Episode summary
BI Weekend: Novo Pill, Retail Earnings, Restaurant Sales | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Sam Fazeli, Michael Halen, Mary Ross Gilbert, Woo Jin Ho, Matthew Schettenhelm, Lindsay Dutch, Jody Lurie
Summary
Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic pill failed in Alzheimer’s studies, and a guest argued the result does not end the science around semaglutide and dementia, only the current pill approach. He said the market is huge because Alzheimer’s is best treated earlier, before full-blown degeneration, but that further testing will be hard to fund after this setback. The host and guest also discussed existing drugs from Eli Lilly, Biogen and Roche, with the guest saying the real opportunity is slowing progression in mild cognitive impairment rather than reversing late-stage disease.
The show then turned to restaurants, where a guest said November same-store sales should be pressured by the government shutdown and tough comparisons, but December and early 2026 could improve. He said quick-service chains have recovered some value positioning, while beef inflation remains a major margin headwind for burger and steak concepts. Franchised models were described as easier to forecast and less risky, while owned-and-operated chains keep more control over operations.
Retail and technology coverage focused on Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy and Cisco. The guests said Kohl’s is stabilizing by reviving private brands, Abercrombie’s Hollister is offsetting weakness in the namesake banner, Dick’s is managing a difficult Foot Locker integration, Best Buy is seeing solid demand in computing and phones, and Cisco is benefiting from an AI tailwind plus a large product upgrade cycle. A media analyst also said Trump’s comments on broadcast ownership caps create policy risk, while a travel survey suggested consumers still want vacations in 2026 but will be more cost conscious.
Key takeaways
- A guest said Novo Nordisk’s Alzheimer’s failure does not kill semaglutide research, but it raises the bar for anyone willing to fund the next trial.
- The restaurant analyst expects November sales to be weak because of the government shutdown, with a better setup for December and the first half of 2026.
- The retail analysts said Kohl’s is stabilizing through private brands and better sizing, while Abercrombie’s Hollister is carrying growth as the core brand cycles hard compares.
- The technology analyst said Cisco could exceed its 5% to 7% 2026 sales target because AI revenue may triple to about $3 billion and a product upgrade cycle is starting.
- The credit analyst said consumers still plan to travel in 2026, but more will cut back or choose cheaper options if costs rise above budget.
Notable quotes
“the trial didn't work out. And the question here is was the theory wrong or is the drug not good enough”
“you need drugs that actually treat the disease. Remember by the time you have Alzheimer's I i.e. a full-blown uh dementia of the Alzheimer's it's a bit late”
“November is going to be a tough month. There's no doubt about it. Um the the government shutdown has definitely impacted sales and traffic”
“Kohl's has always been known for. So one is their private brands”
“AI is going to be about $3 billion of sales. uh tripling or $3 billion of sales in fiscal 2026, tripling that of 2025”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlett Fu and Paul Sweeney. How do you think the Fed is looking at tariffs, the uncertainty of tariffs?
Let's take a look at the sectors and how they perform. A lot of investors getting whipsawed every day by news events, breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe. Could we see a market disruption, a market event?
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On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. Each and every week, we provide in-depth research and data on some of the 2,000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide. Today, we'll look at why the retailer Kohl's rates his fullear outlook for the second straight quarter.
Plus, a look at why travelers may be eyeing similar spending for vacations in 2026. But first, we move next to some news in the biotech space. This week, we heard that a pill version of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisks Ompic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer's in a pair of studies.
Novo said this was based on a cognitive assessment for patients who took the medicine. The drug maker will now discontinue a planned one-year extension of the studies. As a result, Novos stock plummeted to its lowest in more than four years.
We were joined by Sam Fiselli, Bloomberg Intelligence director of research for global industries and senior pharmaceuticals analyst. We first asked Sam to break down Novo's recent studies is not about obesity. It's about a drug semaglutide in a pill form that they've tested in Alzheimer's disease.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ozempic
- alzheimer's trial
- retail earnings
- restaurant sales
- consumer spending 2026
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVO
- KSS
- ANF
- CSCO
- DKS
- BBY
- Novo Nordisk
- Alzheimer's
- Kohl's
- Abercrombie & Fitch
- Cisco
- Trump
- Dick's Sporting Goods
- Best Buy
- Bloomberg L.P.
Watch the episode
Watch “BI Weekend: Novo Pill, Retail Earnings, Restaurant Sales | Bloomberg Intelligence” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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