Episode summary
Instant Reaction: US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate | Bloomberg...
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Ira Jersey, Michael McKee, Stephanie Roth
Summary
The discussion centered on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision showing US payrolls were overstated by a record 911,000 jobs in the year through March 2025. The panel framed the number as a clear sign that labor-market growth was weaker than previously believed, with Ira Jersey saying the revision “solidifies” the case for a September Fed rate cut and possibly a series of cuts after that. Michael McKee emphasized that the figure is backward-looking, but still important because it updates the payroll base and shows the economy was softer than the monthly surveys suggested.
The speakers also argued that the market should not overread the revision as a trigger for an immediate 50-basis-point move. Ira Jersey said inflation remains the main constraint, especially with tariffs still filtering through, so the Fed is more likely to cut 25 basis points and then guide markets on the path ahead. Stephanie Roth agreed the revision was large but noted that preliminary revisions have sometimes been bigger than the final outcome, and she said the labor data do not fully determine the near-term rate path.
The conversation also touched on the political response, with McKee and Roth saying the president is likely to blame the Biden administration or attack the BLS rather than treat the number as a forward indicator.
Key takeaways
- Ira Jersey said the 911,000 downward revision strengthens the case for a September Fed cut and could support further cuts later in the year.
- Michael McKee said the benchmark revision is backward-looking and mainly updates the payroll base with more accurate unemployment-insurance data.
- Stephanie Roth said markets should remember preliminary revisions have often been larger than the final revision.
- Ira Jersey said inflation and tariff pass-through still argue against a 50-basis-point cut as the default scenario.
- Stephanie Roth said broad inflation pressures may rise over the next couple months even if energy prices are less important for core inflation.
Notable quotes
“it just solidifies even more that they're going to cut next week”
“the Federal Reserve probably just does their 25 then they guide”
“I don't think that the Fed's going to go 50 and the market's not fully priced for that”
“this is really backward-looking data. It's it's a way to update the data with actual data rather than a survey”
“the preliminary is larger shows a larger revision in recent years than the actual”
How the episode opens
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. — Good morning everyone. Scarlet Fu and Tom Keen. As scarlet fruit predicted it didn't come in but there is the first print of this preliminary number and it is toward what we heard from Dr. Angland or Scarlet. I'm going to suggest negative911 is a wow statistic. We begin strong in this special edition of Bloomberg surveillance with Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us payrolls revision
- fed rate cuts
- interest rates
- labor market slowdown
- job growth outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Wolfe Research
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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