Episode summary
Oil Surges on Fears of Prolonged War | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 34 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: David Stubbs, Terry Haines, Martha Gimbel, Atsi Sheth, Ed Ludlow
Summary
Oil’s surge on fears of a prolonged war frames the market discussion, with the first segment arguing that the immediate shock is not just crude but refined products, shortages, and the timing of supply disruption across Asia and other energy-dependent economies. The host and a guest said the key question is how long global activity can absorb higher feedstock and shipping costs before the damage reaches growth.
The investing conversation centers on inflation returning as a recurring problem and breaking the old 60/40 portfolio balance. A guest said AlphaCore Wealth Advisory is leaning on private markets, alternatives, absolute return products, and thematic managers because stocks and bonds may both struggle when energy shocks and AI-related disruption hit fundamentals. The same guest also said private credit is important and generally sound, but asset growth has likely moved into a later phase after years of rapid expansion.
Other interviews widened the lens. A policy analyst argued Trump’s foreign policy is improvisational but still shaped by interdependence with allies, while a budget expert said tariffs are still feeding through to consumers and businesses, with too much uncertainty for firms to plan. A Moody’s analyst warned that credit quality has shifted from resilience to emerging fragility, and Bloomberg’s tech coverage said NASA’s Artemis program is a geopolitical race whose timeline depends heavily on political support.
Key takeaways
- A guest said the market shock is about oil, refined products, and shortages, with Asia especially exposed because inventories are thin and shipping lags are only 4 to 6 weeks.
- AlphaCore Wealth Advisory is using private markets, absolute return products, and thematic managers because the guest expects the 60/40 portfolio to fail again when inflation reappears.
- The guest said private credit is not the core problem; the bigger risk is AI undermining both equity and debt fundamentals across public and private markets.
- Martha Gimbel said tariffs are still only partly passed through, with firms facing uncertainty about the effective rate by product and industry.
- Asha Swarup said Moody’s is seeing a shift from “remarkable resilience” to “emerging fragility” as the war feeds through oil, funding costs, and physical risk.
Notable quotes
“the big news for markets, of course, is that the 60/40 just failing again, you know, right? Equities down, bonds are not protecting”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.
This is the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7:00 a.m. Eastern on Apple car play or Android auto with the Bloomberg business app.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Infant San Diego David Stubbs with just wonderful cross-sectional analysis of the markets. Okay, for the stock market, what's the greatest benefit now?
To look at the bond market, to look at commodities, to look at currencies. Which market assists you in a stock market forecast? Well, it's all about oil and energy and it's all about the math now about how long can different parts of the global economy survive with this cost not just of the raw oil but of the refined products and then how long do we get to genuine shortages.
The Asian economy is a pretty close to it, right? 4 to 6 weeks is a sailing time. So, the last ships that got out are about to dock.
In in Asia, they're both energy intensive economies, energy dependent economies. They don't have a lot of the inventory. So, that's where it's really going to bite, Tom.
I totally agree, Paul. When I was coming in this morning, the basic besides the guy in the balcony complaining about the price per gallon. What David says here about feedstock down the down the pipeline is critical.
Yep. David, what are we doing here? I mean, are you trying to suggest to your clients let's look past this war weather.
I mean, the president last night was saying maybe a couple 3 weeks left. Who knows where the timetable is, but to the extent we can look past where we are with some of this Iran risk. Try to focus on that because and then focus on the fundamentals or are you just trying to dial back risk here?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil price shock
- inflation impact
- us tariffs
- global credit risks
- artemis mission
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MCO
- Moody's Ratings
- AlphaCore Wealth Advisory
- Pangaea Policy
- Yale Budget Lab
Watch the episode
Watch “Oil Surges on Fears of Prolonged War | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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