Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 17 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: George Goncalves, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Ted Mortonson
Summary
Stocks were higher and bond yields lower as the show focused on whether Treasury buyback plans, fiscal deficits, and large AI capital spending are pushing real rates up. A guest argued that the market is really repricing the cost of capital, not just inflation, because government borrowing, private AI investment, and limited capital all compete for funding. He said the issue is broader than Treasury policy and could keep resurfacing through the election cycle if deficits do not improve.
The discussion also centered on the Trump administration’s plan to double auto tariffs on Canadian vehicles and parts next year. The guest said the move looks like a real escalation, but still only affects about 5% of bilateral trade and may not break USMCA because both sides understand the relationship’s importance. He said the conflict is more likely to become a contained spiral than a full trade war.
On tech, the conversation turned to Nvidia’s earnings and the broader AI buildout. The guest said demand remains ahead of supply, pricing is improving, and the market may be underestimating how much spending still lies ahead. He also argued that politics, regulation, and power access may matter more than the cost of capital in determining how far the data-center boom can run.
Key takeaways
- The guest said real rates matter more than inflation expectations, because AI capex and government borrowing are competing for capital.
- He argued Treasury buybacks are not QE and said the fiscal problem is broader than one department.
- On Canada, the guest said the tariff threat is real but still likely stops short of blowing up USMCA.
- The guest expects Nvidia to surprise on earnings because demand and pricing remain strong.
- He said the biggest risk to the AI buildout may be politics and power access, not financing costs.
Notable quotes
“our deficits are not getting any better. And yeah, this is a time to kind of reflect on it”
“we're commanding a higher real cost of capital, which is, you know, that's the that's the clearing price”
“in general this is not QE right we have to be like really draw the distinction of what is happening from the Treasury perspective is not QE”
“The tariffs that the United States has imposed cover roughly 5% of bilateral trade”
“It's a great problem to have. I mean, they've got pricing leverage and they've got more demand than they can fulfill”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, we begin this hour with stocks higher and bond yields lower as criticism builds against Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's buyback plans. Billionaire investor Stanley Drailler writing in the journal this morning, the government's defending prices against fundamentals always lose.
Let the bond market speak. George Canas of MBFG joins us now for more. George, good morning.
Good to be on.
Do you agree with Stanny Ducker Miller this morning? I look at the bond market and market forces should always kind of dictate where things head. And I think that's that is the right sort of course of action, but this is complicated.
This is this is going to be a story that we're going to have and we've had for years. We're going to have this into the this election, into the 2028 election, into 2030. Like our deficits are not getting any better.
And yeah, this is a time to kind of reflect on it. It's not just the Treasury, right? This is a this is a governmentwide issue.
We're spending too much.
You can't find fundamentals seems to be the takeaway. And that's the argument so many people have made. 520 on 30s. Is that the right clearing price? Do you need to go higher than that? — Look, I mean, there's there's like a lot of different arguments, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us macro strategy
- trade practice
- tech strategy
- finance and economics
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MUFG Securities
- McLarty Associates
- Baird
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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