New ballot drops in the Alaska Senate race on Friday, November 13, 2026, widened Democrat Mary Peltola's lead over incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan, prompting a significant repricing in prediction markets for her final margin of victory. While contracts for a Peltola win by 2.5 to 4.5 points saw their probabilities surge on high volume, one contract for a landslide victory of 5.5 points or more corrected sharply downward. This shift suggests traders are growing more confident in a Peltola victory but are converging on a final margin closer to the one indicated by the latest vote tallies.
As of Friday evening, Peltola leads Sullivan by 10,412 votes, a margin of approximately 3.75 percentage points, with an estimated 96% of the expected vote counted. In response, the probability of Peltola winning by 4.5 points or more jumped 31 percentage points to 53% on the Kalshi exchange. At the same time, the probability of her winning by 5.5 points or more fell 75 points to 6%, indicating a major reallocation of expectations from a blowout victory to a more moderate, but still decisive, outcome.
Distribution Analysis
The market activity shows a clear consolidation of probability into the 2.5-to-4.5-point margin range for Peltola. Twelve of the fourteen listed outcomes saw their probabilities rise, driven by significant trading volume. The contract for a victory of 4.5 points or more was the largest gainer and saw the most volume, suggesting this is where traders see the most likely range of outcomes converging. The single declining contract, for a win of 5.5+ points, moved on comparatively low volume.
| Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 1+ pts | 99% | ~0pp | 50 |
| Mary Peltola, 2+ pts | 99% | +4.4pp | 5,318 |
| Mary Peltola, 0.5+ pts | 99% | +3.4pp | 100 |
| Mary Peltola, 2.5+ pts | 98% | +15.4pp | 1,597 |
| Mary Peltola, 3+ pts | 98% | +17.0pp | 7,018 |
| Mary Peltola, 1.5+ pts | 98% | +7.7pp | 2,625 |
| Mary Peltola, 3.5+ pts | 97% | +21.1pp | 17,116 |
| Mary Peltola, 4+ pts | 89% | +28.0pp | 25,294 |
| Mary Peltola, 4.5+ pts | 53% | +31.0pp | 37,175 |
| Mary Peltola, 5+ pts | 7% | +4.0pp | 8,085 |
| Mary Peltola, 5.5+ pts | 6% | -75.0pp | 1,051 |
| Mary Peltola, 6+ pts | 3% | +3.0pp | 754 |
| Mary Peltola, 8+ pts | 0% | +6.1pp | 26 |
| Mary Peltola, 10+ pts | 0% | +1.0pp | 26 |
Net: 12 of 14 contracts rose on a combined volume of 105,132, while one declined on a volume of 1,051, shifting the implied consensus margin for a Peltola victory into a narrower, more moderate range.
What's Driving the Shift
The repricing appears to be a direct reaction to new, publicly available election data that provides greater clarity on the likely final outcome.
Friday Ballot Updates: The primary driver was the release of approximately 22,500 new ballots on Friday by the Alaska Division of Elections. This update expanded Peltola’s first-choice lead to 49.84% against Sullivan’s 46.09%. With few votes left to count, traders are using this ~3.75-point margin as a strong anchor for their expectations, pulling probability away from higher-end outcomes.
Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) Projections: With Peltola unlikely to secure an outright majority in the first round, the race will be decided by a ranked-choice tabulation. An analysis of preliminary RCV data by FairVote suggests Peltola would defeat Sullivan 50.5% to 49.5% after second- and third-choice preferences from eliminated candidates are redistributed. This provides a backstop for a Peltola victory, keeping the probability of a win near 99%, but the narrow projected RCV margin tempers expectations of a blowout, contributing to the sell-off in the 5.5+ point contract.
Market Convergence: The sharp drop in the "Peltola, 5.5+ pts" contract represents a market correction. The significant volume flowing into the 3.5- to 4.5-point contracts suggests traders are moving capital from a previously overpriced long-shot outcome to what is now seen as the most probable range, aligning market odds with the latest election results.
Market Context
This series of contracts on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi exchange allows traders to speculate on the final certified margin of victory in the 2026 Alaska Senate race. Because the contracts are nested (e.g., a 6-point win also satisfies the 5-point contract), the prices reflect the cumulative probability of the margin exceeding each threshold.
The near-100% probability assigned to contracts for a narrow Peltola win (e.g., "1+ pts") indicates the market considers her victory a near-certainty. The active trading is now concentrated on determining the precise margin, with the probability distribution curve steepening around the 3.5 to 4.5-point range.
What to Watch
The key remaining event for this market is the official ranked-choice tabulation. The Alaska Division of Elections is scheduled to conduct the RCV count on November 18, after the deadline for overseas absentee ballots. The results will remain unofficial until the state's final certification on November 25, which will serve as the settlement source for these contracts.
