Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 15th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Susan Bell, Edward Mills, Georg Wunderlin
Summary
Energy markets are being whipsawed by the risk that flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay constrained, with Susan Bell saying the physical oil market is far more stressed than headline Brent prices suggest. She argued that dated Brent is trading at a large premium to ICE Brent, and that the market will not truly rebalance until flows restart. Bell said the biggest pain point is energy, but warned that fertilizer scarcity could spill into food shortages, while LPG remains critical for India and Asia’s supply chain.
The discussion then shifted to Washington, where the host and Edward Mills focused on the latest threat to fire Jerome Powell and the broader fight over Fed independence. Mills said the Supreme Court is likely to limit the president’s authority, and that the episode may actually strengthen Powell’s position. He said Kevin Warsh remains the base case to become Fed chair, with the market already pushing rate cuts into next year, while the real market test would come through rates and the Fed balance sheet rather than equities.
Later, Georg Wunderlin of Schroders Capital said the recent private credit stress is mainly a liquidity problem in semi-liquid vehicles, not a systemic credit event. He argued that investors have been trading in and out of illiquid assets without fully appreciating the structure, and said the opportunity set is strongest in asset-backed lending against infrastructure, real estate and hard assets. His takeaway was that the industry grew too quickly in some areas and needs more discipline and diversification after the easy-money years.
Key takeaways
- Susan Bell said dated Brent is about $25 higher than ICE Brent and that physical oil markets remain "extremely stressed" until Hormuz flows normalize.
- Bell warned that if Iran retaliates and Red Sea flows are also disrupted, Asia could face heavier crude and LPG pressure, with fertilizer costs raising food-scarcity risk.
- Edward Mills said the threat to fire Powell may backfire, making the Fed more independent and leaving Kevin Warsh as the base case for chair.
- Mills said the market has mostly pushed rate cuts into next year, so the main reaction would show up in rates and the Fed balance sheet, not equities.
- Georg Wunderlin said the private credit issue is liquidity stress in semi-liquid funds, not asset impairment, and that asset-backed lending offers better collateral and resilience.
Notable quotes
“the physical markets are extremely stressed, and I think you know, a lot of focus is on the ICE Brent price”
“the true physical markets are extremely stressed”
“we really do need to see flows established out of the Strait of Hormuz before the physical markets can start to rebalance”
“the market has taken out the price you know kind of the the cuts for this year pushed it into next year”
“the issue is is much more the how you deal with this in the context of semi-liquid structures or liquid structures”
How the episode opens
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I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m.
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A setback to the energy story, crude rising after Iran warned the US against continuing its naval blockade saying it would violate the terms of the ceasefire. Susan Balef writes that energy writing Hormuz will reopen, but the question is how much pain the market absorbs in the meantime. Susan joins us now for more.
Susan, good morning and welcome to the studio. Thank you so much. Let's get into how much pain we're experiencing right now.
Just describe what's happening in physical markets. Well, the physical markets are extremely stressed, and I think you know, a lot of focus is on the ICE Brent price, but the ICE Brent price is a cash-settled market, right? It's not a physically settled market, and really what if you want to see what the pain is, look at dated Brent.
And dated Brent premiums to ICE Brent are in the order of 25. Yesterday, the market closed out with dated Brent at I think $30 higher than ICE Brent. So, the true physical markets are extremely stressed.
Do you expect that to turn around anytime soon? Because this market, and when I say this market, this equity market has moved on really, really quickly. Right.
No, I don't. I mean, we really do need to see flows established out of the Strait of Hormuz before the physical markets can start to rebalance.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- energy downstream
- washington policy
- capital markets outlook
- asset management
- macro and markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RJF
- Rystad Energy AS
- Raymond James
- Schroders Capital
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 15th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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