Episode summary
Happy New Year to ETF Investors! What Should We Expect In 2026?
Bangers Only Podcast
· · Guests: Mike Akins
Summary
ETF flows and product launches were the dominant story of 2025, and Mike Akins argued that the ETF wrapper has clearly won structural share. He pointed to record topline flows, AUM, active and passive assets, fixed income, synthetic income, buffers, and a record 1,100 launches, saying firms that are not in ETFs now will see muted growth. He also said the market may be moving toward a convergence between ETF and mutual fund assets by around 2030, helped by RMD-driven transfers and, eventually, broader access in 401(k)s.
Akins said the biggest allocation shift last year was stronger demand for international equities, with about $170 billion flowing into ex-U.S. products, even as U.S. large-cap growth remained dominant and small caps saw net outflows. He also highlighted gold’s strength and said crypto demand remained real, though investors increasingly want that exposure in ETF form.
Looking ahead, he expects money market assets to rotate first into conventional bonds and then selectively into equities, buffers, and synthetic-income ETFs if rates keep falling. He argued that the synthetic-income category has become much more complex and tax-sensitive, so advisers need to do more homework on structure, yield target, and tax treatment. He also flagged 351 exchanges, international small caps, reshoring, and any hiccup in the AI trade as themes to watch in 2026.
Key takeaways
- Mike Akins said ETF assets are on a path to converge with mutual funds, possibly by 2030, as RMDs and 401(k) adoption push assets into the wrapper.
- Akins said 2025 brought record ETF flows, AUM, launches, and synthetic-income assets, showing the ETF market is still expanding rapidly.
- He said about $170 billion flowed into ex-U.S. size-and-style ETFs last year, making international allocation the clearest non-U.S. growth theme.
- Akins expects money-market cash to move first into conventional bonds, then into buffers and synthetic-income ETFs if rates keep falling.
- He said synthetic-income ETFs now require more homework because structures, payout targets, and tax treatment can vary widely.
- Akins flagged 351 exchanges, international small caps, reshoring, and AI concentration as major 2026 watchpoints.
Notable quotes
“the ETF rapper is alive and well and I think that's first and foremost”
“I think at this point, yeah, the die is cast on that one”
“I think that day is coming sooner rather than later”
“people were taking money off the top on the miners”
“there was a handful of options. I want to get income on a putright or a covered call”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Bangers Only podcast, where Tom Leiden and his band of experts make money talk exciting. Here's your host, Tom Leiden. Welcome to the Bangers Only podcast.
Life is short. We've got to keep things simple. Use your time to focus on what's most important.
That's what Bangers Only is all about. I'm Tom Leiden and joining me for our first podcast of the year is Mike Akens who's the founding partner of ETF Action. Mike, welcome.
Great having you back.
Yeah, thanks for having me back, Tom. And happy new year. — Happy New Year to you. And boy, happy new year to ETF investors. What a year for ETFs. I mean, another record year. We want to talk about the future and what ETF investors might want to think about as we look at 2026, but what were some of the highlights that jumped out at you for 2025?
Well, I think first and foremost is just records, right? So, everywhere you look, whether it's topline flows, AUM, active versus passive, um fixed income, uh synthetic income, buffers, everything posted records. So the ETF rapper is alive and well and I think that's first and foremost.
Um but then when you go down there's a couple of key themes I think that helped with that. Um one is we saw a record number of issuers. We started last year 370 so issuers in the market.
Brands I guess is a better way to say it because some issuers are under or some brands are under one issuer. But you know we had over a hundred new brands come to market last year and a lot of them have been very very successful. So part of kind of that growth is you're just getting more and more um ETFs in the market obviously more brands more launches record year for launches, 1100 uh launches.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- etf flows
- etf aum vs mutual funds
- international and gold etfs
- money market cash rotation
- synthetic income etfs
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ETF Action
Watch the episode
Watch “Happy New Year to ETF Investors! What Should We Expect In 2026?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Bangers Only Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to Tom Lydon. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
