Episode summary
Iran Leader Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Shut | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 37 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Jennifer Welch, Rockford Weitz, Jason Greenblath, Michael Lohan
Summary
Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut and expand the conflict if US and Israeli strikes continue dominated the first part of the show, alongside Washington’s response. The host said the Trump administration is considering temporary Jones Act waivers to help blunt higher fuel costs, while crude surged toward $97 a barrel and WTI and Brent approached $100. Jennifer Welch argued that the timeline for any exit ramp is highly uncertain, because it depends on what the US and Israel count as success and whether Iran would accept security assurances after the war.
Welch said the conflict is likely to make Tehran more hardline, less willing to restart negotiations, and more determined to pursue a nuclear deterrent and proxy capabilities. She said the longer the fighting lasts, the larger the hit to the US economy and the global economy, mainly through energy prices and market nervousness about whether disruptions are temporary.
Later, Rockford Weitz said waiving the Jones Act would only help a little, because the Strait of Hormuz remains the real choke point. He said mines in the waterway are a known threat and estimated combat operations would likely be over by the end of April, though securing the strait could take longer. The final segment shifted to credit markets, where Jason Greenblath said investors are still demanding yield, even as war and AI worries affect issuance, and Michael Lohan said Ireland still saw strong foreign direct investment but faces a more uncertain global backdrop.
Key takeaways
- Jennifer Welch said the war has no clear exit ramp because success depends on what the US, Israel, and Iran will accept.
- Welch warned that the longer the conflict lasts, the bigger the hit to both the US and global economies.
- Rockford Weitz said Jones Act waivers would help fuel logistics only a little, because Hormuz is still the critical chokepoint.
- Weitz said mines are a known and practical threat in the strait, and he expected combat operations to end by the end of April.
- Jason Greenblath said credit investors are still chasing yield, but he expects only selective buying rather than a broad rush into risk.
Notable quotes
“the lever of closing the straight of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used”
“The longer this conflict goes on, the bigger the hit will be to not only the US economy, but the global economy”
“Waving the Jones Act will help a little bit”
“the short answer is nothing good”
“we're probably talking weeks, unlikely months”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.
Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio. In the meantime, the Trump administration plans to issue temporary waiverss for a century old maritime law requiring Americanbuilt ships being used to transport goods between US ports to stop surging oil prices.
We've had that come out. We've also heard that the US Navy could start escorting tankers through the straight of Hormuz by the end of this month. That came from energy secretary Chris Wright.
Tim, that was on CNBC. Meanwhile, crude hits $97 a barrel. WTI Brandt hitting $100 a barrel amid weakening shipment disruptions with Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Moesto Ham signaling no intention of ending the Straight of Hormuz closure specifically saying quote the lever of closing the straight of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used.
Studies have been conducted on opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and would be highly vulnerable and their activation will take place if the state war persists.
Now, Iran seems to be doubling down when it comes specifically to holding on uh its hold really on global energy markets and the global economic leverage that it has as a result of that. Meanwhile, we've had President Trump out today on social uh saying a few things, but he also said the United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.
But a far greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and indeed the world.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- strait of hormuz
- oil and gas supply
- global energy prices
- iran us israel tensions
- nuclear weapons
Companies and tickers mentioned
- American Century Investments
- IDA Ireland
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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