Episode summary
Prediction Market Theorists Question Kalshi, Polymarket Boom | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 8 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Chris Beam
Summary
Prediction markets are growing quickly even as some of their earliest believers worry the boom is pushing the category away from its original purpose. Chris Beam says trading volume on Kalshi has surged from hundreds of millions of dollars per month in early 2025 to more than $18 billion in May, while Polymarket has also expanded rapidly despite lawsuits from state regulators over alleged illegal gambling and the CFTC’s defense of the platforms.
Beam’s reporting focuses on a group of prediction market purists who gathered annually in Berkeley and believe the markets can improve public decision-making by turning dispersed information into better forecasts. They see uses in interest-rate bets, weather, elections, and geopolitical outcomes, and some studies suggest these markets can be as accurate as or better than other forecasters. But they are unhappy that Kalshi and Polymarket are dominated by sports betting, which they think weakens the idea that prediction markets are a public good.
Beam also places prediction markets inside the broader rationalist world, with overlap among effective altruists and figures such as Sam Altman, Sam Bankman-Fried, Dario Amodei, and Elon Musk. He draws a line between the ideological purists and the newer wave of users who simply want to make money by betting on the future.
Key takeaways
- Chris Beam says Kalshi’s monthly trading volume jumped from hundreds of millions of dollars in early 2025 to more than $18 billion in May.
- Beam reports that prediction-market purists are disappointed that sports betting dominates Kalshi and Polymarket, even as politics and crypto grow.
- Beam says studies suggest prediction markets can be as accurate as, and sometimes better than, other forecasters on events like Fed decisions and elections.
- Beam places prediction markets in the rationalist orbit, alongside effective altruism and names including Sam Altman, Sam Bankman-Fried, Dario Amodei and Elon Musk.
- Beam says most defenders would not treat mention markets as having real social utility, because they are close to gambling.
Notable quotes
“It's never been a better time for someone trying to bet on the world”
“the platforms, they say, "Yeah, bet on the next Fed decision”
“basically people who've been following the space for decades back to the 1980s way before anyone knew”
“I think most even the the staunchest defenders of prediction markets probably wouldn't say that mention markets have a real social utility”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. — You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio. Robin Hood, you know, is a has a prediction market. So, it's sort of a good little, you know, indicator.
Uh, they've had a banner year, though. I keep seeing that. Do you see that Timothy Shalomé ad when you're watching the World Cup if he's at the dentist? Have you seen Chris? Have you seen this thing? I somehow missed it. Okay. The only one.
You're the only one. And you write about predictions, — But you don't really know. Like it's just so odd. — Yeah. He's he's doing this whole marketing campaign with them. Uh tradition uh trading volume on on Kalshi has rocketed from hundreds of millions of dollars per month in early 2025 to more than $18 billion in May.
It's real. — Poly market has also seen rapid growth. Both platforms are mired in lawsuits with state regulators who accuse them of offering illegal gambling. Yet, the CFTC has come to their defense, arguing that trading doesn't amount to gambling, a position the companies hold, too.
All right, so in other words, as Bloomberg Business Week senior writer Chris Beam writes, "It's never been a better time for someone trying to bet on the world. Chris joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Um, Chris, good to have you here.
Maybe, uh, as you write, it's never been a better time for someone to bet on the world. Like, tell us what's going on here. Um well, you know, for all the controversy that Cali and Poly Market are generating, they just keep growing.
Um you know, we're seeing uh more people trading and um we're seeing uh growth inside the US and especially um in areas that are outside sports.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- prediction markets
- kalshi
- polymarket
- mainstream adoption
- collective knowledge
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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