Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 23 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Anne Walsh, Brian Gardner, Troy Gayeski
Summary
The discussion centered on three pressures shaping markets: the Federal Reserve outlook, rising Treasury yields, and the concentration of capital in AI and private markets. One guest argued that the market is already doing part of the Fed’s job by tightening financial conditions, saying the second half of the year may lose some of the fiscal and balance-sheet stimulus that supported activity earlier in 2026.
On rates, the guest said the 10-year Treasury near 4.75% is roughly the top of the current range and would become a buying opportunity at 5%, while also rejecting the idea that the 30-year should move to 6%. He linked higher long-end issuance to Treasury borrowing and AI-related capital spending, but warned that data-center buildouts carry obsolescence risk and should be approached selectively rather than as a blanket bet.
The program also examined US-Canada trade tensions and tariff politics ahead of the midterms. Brian Gardner said the administration is treating trade as zero-sum and is still sensitive to affordability, even as negotiations with Canada have broken down. Troy Gayeski added that AI concentration is now a portfolio issue across public and private markets, and argued investors need diversification away from a single crowded theme.
Key takeaways
- The guest said a 10-year Treasury yield around 5% would be a buying opportunity, while 6% on the 30-year would be an aggressive level to buy into.
- The guest argued that AI-related issuance is raising long-end rates, but warned that data-center spending carries obsolescence risk and needs diversification.
- Brian Gardner said the US-Canada tariff fight reflects a zero-sum view of trade and could reshape USMCA expectations.
- The panel said affordability remains a political constraint, which is why the administration is still trimming tariffs on some products.
- Troy Gayeski said AI concentration has become a portfolio risk in both public and private markets, making non-AI growth exposures more valuable.
Notable quotes
“the market is going to do some of the Fed's job for them”
“If we see 5% on Treasuries on the 10-year, um, I would tell you that is a buying opportunity”
“I don't see us going to 6% on the on the 30-year and if it does, I would take the opposite view”
“There's trillions of dollars of CapEx in this space that is happening over the next several years”
“the concentration has gone up substantially”
How the episode opens
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This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.
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And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks sliding as investors brace for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday. And Warsh, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, writes the Jackson Hole meeting is an opportunity to clarify the strategy to address inflation.
The hawks have grown louder, but inflation progress should be enough to avoid hikes this fall. And joins us now for more. And good morning, good to see you.
Good morning. Glad to be here, thanks.
Get into this, as you know, I imagine you were anticipating us getting into the issues around Mark Walter's and his affiliation to Guggenheim more broadly. I'm going to go through the details as we understand them, as I understand them. Whether these loans from insurers were directed to other parts of his empire without being properly disclosed and labeled as affiliated transaction.
That seems to be the epicenter of the investigations right now. I'm sure clients are very interested in where you stand and what it means for Guggenheim Asset Management. Where does Guggenheim Asset Management sit in all of that?
Well, let me see if I can create some clarity around this. Um, in particular, what is not the focus of any inquiry is to our investment management process, our people, our performance and returns, or our trade allocations.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook
- economic surveillance
- investment strategy
- washington policy
- fixed income/markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SF
- Guggenheim
- Stifel
- Future Standard
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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