Episode summary
Palantir Jumps After Reporting Record Quarterly Sales Growth | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 21 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo · Guests: Mandeep Singh, Kenneth Shea, Christopher Ciolino
Summary
Palantir’s record quarterly sales growth dominated the discussion, but the guest argued the rally has run far ahead of the fundamentals. He said the company’s commercial net new ARR and remaining deal value are still small relative to Microsoft, and that Palantir would need to sustain 40% to 50% growth for many quarters to justify its valuation. He also questioned whether investors can clearly understand the company’s business model, pointing to its heavy government exposure and uncertain visibility into how revenue is recognized.
Molson Coors was framed as another sign of pressure on the consumer. The guest said aluminum tariffs hurt margins, but the bigger issue is weak beer demand, especially in the US, where cautious consumers, softer Hispanic spending, bad weather, and broader secular shifts are weighing on volumes. He expects more promotion and innovation around low-alcohol, no-alcohol, flavor, and premixed drinks in the second half.
Caterpillar was presented as more resilient despite tariff headwinds. The guest said the company expects $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion of incremental tariff costs this year, but underlying demand remains strong, with backlog, orders, and dealer inventory trends still favorable. He highlighted energy and transportation, especially power generation for data centers, as a long-term growth driver that could offset cyclical softness in construction.
Key takeaways
- Palantir’s valuation implies 40% to 50% growth for 12 to 20 quarters, but the guest said he does not see that being sustainable.
- The guest said Palantir’s government exposure is more than 50% of revenue, creating a different profile from larger enterprise software peers.
- Molson Coors is facing a weak US beer market, tariff-driven cost pressure, and longer-term demand headwinds from cannabis, GLP-1s, and Gen Z drinking less.
- Caterpillar expects $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion of incremental tariff costs this year, but the guest said internal productivity and pricing can help offset them.
- The guest said Caterpillar’s power generation business is benefiting from data center demand and remains a key secular tailwind.
Notable quotes
“Palanteer really needs to grow at 50%. To be able to show any sort of stock return from this point on”
“their software out of the box will help you make sense of your big data strategy”
“you have some secular headwinds as well”
“underlying demand is still pretty darn resilient”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. There's been a ton of earnings out.
It's hard to keep up with all of it, but one that has been the talk of everywhere is Palant here, right? And one person who has been running around Bloomberg like crazy is Mandep Singh. He's Bloomberg intelligence senior tech industry analyst.
Uh, thanks for coming out, Mand Deep, right in the studio. Um, the stock price surged more than 500% over the past year. I mean, this company is incredible.
Is it what the company CEO calls a dominant software company of the future? Would would you say? I mean clearly there is a lot baked into the valuation but I want to focus on uh you know the net new ARR which is a metric that uh software companies are measured on and when you compare Palunteer's commercial segment revenue which everyone is excited about
Their total uh deal value that's remaining is around 2.8 8 billion. The new ARR increased by 500 million. Contrast that with a Microsoft or a Google cloud.
Uh Microsoft added almost 9 billion in net new ARR this quarter and they talked about you know AI being used across 100 million Microsoft copilot users, 20 million GitHub copilot users. So from that perspective, you know, Palanteer's increase in remaining deal value of 500 million looks pretty small. I mean, Palunteer's overall revenue run rate is 4 billion.
Microsoft clearly is uh you know uh a company that's almost 100 times uh or 80 times more uh uh bigger than uh Palanteer.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- palantir earnings
- ai business impact
- molson coors guidance cut
- consumer weakness
- tariffs and capex
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PLTR
- TAP
- CAT
- Palantir Technologies Inc.
- Molson Coors Beverage Co.
- Caterpillar Inc.
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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