Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | The Case for Gold $10,000 Is Strong
Summary
Gold’s recent pullback did not change the longer-term bullish case, which Dylan Jovine tied to currency debasement, deficits, and central bank demand. He cited Ed Yardeni’s $10,000 gold call and a UBS note that reaffirmed gold as a defensive hedge, arguing that the market is being distorted by short-term speculation while the core macro setup remains intact.
Jovine said the key driver is not gold itself but the erosion of fiat purchasing power. In his view, if the US continues printing money and running persistent red ink, gold remains a portfolio protection asset, especially versus long-duration Treasuries that he thinks become less attractive in a debasement regime. He also argued that foreign countries and central banks have been important buyers because they want to diversify away from dollar reserves.
He distinguished between the fundamental price range and the speculative noise around it, saying traders should ignore the volatility and focus on the signal. Jovine added that he is not a natural gold bug, but history and his 2022 decision to go long gold convinced him the metal still deserves a place in a balanced portfolio.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says the long-term case for gold is still strong because he expects continued US currency debasement and fiscal deficits.
- Jovine cites Ed Yardeni’s $10,000 gold view and UBS’s bullish note as support for staying constructive on gold.
- Jovine says foreign countries and central banks have been major gold buyers because they want to hedge dollar exposure.
- Jovine believes short-term speculation is driving volatility, but the fundamental range for gold is set by inflation and debasement.
- Jovine says he is not a gold bug, but he went long gold in 2022 and says it helped the model portfolio.
Notable quotes
“the fundamental case for gold is still sadly very strong”
“if you think that we are going to keep printing money fundamentally, if you think that debasement of currency makes 30-year bonds and 20-year US bonds unattractive”
“You just hold it. You ignore it. If it goes up, it goes down. And you just put it away”
“the fundamental long-term case is bullish, but also there's the top of the beer, that speculative case that's just jumping all around”
“history started to tell me that is why I went long gold in 2022 and of course it it did great for us in our model portfolio”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Jovian on behind the markets. Happy Friday.
Today is Friday, March 27th, TGIF. And if you haven't noticed, we launched a new website. I urge you to log in, check it out, help us make it better.
But I am very, very optimistic about it. I actually think this is quite a leap for us. Very, very good stuff.
Very, very happy with it. So, anyway, today I'd like to talk about gold. You know, gold 10,000.
That is what famous analyst Ed Yardini is still sticking with. Also UBS out with a note and a bunch of analysts out with notes really reaffirming their bullish stance on gold. But I think UBS did a pretty good job of it and I figured I'd discuss their note and then add my own little color commentary to that.
The investment bank's global wealth management office doubled down on its bullish stance on gold this week. And basically analyst Wayne Gordon and his team said that look despite the recent declines they think investors should stick with gold as a defensive hedge. And look remember something since this war broke out.
One of the big buyers of gold basically have been foreign countries. They're using their excess their reserves to buy gold because most of it's held in dollars. So they've been hedging against dollars.
Okay. Now, when this war breaks out, all of a sudden, these countries hold on to their reserves. They hold on to their money.
It's kind of a flight to, you know, stable stuff. They're not using excess reserves to actually buy gold. Think about oil producing countries.
Let's say that you are Saudi Arabia and you're selling a billion dollars worth of oil a day. You take that money and part of it goes into US dollar instruments, part of it goes into Saudi Arabia instruments and part of it goes to buy gold to hedge.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- gold outlook
- gold volatility
- currency debasement
- central bank demand
- fiscal trends
Companies and tickers mentioned
- UBS
- UBS
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | The Case for Gold $10,000 Is Strong” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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