Episode summary
CPI Data Supports Bonds as Rate-Hike Bets Wane | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 42 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Michael Ball, Bob Diamond, Elliott Lorenz, Constance Hunter, Randall Williams
Summary
July CPI came in tame enough to support bonds and ease some pressure on the Fed, with core prices up 0.2% on the month and the annual rate at 2.5%. The host and Constance Hunter argued that inflation is still sticky, but the trend is moderating enough for the Fed to keep rates on hold rather than resume hikes, especially after a weak jobs report and softer September hike odds.
Michael Ball said the market has already priced a strong earnings backdrop, so equities may need a new catalyst to extend higher. He pointed to the July FOMC, easier financial conditions, and the coming Jackson Hole meeting and Nvidia earnings as the next major tests, while warning that markets are already “bowled up again.”
Later, Bob Diamond and Elliott Lorenz discussed Atlas Merchant Capital’s minority investment in Edge Focus, pitching data, modeling, and access as tools to scale consumer credit lending without creating systemic risk. The episode also touched on the reported $12.5 billion Lakers transaction, which Randall Williams said shows how much sports valuations have exploded.
Key takeaways
- Constance Hunter said the CPI print was soft enough to justify the Fed leaving rates on hold, not hiking them.
- Michael Ball argued that strong earnings are already priced in, so markets now need a new catalyst to keep rallying.
- Bob Diamond said Edge Focus’s credit model relies on data, discipline, and AI-driven underwriting across near-prime and subprime borrowers.
- Elliott Lorenz said the firm is expanding beyond unsecured consumer credit into auto, point-of-sale, medical, and home-improvement lending.
- Randall Williams said the $12.5 billion Lakers deal shows sports franchise valuations continue to reprice sharply higher.
Notable quotes
“we are well aware of the physical restraints, whether it's electricity, whether it's even labor, electricians, whether it's the GPUs”
“I think what today's print provided, of course, that the August data continues along this trend”
“The important thing for us is being able to go into more asset classes and really invest alongside of our partners”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio.
Our Bloomberg Markets live team writing that the latest reason to worry about the stock market is quite the doozy. Earnings growth has actually been too strong. We've got with us Michael Ball, Bloomberg News macro Strategist.
He's got a great background. He was at the New York Fed during the crisis. That was 2006 to 2013 is when he was there.
So, I think it's fair to say he's seen seen some stuff. He was a consultant. He was a macro analyst advising institutional clients.
He was doing some trading and now we get him here at Bloomberg. Welcome. Good to have you.
Thanks for having me guys. Good to be on the show. — So I I I want to start with this idea that earnings growth has actually been too good. Like why why is that a bad sign?
Yeah. Again, it's what is the next catalyst for the leg higher, right? We've been pinned at the S&P.
We've seen a healthy rotation within that as July really saw a lot of the prior AI winners come off and then the earnings picture just improved throughout July. broadened and now we have that 20 to 30% change in how much we're seeing forward EPS growth. Now we can't get too much more given the macro backdrop meaning like where are we going to lean again on for leadership?
Is it going to go back to AI or is it going to be continuing breath of earnings improving and the actual economic growth story although very strong given the uncertainty we're constantly dealing with with tariffs with the war with the general state of the consumer there's not too much more that we can kind of squeeze out.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- cpi inflation
- treasuries and bonds
- rate-hike odds
- jobs report
- energy shock tail risks
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bloomberg
- Atlas Merchant Capital
- Edge Focus
- Economist Enterprise
Watch the episode
Watch “CPI Data Supports Bonds as Rate-Hike Bets Wane | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
-
Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Inside Jensen Huang’s Final Hours as Nvidia CEO | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Jensen Huang's Exit Kicks Off Nvidia Strategy Reset | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Special Episode: Bobby Jain on Why He Chose Millennium Again | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast: Jensen’s Nvidia Departure -
Take-Two Releasing Long-Awaited Grand Theft Auto VI Next Week | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
