Episode summary
Stocks Extend Highs as Traders Await Truce Update | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Bob Doll, Dan Tannebaum, Lauren Hochfelder, Wendy Schiller
Summary
The discussion centered on the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the United States is moving toward a broader war or a negotiated reset. A guest with sanctions expertise argued that Moscow has benefited from higher oil prices, China has mostly been a buyer of Iranian crude, and the likely endgame is a deal resembling the 2015 nuclear accord, with sanctions relief traded for limits on enrichment. He said the blockade functions like another hard-power tool, but warned the world could end up back where it was 11 years ago, or worse.
The market conversation was more constructive. Bob Doll said stocks are being lifted by a mix of good news, bad news and no news, while the economy and earnings remain decent enough to support the rally. He argued that the war has been brief, that earnings estimates may need to come down a bit, and that valuations around 21 times earnings leave him wanting a lower multiple. He still favored financials on weakness and said the U.S. market’s breadth has been mediocre even as it hits new highs.
Lauren Hochfelder of Morgan Stanley said real estate and infrastructure are better positioned because higher energy prices, elevated geopolitical risk and higher construction costs support limited new supply. Wendy Schiller of Brown said Trump is trying to avoid ground troops, that public support for a wider war is weak, and that the political risk rises alongside inflation, housing stress and fear of layoffs.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Russia and China have benefited from the Iran conflict, mainly through higher oil prices and continued Iranian oil flows.
- The guest expects a deal similar to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, with sanctions relief tied to limits on enrichment.
- Bob Doll said the rally is being driven by decent earnings and a still-solid economy, but he wants a lower market multiple than 21 times.
- Bob Doll said financials look attractive on year-to-date weakness, while semis may need a correction even after the new high.
- Lauren Hochfelder said higher energy prices and construction costs, plus limited new supply, make real estate and infrastructure relatively resilient.
- Wendy Schiller said the political risk for Republicans rises if the conflict widens and economic anxiety worsens.
Notable quotes
“I think Moscow has been the winner for the last few weeks, Tom, because of the increasing oil prices through this conflict”
“I think this is going is I think it's a reversion to a deal similar to what President Obama hammered out in 2015 under the joint comprehensive plan of action”
“good news is good news, bad news is good news, and no news is good news. You buy stocks”
“real estate actually and infrastructure for that matter as well is set up pretty darn well today”
“I think there are real concerns. However, there are also concerns with the Democrat incumbents”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We have an esteemed guest who has serious knowledge about these tensions across Eurasia.
His name is Daniel Tenebomb. He's been a wonderful supporter of the show and we feel that his time is so important uh versus the Q&A that we've been hearing. He is with Oliver Wyman, a senior fellow Atlantic Council.
Dan Tanibam, you are encyclopedic on sanctions and the economic tensions with Moscow. No doubt Vladimir Putin and his team are listening to this press conference. How does it translate in Moscow?
I mean, I I think Moscow has been the winner for the last few weeks, Tom, because of the increasing oil prices through this conflict. And as we saw, there was about a month period where the Trump administration authorized the purchase of Russian oil pretty much by the world. So, I think Russia has certainly been a beneficiary of this conflict.
Also, China. Um, but I'm not sure there's anything new that Russia is gleaning here because obviously the US hasn't been involved in any sort of kinetic activities directly on the Russia front visav the conflict in Ukraine. Dan, we just heard from the Secretary of Defense as well as military leaders about the tremendous military success the US armed forces is having in that in Iran which has led in large part to this ceasefire.
What are next steps do you think? How do you think this really plays out?
So I mean again I think it also depends on success is dictated by what was the objective.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us economy signals
- us-iran peace deal
- real estate resilience
- geopolitical risks
- fed powell threats
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- Crossmark Global Investments
- Oliver Wyman
- Atlantic Council
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management
- Brown University
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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