Episode summary
Black Friday Special | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Vonnie Quinn · Guests: Jeff Chang, Julie Bornstein, Anddria Clack-Rogers Varnado, Ryan Peterson
Summary
Jeff Chang argued that AI remains the dominant force behind the market into 2026, even as it also creates the biggest source of volatility. He said the trade is increasingly about selectivity: Nvidia still sits at the center of AI hardware, but competition from Microsoft, Alphabet, and others could raise volatility as the market weighs valuations, earnings, and macro cooling inflation.
Chang rejected the idea that AI is a bubble in the crypto sense, calling it a structural shift more like fiber optics or the early internet. He said the real long-term winners may be the private-market startups that become the next Facebooks, Netflixes, and Airbnbs of AI, while public investors should stay closest to the cloud, compute, data-center, networking, and cooling stack.
Julie Bornstein said AI shopping is moving from novelty to utility, with Daydream positioning itself as a fashion-focused personal stylist that understands natural-language prompts and screenshots. Andrea Clack-Rogers Varnado said retailers are optimistic but cautious, with consumers trading down selectively, buying more functional value, and responding to targeted promotions rather than broad discounts. Ryan Peterson said tariffs are still distorting margins, inventories, and supply chains, and expects more stockouts on hits and deal-heavy cleanup in Q1.
Key takeaways
- Jeff Chang said AI is still the biggest market driver for 2026, but also the main source of volatility as valuations stretch and competition rises.
- Chang called Nvidia the bellwether for AI hardware, while saying Microsoft and Alphabet are adding competitive pressure in cloud and chips.
- Julie Bornstein said AI shopping is early but real, with Daydream aiming to make fashion search more personal through prompts and screenshots.
- Andrea Clack-Rogers Varnado said consumers are spending selectively on longevity, utility, fragrances, wellness, and bundled purchases rather than broad discretionary splurges.
- Ryan Peterson said tariffs are still squeezing retail margins, with about 37% of duties passed through, 9% forced on suppliers, and the rest hitting earnings.
- Peterson said retailers frontloaded inventory ahead of tariff changes, which should create stockouts on hit items and better deals after the holidays.
Notable quotes
“I still think the biggest driver of growth is going to be AI. Uh, it's also, what's interesting enough, it's also going to be the uh greatest source of volatility”
“the real winners uh the the companies that really won kind of the internet boom the Facebooks of the world the Netflixes of the world the Airbnbs of the world they weren't around”
“the customer isn't stepping back. They're really rep prioritizing and they're doing a purposeful reallocation”
“Our next guest says tariffs are now one of the biggest variables in retail margins”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. On this Friday after Thanksgiving, Jeff Chang joins us.
He's the president of Vest Financial. You know, it's great, Jeff, to have you here. I'm looking at the S&P 500 year to date up 15%.
I've got the NASDAQ up 20%. Boy, that is solid performance. I don't care where you are, who you are.
What do you do for 2026, do you think? Yeah, great to be here. I, you know, I still think the biggest driver of growth is going to be AI.
Uh, it's also, what's interesting enough, it's also going to be the uh greatest source of volatility. I mean you can even see today uh with the CME and data centers like this is really going to be what's going to be driving uh the market overall into the next year. I think also you know on a on a larger basis you're kind of um uh weighing between kind of the macro factors cooling inflation AI but also you know earnings catching up to val valuations what we've seen today you know with multiples uh being on the higher end of the spectrum.
Yeah. So this AI trade, I mean, it's definitely changing. There's rotation involved, right?
I mean, do you still stick with the Nvidas or do you start looking at some of the other companies like the Alphabets now that are very involved with their TPUs? Yeah, I I think there's definitely growing competition. Um, but I think when you look at Nvidia, it's still the bell weather for AI hardware.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- black friday retail
- consumer spending
- market action
- supply chain logistics
- retail business
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GM
- General Motors
- Kohler
- Flexport
- Vest Financial
- Daydream
Watch the episode
Watch “Black Friday Special | Bloomberg Intelligence” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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