Could the Next Crypto Bull Market Arrive Sooner Than Expected?

Michael Howell argues that Bitcoin may be flashing an early warning on global liquidity, but he is not ready to make that his base case. His longer-run view is still that the liquidity cycle does not bottom until the second half of 2027, yet he says Bitcoin holding above $70,000, combined with evidence that bank reserves are being actively managed higher, would force a rethink.

His main macro claim is that rising U.S. Treasury yields are being driven more by stronger nominal GDP growth and higher policy-rate expectations than by a surge in term premium or a collapse in bond demand. He says the U.S. is not seeing the kind of fiscal stress reflected in bond markets that some commentators describe; instead, the rise in yields mostly tracks a stronger economy and a flatter yield curve.

Howell also says the Fed and Treasury are now working in tandem to control liquidity and volatility, not simply to move rates. He describes this as “Treasury QE”: more bill issuance, buybacks of older debt, and a deliberate effort to keep reserves ample and collateral markets stable. In his framework, that is liquidity-positive in the medium term, even if it tightens financial conditions for risk assets first.

Across his four-cycle map, Howell says the market may be moving out of speculation and toward turbulence. That would favor bond duration, while leaving commodities and equities more vulnerable, though he notes AI earnings strength has kept large-cap tech unusually resilient.