Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 20th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Steven Cook, Alicia Reese, Jitania Kandhari
Summary
The discussion opened with the U.S. military buildup around Iran and the prospect of strikes on military and strategic targets. The guest said the biggest question is not just whether an attack happens, but what counts as success, arguing that President Trump would define success on his own terms even if the outcome is unclear. He said the main risks are retaliation against U.S. partners, damage to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and escalation into a broader regional war.
On markets, the guest said Iran is most likely to respond by threatening Tel Aviv and disrupting regional energy flows, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE would likely help stabilize oil supplies if needed. He also said coordination between the U.S. and Israel is already significant and that regional bases are likely being made available even if allies stay publically quiet.
Later, the conversation shifted to Netflix’s bid for Warner Brothers. The guest said the deal is a distraction for Netflix stock, but not essential to the company’s growth story, because advertising remains a major opportunity. A final segment focused on global markets, where the guest argued that higher oil prices could lift CPI and keep the Fed cautious, while stronger returns in Japan, South Korea, and parts of emerging markets are being driven by AI-adjacent supply chains, commodities, and relatively better fiscal and monetary discipline.
Key takeaways
- The guest said any Iran strike would be judged by Trump’s definition of success, not by a fixed strategic endpoint.
- He said the most likely Iranian retaliation is missile fire against Israel and pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, not a direct match-up with U.S. forces.
- He argued the Netflix-Warner deal is a stock distraction for Netflix, but Netflix does not need it to keep growing.
- He said higher crude could lift CPI toward about 2.7% core PCE assumptions and delay Fed cuts.
- He sees Japan, South Korea, and selected EM markets as beneficiaries of AI supply chains, commodities, and stronger policy discipline.
Notable quotes
“the success is anything that President Trump defines it as”
“The risks are of course uh one that it does not work uh and that the regime remains in place”
“It is a distraction for the stock. Absolutely”
“the probability of that is clearly rising”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. So, here's the latest this morning.
The US amassing its largest military buildup in decades around Iran with current and former officials saying the Trump administration appears ready for strikes on military and strategic targets. Joining us to discuss is Steven Kirk, the senior Middle East fellow at CFR. Stephen, welcome back to the program.
I asked Jonathan, our colleague, what does success look like? Struggle to answer. Think most people do.
But there's an additional question we've all got to ask as well. What is success and are the risks of pursuing it worth it? What's the answer to that, Stephen?
Well, first on the question of success, the success is anything that President Trump defines it as. And I think that that's the that's the issue here. And that's what I think people are struggling with.
he uh operates in a totally different foreign policy level than most of us who've grown up around the US foreign policy establishment which is he could very well order the strikes and however they come out he'll declare it a success whether it's regime change or attacking the uh Iran nuclear program. Now you asked a very important question about the risks. The risks are of course uh one that it does not work uh and that the regime remains in place uh retaliates against uh American partners in the region uh fires on American uh forces in the region and we're often running into a broader regional war.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- markets
- equity research
- multi-asset investing
- middle east & africa
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- Wedbush Securities
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 20th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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