Episode summary
Dylan Jovine | The “Great Game”: America vs. China
Summary
Dylan Jovine argues that the key framework for investors is not individual stock picking but a global contest over commodities and strategic inputs. He highlights a Bank of America note from Michael Hartnett saying geopolitics is being driven by the need to monopolize chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil, and says that this is the lens through which recent policy moves should be read.
He describes the world as a single chessboard with two main players, the United States and China, while the Middle East, Venezuela, and Iran are smaller pieces moved to advantage one side or the other. In his view, U.S. pressure on oil supplies, sanctions, and control of resource routes raises China’s costs and can slow its growth without requiring direct military conflict over Taiwan.
He also says Trump-era moves around the Gulf of Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, and the extended continental shelf make more sense as resource strategy. Jovine claims these actions could give Americans access to resource-linked opportunities and help protect U.S. companies and retirement accounts from a world where China dominates trade and supply chains.
Key takeaways
- Jovine says the real investment frame is the race to control commodities, not just the latest moves in Nvidia, AMD, or other chip stocks.
- He argues the United States and China are the two central players, with other regions functioning as smaller pieces in that contest.
- He claims pressure on Iranian and Venezuelan oil reduces China’s access to cheap energy and raises its cost of growth.
- He suggests U.S. control of resource flows can be a cheaper way to deter a Taiwan conflict than an all-out shooting war.
- He says investors should look for opportunities created by American access to Gulf and other strategic resources.
Notable quotes
“Geopolitics is now driven by the need to monopolize commodities. Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, oil, wins the AI war”
“there's really one chessboard. The globe is one chessboard right now”
“there's really one chessboard with two main players. That's the US and China”
“I think it's really understated here that there's really one chessboard”
“I am not a war hawk, just for the record”
How the episode opens
Good morning. This is Dylan Jovine behind the markets. Happy Monday.
Today is Monday, the 27th. Yes, I am still wearing my Twilight Zone hoodie. I have to wash it and take it off.
I think today is the last day, but I can't get enough of it. It's making me smile every day every time I put it on. Anyway, today I'd like to talk about a note out from Bank of America.
It's out with a note from their analyst Michael Hartnett, who is clearly smart and well-educated, which is you don't always get those at big banks. Surprise, surprise. But, here's a line that really caught my attention and I thought it was worth sharing.
Quote, "Geopolitics now driven by need to monopolize commodities. Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, oil, wins the AI war. I'm going to read that again.
"Geopolitics is now driven by the need to monopolize commodities. Who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, oil, wins the AI war. I bring this up today because we've been talking so much about the micro, company A, company B, what Elon Musk is doing, what's happening with the chip stocks, they're soaring, and all that other stuff.
But, find it very helpful as an investor to pull the camera back and get a reset on the big picture of what's really happening here. And I think it's really understated here that there's really one chessboard. The globe is one chessboard right now.
What's happening in the Middle East it is a small chessboard. What happened in Venezuela, that's South America, is a small chessboard. But, there's really one chessboard with two main players.
That's the US and China. Every piece on the chessboard, every other piece, is being moved around to benefit one of these two countries.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- geopolitics commodities
- ai chips supply chain
- rare earths minerals
- sanctions energy policy
- china versus united states
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BAC
- NVDA
- AMD
- Bank of America
- Nvidia
- AMD
Watch the episode
Watch “Dylan Jovine | The “Great Game”: America vs. China” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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