Episode summary
Lilly Falls as Weight-Loss Pill Data Overshadows Sales Beat | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo · Guests: Damian Garde, Geetha Ranganathan, Mandeep Singh
Summary
Eli Lilly’s quarter looked strong on paper, with sales and profit guidance raised, but the stock fell about 14% after data on its experimental weight-loss pill disappointed investors. The pill met its trial goals and helped people lose weight, but the roughly 11% reduction fell short of the 14% to 15% Wall Street had wanted, and gastrointestinal side effects appeared comparable to injectable GLP-1 drugs. Damian Garde argued that the market is pricing in a much bigger opportunity than this single study suggests, while the host noted the commercial appeal of a more convenient oral option.
The discussion broadened to the obesity-drug landscape, with the host and Garde saying the market could eventually support both higher-efficacy injectables and cheaper pills. They also pointed to Novo Nordisk’s oral option and other smaller biotechs, plus possible M&A from companies like Pfizer. Garde said Lilly’s cardio-metabolic business already accounts for about 65% of revenue, which explains why the market reacted so sharply.
Geetha Ranganathan said Warner Bros. Discovery had a strong studio and streaming quarter, but TV networks remain a drag, making a mid-2026 split central to the company’s value case. Peloton beat profitability expectations but still faces weak demand and a 6% workforce reduction. Mandeep Singh said Trump’s attack on Intel’s CEO could reopen breakup debates around the company’s foundry and chip-design businesses.
Key takeaways
- Lilly’s experimental obesity pill produced about 11% weight loss, below Wall Street’s 14% to 15% target, and the stock fell about 14%.
- Damian Garde said the pill still appears headed toward FDA approval, but the market was disappointed that side effects were not clearly better than injections.
- The host and Garde said Lilly’s cardio-metabolic health business is 65% of revenue, making obesity-drug expectations a major driver of valuation.
- Geetha Ranganathan said Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio businesses are strong, but TV networks still account for about 80% of EBITDA and remain a major drag.
- Peloton posted adjusted EBITDA far above guidance and consensus, but its subscriber growth story remains unclear and it is cutting 6% of its workforce.
- Mandeep Singh said Trump’s pressure on Intel’s CEO could revive speculation about separating the foundry business from chip design.
Notable quotes
“it met its goals and it helped people lose weight, which was the whole point of it”
“that weight loss was about 11% of body weight and Wall Street was hoping to see something more akin to 14 to 15%”
“the reaction as you mentioned was dramatically negative uh for Elle”
“the streaming business is doing really well, the studio business is doing extremely well. uh but TV networks which is really 80% of their IBIDA is still struggling”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern — On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Eli Lily. Um, it had a sales beat, but shares are taking a hit.
Yeah, Lily shares are down about 14%. There is something overshadowing that. For that, we're going to bring in Damen Garde, Bloomberg News health reporter.
Uh Damian, thanks for joining us here in the studio. U so it looks like this experiment, this drug uh experimental weight loss pill, and that's the thing here, it didn't do as well in this study as as Wall Street had expected.
Exactly. So it met its goals and it helped people lose weight, which was the whole point of it. was uh enrolling people uh with obesity, but that weight loss was about 11% of body weight and Wall Street was hoping to see something more akin to 14 to 15% which would match what's seen with the injectable GLP-1 weight loss medicines like WGO from rival Novo Nordisk.
So despite the trial being a success and despite this pill seemingly on the path to winning FDA approval and hitting the market as early as next year, the reaction as you mentioned was dramatically negative uh for Elle because these you know singledigit percentage differences are perceived to be massively important to the ultimate uh financial future of this medicine. Here's the thing for me, knowing someone that does this GLP one thing, whatever it is. Um, you got to reduce the side effects, the nausea, and this one didn't.
And that was the I know people that use it and and use the injection are saying, boy, when the oral one comes out, I'm told that the side effects will be dramatically less, which is a huge selling point.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- weight-loss pill data
- eli lilly earnings guidance
- media and entertainment earnings
- peloton turnaround plan
- intel political pressure
Companies and tickers mentioned
- LLY
- PTON
- INTC
- Eli Lilly
- Warner Bros. Discovery
- Peloton Interactive
- Intel
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Intelligence
-
Instant Reaction: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board | Bloomberg Intelligence -
Nvidia’s Huang Ousted by Board in Move That Roils AI Economy | Bloomberg Intelligence -
CoreWeave Shares Soar After AI Computing Firm Eases Debt Fears | Bloomberg Intelligence -
Anthropic Targets $1.4 Trillion Valuation in Blockbuster IPO | Bloomberg Intelligence -
Nvidia Probe Into CEO Affair Raises Thorny Questions for AI | Bloomberg Intelligence -
Election 'Blue Wave' & Your Wallet; Navigating AI-Driven Market Volatility | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
