Episode summary
Disney Shares Slide as Profit Outlook Overshadows Streaming Wins | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 21 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Isabelle Lee · Guests: Geetha Ranganathan, Michael Halen, Woo Jin Ho
Summary
Disney’s quarter was broadly stronger than the stock reaction suggested: parks and streaming posted continued growth, fiscal 2025 EPS growth guidance was raised to 18% from 16%, and the NFL deal was framed as a major strategic boost for ESPN’s upcoming streaming launch. The bigger concern, according to the analyst, was not the quarter itself but the lack of specific fiscal 2026 guidance and Disney’s decision to stop disclosing Disney+ subscriber numbers, which shifts attention further toward profitability. Parks were described as highly resilient, with the domestic business shrugging off worries about Universal’s Epic Universe and benefiting from strong food, beverage, and concession spending.
McDonald’s was presented as another example of a consumer business executing well despite a cautious customer base. Global same-store sales rose 3.8%, with value offers, snack wraps, and menu refreshes helping drive traffic. The analyst said low-income traffic remains down double digits, but the company is offsetting that weakness with aggressive pricing and better product quality. Super Micro, by contrast, was treated as a harder stock to own after it cut expectations from a prior $40 billion view and guided fiscal 2026 revenue to at least $33 billion, raising questions about margins, competition, and how much AI server demand can translate into profit.
Key takeaways
- Disney’s raised fiscal 2025 EPS growth outlook to 18% helped, but the analyst said missing fiscal 2026 guidance likely disappointed investors.
- Disney’s parks remain a major profit engine, contributing about 55% to 60% of profits, and the analyst said Epic Universe had little impact.
- The analyst called Disney’s NFL deal strategically important because it strengthens ESPN ahead of the August 21 streaming launch.
- McDonald’s posted 3.8% global same-store sales growth, helped by value pricing, menu revamps, and stronger international performance.
- Super Micro’s fiscal 2026 revenue guide of at least $33 billion was still below its earlier $40 billion view, and the analyst said margin pressure is the key issue.
- The analyst said Dell is a serious competitor to Super Micro in large AI server deals, often winning business at low margins.
Notable quotes
“Very sustainable Isabelle. Um so you know we saw domestic parks and I say that because you know domestic parks actually coming into this year coming into this quarter”
“the NFL is absolutely the premium property, the gold standard”
“global sales at restaurants open at least 13 months rose 3.8% in the second quarter according to the company”
How the episode opens
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On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. One of my companies I used to cover, the Walt Disney Company, Mickey Mouse, they reported some numbers.
Uh, better than expected numbers. So, of course, the stock's down 2.9%. So, the Walt Disney Company reported better than expected third quarter earnings with continued growth at its parks and streaming business overshadowing a tough climate for movies and traditional TV.
Let's break it down with Githa Rangan. She covers all the media stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, Githa, it's it seemed to me like on the surface a pretty good quarter for Disney.
What's the street a little concerned about?
Yeah, really good quarter for for uh for Disney. Uh Paul, the beaten race for sure. Uh I think elevate, you know, expectations might have been, you know, slightly high.
Uh and the fact that they didn't necessarily give us any specific guidance for fiscal 2026. They did they did point to a raised guidance uh for EPS growth for uh fiscal 2025, 18% now instead of 16%. Uh but they didn't necessarily give us anything specific for fiscal 2026.
that could be a slight source of disappointment. Other than that, the only other thing that I think might be causing this reaction is that they did say that they will stop disclosing Disney Plus subscriber numbers. But again, this is not something totally unexpected.
I mean, Netflix has stopped doing this. Uh we're seeing this kind of move away from just subscriber numbers to a greater focus on profitability.
I want to zero in on parks because I'm still scarred by how expensive it was when I visited a couple of years ago as an adult.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- disney earnings
- streaming profit outlook
- restaurant and foodservice earnings
- mcdonalds demand
- ai server revenue guidance
Companies and tickers mentioned
- DIS
- MCD
- SMCI
- Walt Disney Co.
- McDonald’s
- Super Micro Computer Inc.
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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