47% on 2nd serve return points [2][3]. In terms of match dynamics, Jesper De Jong tends to engage in longer matches, winning marginally more total games and points on average with 51% of points, while Sebastian Baez maintains parity across metrics with 50% of points [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1TDI Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  2. 2Sebastian Baez | Player Statsatptour.com
  3. 3Jesper de Jong | Player Stats | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  4. 4De Jong, Jesper vs Baez, Sebastian predictions, betting tips, stats | 2026-07-16protipster.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez was scheduled for the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, in mid-July 2026, not on July 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Multiple sources confirmed this round of 16 match was to occur around July 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. The Bastad tournament concludes by July 19, 2026 [6][7]. The ATP Tour schedule for July 30, 2026, features tournaments like the Mubadala Citi DC Open in Washington, D.C., and potentially others, but not the Bastad event [6][7].
Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez already competed in the Nordea Open on July 13, 2026, in Bastad, Sweden [8][9][10][11]. Sebastian Baez defeated Jesper de Jong 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 in that match [8][9][10][11]. As of July 16, 2026, Sebastian Baez is still in the Bastad draw and is scheduled to play a quarterfinal match [12]. There is no scheduled ATP match between Jesper de Jong and Sebastian Baez on July 30, 2026, as the ATP Tour schedule for that week includes events such as the Plava Laguna Croatia Open in Umag and the Mifel Tennis Open in Los Cabos [13][14][15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 30, 2026
  • Closes: July 30, 2026
Sources (15)
  1. 1Jesper De Jong vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Swedish Open 2026dimers.com
  2. 2Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Betting Tips & Live Stream – Bastad Match Previewfreetips.com
  3. 3Jesper de Jong vs Sebastian Baez Preview & Predictionthestatszone.com
  4. 4H2H, prediction of Sebastian Baez vs Jesper De Jong in...tennistonic.com
  5. 5Sebastian Baez vs Jesper De Jong H2H & Live Scorestennisstats.com
  6. 6ATP Calendar 2026: Official Dates, Surfaces & Drawstennissignals.com
  7. 72026 ATP Tour Calendar - Tennis Tour Calendartennistourcalendar.com
  8. 8Bastad | Results | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  9. 9ATP Bastad Media Notes - Day 4.docxatptour.com
  10. 10Jesper De Jong Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  11. 11Sebastian Baez Match Results, Splits, and Analysistennisabstract.com
  12. 12Rublev recovers from second-set mishap to advance in...atptour.com
  13. 132026 CALENDARatptour.com
  14. 14Tournaments | ATP Tour | Tennisatptour.com
  15. 15What is the 2026 ATP Tour calendar?atptour.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXATPMATCH-26JUL16MERDRO-MER: YES (Jul 16, 2026)
  • KXATPMATCH-26JUL16MERDRO-DRO: NO (Jul 16, 2026)
  • KXATPMATCH-26JUL16FARRUU-RUU: YES (Jul 16, 2026)
  • KXATPMATCH-26JUL16FARRUU-FAR: NO (Jul 16, 2026)
  • KXATPMATCH-26JUL15VANDRO-VAN: NO (Jul 15, 2026)