Topic tracker · Sports
ATP Tennis Match
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 73 so far (0 live, 73 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new ATP Tennis Match markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 16, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molcan vs Davidovich Fokina | July 30, 2026 | 24.7% vs 44.0% | Report → |
| Shevchenko vs Stricker | July 30, 2026 | 73.1% vs 54.0% | Report → |
| De Jong vs Baez | July 30, 2026 | 71.5% vs 53.0% | Report → |
| Rinderknech vs Tabur | July 28, 2026 | 0.0% vs 9.0% | Report → |
| Fery vs Zverev | July 24, 2026 | 1.5% vs 2.0% | Report → |
| Fritz vs Zverev | July 22, 2026 | 56.4% vs 53.0% | Report → |
| Cobolli vs Fery | July 22, 2026 | 74.4% vs 72.0% | Report → |
| Lehecka vs Zverev | July 20, 2026 | 6.7% vs 8.0% | Report → |
| Bergs vs Fery | July 18, 2026 | 55.4% vs 56.0% | Report → |
| Rinderknech vs Djokovic | July 17, 2026 | 15.4% vs 23.0% | Report → |
| Jodar vs Mochizuki | July 17, 2026 | 44.6% vs 45.0% | Report → |
| Duckworth vs Cobolli | July 16, 2026 | 25.5% vs 36.0% | Report → |
| Berrettini vs Fils | July 16, 2026 | 70.0% vs 77.0% | Report → |
| Jacquet vs Bublik | July 16, 2026 | 19.2% vs 22.0% | Report → |
| Diallo vs Sonego | July 16, 2026 | 0.0% vs 14.0% | Report → |
| Mejia vs Zheng | July 15, 2026 | 7.9% vs 8.0% | Report → |
| Arnaldi vs Halys | July 13, 2026 | 0.7% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Humbert vs Bergs | July 13, 2026 | 19.0% vs 17.0% | Report → |
| Sinner vs Kecmanovic | July 13, 2026 | 99.3% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| Shelton vs Quinn | July 2, 2026 | 80.2% vs 81.0% | Report → |
| Bublik vs Fritz | June 27, 2026 | 35.7% vs 29.0% | Report → |
| Shelton vs Giron | June 24, 2026 | 26.9% vs 46.0% | Report → |
| Borges vs Cilic | June 24, 2026 | 87.2% vs 80.0% | Report → |
| Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli | June 17, 2026 | 57.9% vs 54.0% | Report → |
| Navone vs Mensik | June 10, 2026 | 58.4% vs 55.0% | Report → |
| Griekspoor vs Arnaldi | June 8, 2026 | 3.1% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| Spizzirri vs Tiafoe | June 8, 2026 | 19.7% vs 32.0% | Report → |
| Davidovich Fokina vs Dzumhur | June 7, 2026 | 60.6% vs 64.0% | Report → |
| Llamas Ruiz vs Tirante | June 8, 2026 | 8.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Ruud vs Navone | June 5, 2026 | 88.2% vs 83.0% | Report → |
| Samuel vs Goffin | June 2, 2026 | 84.6% vs 84.0% | Report → |
| Faria vs Dimitrov | June 1, 2026 | 42.5% vs 49.0% | Report → |
| Ruud vs Darderi | May 29, 2026 | 86.4% vs 74.0% | Report → |
| Landaluce vs Medvedev | May 28, 2026 | 25.8% vs 30.0% | Report → |
| Sinner vs Rublev | May 28, 2026 | 96.2% vs 96.0% | Report → |
| Llamas Ruiz vs Medvedev | May 24, 2026 | 20.7% vs 38.0% | Report → |
| Tiafoe vs Pellegrino | May 25, 2026 | 8.6% vs 10.0% | Report → |
| Blockx vs Zverev | May 24, 2026 | 13.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| Tien vs Bublik | May 24, 2026 | 28.4% vs 36.0% | Report → |
| Cina vs Blockx | May 20, 2026 | 12.2% vs 16.0% | Report → |
| Fearnley vs Mpetshi Perricard | May 20, 2026 | 22.8% vs 18.0% | Report → |
| Kypson vs Droguet | May 19, 2026 | 62.3% vs 75.0% | Report → |
| Ruud vs Blockx | May 14, 2026 | 25.0% vs 17.0% | Report → |
| Shelton vs Prizmic | May 8, 2026 | 30.0% vs 36.0% | Report → |
| Sakamoto vs Gaubas | May 5, 2026 | 34.7% vs 35.0% | Report → |
| Cobolli vs Shelton | May 3, 2026 | 15.5% vs 20.0% | Report → |
| Zverev vs Cobolli | May 2, 2026 | 60.8% vs 49.0% | Report → |
| Machac vs Rublev | May 1, 2026 | 15.9% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| Zverev vs Cerundolo | May 1, 2026 | 68.8% vs 74.0% | Report → |
| Blockx vs Shelton | April 29, 2026 | 19.2% vs 18.0% | Report → |
| de Minaur vs Medjedovic | April 29, 2026 | 63.3% vs 68.0% | Report → |
| Zverev vs Kecmanovic | April 26, 2026 | 86.7% vs 81.0% | Report → |
| Griekspoor vs Shapovalov | April 26, 2026 | 23.3% vs 31.0% | Report → |
| Molcan vs Bublik | April 28, 2026 | 30.4% vs 27.0% | Report → |
| Diallo vs Sachko | April 27, 2026 | 77.5% vs 61.0% | Report → |
| Etcheverry vs Draper | April 26, 2026 | 48.0% vs 44.0% | Report → |
| Alcaraz vs Sinner | April 26, 2026 | 49.0% vs 50.0% | Report → |
| Zverev vs Sinner | April 25, 2026 | 3.3% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| Auger-Aliassime vs Ruud | April 23, 2026 | 89.5% vs 92.0% | Report → |
| Garin vs Zverev | April 21, 2026 | 86.0% vs 88.0% | Report → |
| Medvedev vs Berrettini | April 22, 2026 | 63.1% vs 60.0% | Report → |
| Lehecka vs Nava | April 20, 2026 | 93.0% vs 91.0% | Report → |
| Navone vs Van de Zandschulp | April 18, 2026 | 42.6% vs 35.0% | Report → |
| Kopriva vs Medjedovic | April 12, 2026 | 75.0% vs 82.0% | Report → |
| Molcan vs Clarke | April 13, 2026 | 67.6% vs 65.0% | Report → |
| Cerundolo vs Majchrzak | April 12, 2026 | 14.9% vs 15.0% | Report → |
| Tiafoe vs Cazaux | April 4, 2026 | 80.0% vs 72.0% | Report → |
| Diallo vs Humbert | April 4, 2026 | 35.0% vs 35.0% | Report → |
| Rublev vs Tabilo | April 3, 2026 | 68.9% vs 58.0% | Report → |
| Kouame vs Svajda | April 1, 2026 | 5.0% vs 64.0% | Report → |
| Buse vs Wong | March 31, 2026 | 59.0% vs 47.0% | Report → |
| Vukic vs Harris | March 30, 2026 | 100.0% vs 73.0% | Report → |
| Tiafoe vs Bellucci | March 13, 2026 | 71.9% vs 78.5% | Report → |
