Episode summary
Episode 32: Special Feature: 2026 Private Market Outlook
Alternative Allocations
· · Hosts: Tony Davidow, Christine Gaze · Guests: Anant Kumar, Taylor Robinson, Jeb Belford
Summary
The discussion argues that 2026 could be a favorable year for private markets because broad macro conditions are improving for risk assets even as dispersion remains high. The host framed the outlook around three themes: broadening opportunities across asset classes and geographies, a steeper yield curve, and a weaker dollar. The guests linked that backdrop to specific pockets of opportunity in commercial real estate, private equity secondaries, and private credit.
In commercial real estate, one guest said the sector is at the start of a new cycle, supported by lower values, solid operating fundamentals, and financing availability. The strongest themes were industrial, housing, and health care, while office was described as structurally challenged and likely to remain an underweight or even an avoid area. Another guest said commercial real estate debt looks attractive because valuations have reset, banks are pulling back, and lenders can now demand better terms, with multifamily housing highlighted as the highest-conviction area.
On private equity secondaries, the guests said liquidity demand remains strong and growing, with both LP-led and GP-led transactions staying important. On private credit, the main message was that direct lending is back in balance, but asset-based finance offers broader diversification and a wide set of collateral-backed opportunities.
Key takeaways
- The guests see commercial real estate as early-cycle, with industrial, housing, and health care favored over office.
- Private equity secondaries remain attractive because liquidity demand from LPs and GPs is still outpacing available capital.
- Private credit looks more balanced now that M&A activity has improved and borrower-lender supply and demand are closer to equilibrium.
- Asset-based finance was described as a broad, diversified corner of private credit with low correlation to traditional assets.
- Commercial real estate debt was singled out for better entry terms, especially in multifamily housing, where valuations have already reset 25% to 30%.
Notable quotes
“As we look to 2026, we think there are three macro themes. Broadening, steepening, and weakening”
“Our big picture outlook for the commercial real estate sector at the moment is that we're at the beginning of a new cycle”
“There's a tremendous need for liquidity for the original investors and the hold periods of private companies are extending”
“So the market's coming into balance between lenders and borrowers. That's why we're constructive on the space”
“Office does not have one of those big fundamental themes driving it”
How the episode opens
This is Alternative Allocations by Franklin Templeton, a monthly podcast where we share practical, relatable advice and discuss new investment ideas with leaders in the field. Please subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast to make sure you don't miss an episode. Here is your host, Tony Davidau.
Welcome to this special episode of the alternative allocations podcast series. In this episode, we will discuss the 2026 private market outlook. To explore the challenges and opportunities, I'm joined today by Jeb Belfford, CIO of Claram Partners, Taylor Robinson, partner and portfolio manager of Lexington Partners, and Ana Kumar, director of research at Benefit Street Partners.
Welcome, gentlemen.
Thank you very much. Great to be here. As we look to 2026, we think there are three macro themes.
Broadening, steepening, and weakening. We'll touch on those in a little bit of detail here in a more detail in our private market outlook. But broadening is broadening the opportunities from an asset class perspective and across the globe.
Steepening reflects our views that the yield curve is likely going to steepen over time. And weaken means we are concerned about the dollar continuing its path of weakening over time. to discuss the implications of our private market outlook.
We'll get into the discussion here and I'll start by asking each of you to talk about where you see the best opportunities and why. And Jeb, I'll start with you if you don't mind. Thanks Tony.
Our big picture outlook for the commercial real estate sector at the moment is that we're at the beginning of a new cycle. In our view, there's a lot of evidence that supports that values have come down. Fundamentals in the real estate sector, by which I mean the operating fundamentals are generally strong.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 2026 private market outlook
- commercial real estate cycles
- private equity secondaries liquidity
- private credit
- macro themes
Companies and tickers mentioned
- LAZ
- DB
- JPM
- BEN
- Benefit Street Partners
- Lazard Frères
- Deutsche Bank
- Lexington Partners
- JPMorgan
- Franklin Templeton
- Clarion Partners
Watch the episode
Watch “Episode 32: Special Feature: 2026 Private Market Outlook” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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