Episode summary
Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances | Bloomberg Businessweek
Summary
The episode centered on how fragile global energy flows remain around the Strait of Hormuz, with the guest arguing that the US does not control the waterway and that Iran has established a new maritime order that is unlikely to revert quickly. The guest said alternative routes and pipelines can help, but not replace the strait, especially for countries like Iraq that still depend heavily on it to move crude to Asia.
A second segment shifted to the market consequences of the AI boom. The guest from J.P. Morgan Asset Management said AI exposure now runs through public equities, private credit, private equity, and infrastructure, creating a concentration risk that investors need to manage actively. She argued that electricity and power infrastructure may offer a cleaner way to play the theme than direct AI bets.
The show then turned to eToro, where the CEO described a strategy built around acquisitions, AI-powered trading tools, prediction markets, and crypto. He said the company wants to become a financial super app and expects agentic trading activity to grow quickly. The final segment warned that AI-heavy leveraged ETFs are amplifying volatility, especially in a small set of names, and that retail investors often misunderstand the products’ intended holding periods.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Iran has gained lasting leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and that a full return to prewar shipping routes is unlikely.
- The guest argued that pipelines and tanker workarounds can reduce pressure on the strait, but cannot fully replace it for key exporters like Iraq.
- The J.P. Morgan strategist said AI concentration now spans stocks, bonds, private markets and infrastructure, making active selection more important.
- The strategist said electricity and power infrastructure may be a better risk-adjusted way to gain exposure than direct AI plays.
- The eToro CEO said the firm is pushing AI trading, prediction markets and crypto into a broader financial super app.
- Bloomberg News said AI-linked leveraged ETFs now account for about 60% of their exposure and can intensify volatility in crowded names.
Notable quotes
“the US does not control the straight 100%”
“Iran wants to be the dominant voice right now with respect to how these trait of hormones will be managed in the future”
“everything is AI wherever you look whether it's the the public markets the stock markets increasingly the bond markets”
“we expect that electricity prices are going to continue to increase. Uh we expect more consumption of power by the data centers”
“The majority of them their actual exposure when you add all those amped up deliver uh derivatives it's 500 billion”
How the episode opens
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That's golden.com/guide. Well, Pakistan's defense minister said the US and Iran are quote close to some sort of arrangement over the straight of Hormuz even after both sides appeared to harden their positions in the long deadlocked negotiations. Meanwhile, Iran says the strait will remain shut until Iran's conditions are met.
And just reminder, the president said yesterday in the Oval Office that the straight is open now. Quote, "The US is the only one that has control of Hormuz and quote, we control the strait 100%. Noam Ray Don is senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
She joins us from Washington DC. Noam, I just want I just want you to fact check this comment from the president yesterday. Does the US control the straight 100%.
Hello there. I'm very happy to join both of you. Um first of all, let me give you a quick overview of what's going on in the straight of — Please. — Throughout this war, Iran has established a new navigational order. What I mean by that is the following. Uh it is unlikely that we're going to go back to the maritime arrangement that existed in the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us iran negotiations
- strait of hormuz
- pakistan diplomacy
- market strategy
- fintech trading
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- eToro
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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