Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 2nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 22 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Stephen Schork, Ed Mills, Sarah Hunt
Summary
The discussion centered on how the Iran-related disruption is pushing oil prices higher and widening regional market dislocations. One guest argued that U.S. crude, especially WTI, had been artificially suppressed and is now catching up to global reality, with a near-term path toward $130 to $134 a barrel and, if the disruption persists, even $150 to $160 before demand destruction meaningfully kicks in. He said inventories in the U.S. are high, but logistics and tanker constraints mean supply is not where it needs to be.
A second guest said the market is underestimating how long it will take for conditions to normalize after any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He expected the next two to three weeks to bring greater operational intensity, a higher probability of a ground operation than markets expect, and more pressure on allies to align behind U.S. policy. He also said the president’s address was aimed at preparing the American public for escalation rather than closure.
The equity discussion turned to earnings and valuations. A third guest argued higher energy costs threaten 2026 earnings, while multiple compression has made some stocks attractive. She said the Magnificent Seven’s heavy capex is increasingly a concern, but also noted their cash generation still makes them resilient over a longer horizon.
Key takeaways
- Oil market risk is now a global pricing problem, with one guest seeing WTI moving toward $130 to $134 a barrel over the next three weeks.
- The same guest said demand destruction likely does not begin until oil reaches roughly $150 to $160 a barrel.
- Another guest said the market is underestimating the chance of a ground operation and the time needed for the Strait of Hormuz to normalize.
- A guest on equities said higher energy prices will pressure 2026 earnings and make near-term valuation optimism harder to sustain.
- The equity strategist said the Magnificent Seven remain cash-rich, but their large capex budgets are becoming a bigger investor concern.
Notable quotes
“we have extremely fat tails on the distributions of potential outcomes uh three weeks since we could be looking at $133 uh in oil”
“certainly the path is higher to our second tier uh envelope which is like I said $130 $134 a barrel”
“I don't see how earnings are going up for 2026”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. Steven Shul of the Short Group writing, "Hormers remains at risk and ceasefire prospects a weak pointing to a prolonged geopolitical disruption to global flows.
Steven joins us now for more. Steven, welcome to the program. Let's just run with the base case as presented by the president.
Things can change, I know that, but let's run with two to three weeks. Where would this energy market be? Where will it be in two to three weeks?
Absolutely. So, at the rate we're going right now, the way we've modeled it for the next actually three weeks, the uh current um time frame for the spot market right now is $103 a barrel. What was our top was our initial we'll call it our one standard deviation envelope and all of the simulations that we've run in potential price paths.
Now that we are well beyond that, what do we do? We begin to look for that next. And because of the volatile that's been introduced, we have extremely fat tails on the distributions of potential outcomes uh three weeks since we could be looking at $133 uh in oil.
So John, what what we're essentially looking at or doing is the United States it's oil and the contract that we're following in this case NX WTI that's been the cheapest barrel in the world.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook
- economic policy
- investment strategy
- world markets
- u.s. economy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Raymond James & Associates
- Alpine Saxon Woods
- Schork Group
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 2nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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