Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | Where To Get Shares of SpaceX IPO
Summary
Dylan Jovine breaks down the rumored SpaceX IPO as an investor would, arguing that admiration for Elon Musk is not the same as a good entry price. He says SpaceX has evolved from a launch-services business into something broader, with Starlink now its biggest revenue driver and xAI added to the mix, but he repeatedly returns to valuation: a $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion IPO would need extraordinary economics to justify itself.
He cites SpaceX’s 2025 revenue of $16 billion, about $8 billion in EBITDA, and $1 billion to $2 billion in free cash flow as evidence of a strong business. But he says xAI complicates the picture because it allegedly generated only about $210 million in revenue in the first nine months of last year while losing $9.5 billion. In his view, that loss could wipe out SpaceX’s profitability when the companies are combined.
Jovine also emphasizes SpaceX’s dominance in launch services, noting that 35 of 59 orbital launches in 2026 used Falcon 9. Even so, he argues the entire launch market is only about $10 billion to $20 billion, far too small on its own to support a trillion-dollar valuation. He closes by saying the market may still be eager for shares, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs handling institutions and Bank of America and Citi targeting retail buyers.
Key takeaways
- Dylan Jovine says SpaceX may be a great company, but at a $1.25 trillion valuation the burden is on the numbers, not the hype.
- He says SpaceX generated $16 billion of revenue in 2025, about $8 billion of EBITDA, and $1 billion to $2 billion of free cash flow.
- He argues xAI is the biggest risk in the combination, citing about $9.5 billion of losses in nine months versus roughly $210 million of revenue.
- Jovine notes SpaceX’s launch dominance, with 35 of 59 orbital launches in 2026 on Falcon 9, but says the launch market is only about $10 billion to $20 billion.
- He says retail demand is likely to be strong and mentions Bank of America and Citi as possible distribution channels for individual investors.
Notable quotes
“what is SpaceX these days? And I have a lot of notes here”
“We could like something, but it doesn't mean we have to buy something”
“the company by all accounts is going public this summer, 90 days or so, between a 1.25 and a 1.75 trillion IPO”
“SpaceX revenue was 16 billion in 2025. Their IBIDA earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation was 8 billion”
“Out of 59 total rocket launches into orbit so far in 2026, 35 have been on Space X's Falcon 9”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Joan with Behind the Markets. Happy Thursday.
Today's Thursday, March 26th. And today, I'd like to talk about SpaceX. I'm responding to questions that I've gotten from our members, including one yesterday from Cindy B, who wrote in and she's a good member of ours, a good friend of ours.
She got into a serious accident some months back and has been going through rehabs and treatments trying to get back on her feet. And I know she's feeling better because she asked me about the SpaceX IPO. So anyway, here are our four questions that I would ask myself about SpaceX's IPO.
And I figured I'd share these with you because the company by all accounts is going public this summer, 90 days or so, between a 1.25 and a 1.75 trillion IPO. It's a big big big big number. So first of all, what is SpaceX these days?
And I have a lot of notes here. For most of SpaceX's 24-year history, the company made money from launching things to space for governments and other space firms and other companies. And I read Elon, the biography, the Walter Isacson biography and Elon Musk.
And I thought, frankly, that of all the cool things this man has done in his life, SpaceX was the coolest because he actually told the US government, "Don't just lock in a big contract with us. Pay us for performance. Pay us if we actually deliver.
And that really changed and incentivized private space and really revolutionized that. So I'm a big fan of SpaceX, but we are investors. We could like something, but it doesn't mean we have to buy something.
It's like a Honda Accord might be a great car, but is it worth $200,000? So the question is not whether SpaceX is a good company or not.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex ipo
- private company valuation
- starlink revenue
- ai and space communications
- ipo risk analysis
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SpaceX
- Starlink
- xAI
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | Where To Get Shares of SpaceX IPO” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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