Episode summary
US Eco Data in Focus as Iran Tensions Simmer | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Anastasia Amoroso, Lindsey Piegza, Jane Foley, Dina Esfandiary
Summary
The conversation opened on a constructive market and macro backdrop, with the guest arguing that U.S. equities could still post 10% or more this year if consumer strength, capital spending and housing all firm up. She said the case for investing now is not U.S. versus Europe or Asia, but all of them, because supply-chain localization and onshoring are changing how global exposure works. She also argued that Europe has cyclical upside from German fiscal stimulus, trade agreements and a rotation away from software-heavy U.S. leadership.
On the U.S. market, the guest said the AI trade is not gone, but the market is increasingly rewarding tangible assets and physical capacity rather than software models that can be disrupted overnight. She pointed to solid earnings, rising margins and the ability of hyperscalers to issue debt because of strong free cash flow. She also said private credit still looks attractive, with yields around 9% to 10% and low default rates in sponsor-backed secular growth lending.
The later macro segment focused on softer but still resilient U.S. growth, sticky inflation and a Fed likely to stay on the sidelines. The economist argued that real final sales to domestic purchasers are the cleaner read on momentum, while inflation near 3% keeps pressure on the Fed. A separate FX segment said the dollar still has safe-haven qualities, while the yen may eventually strengthen if the Bank of Japan keeps tightening. The final geopolitical discussion warned that the U.S. military buildup around Iran could make escalation hard to contain.
Key takeaways
- The guest argued U.S. equities could still deliver 10% or more in 2026 if consumer spending, capex and housing keep improving.
- She said investors should not choose between the U.S., Europe and Asia because supply-chain localization now requires regional allocation.
- She sees Europe as supported by German fiscal stimulus, trade deals and a broader cyclical recovery, especially outside the U.S. AI trade.
- The guest said private credit still offers attractive carry around 9% to 10% with low default rates in sponsor-backed growth deals.
- The economist said inflation near 3% likely keeps the Fed on the sidelines even if growth remains solid.
- The FX strategist said the dollar still has safe-haven appeal, while the yen may strengthen only if the Bank of Japan accelerates hikes.
Notable quotes
“I think we have a chance at that for sure. I mean earlier in the year I thought we would hit 7,000 and stayed there”
“you know, the broader backdrop is supportive, right, on a number uh of different factors”
“I think the way we see allocations is that you don't pick one or the other you do both you do US you do Europe you do Asia”
“I do think there's this realization that for the last maybe 10 years. It's been software's world and we've all been living in it”
“private credit despite the headlines that are out there we see fundamentals that are still quite solid”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. She is with private wealth, chief investment strategist, private wealth at partners group.
Anastasia Amarosa joins us and she is one of the select few that said climb on board this American economic experiment and enjoy a multi-year bull market. Are we going to double digit again this year? Are we going to pop four years?
Is it four years in a row? Double digit.
I think we have a chance at that for sure. I mean earlier in the year I thought we would hit 7,000 and stayed there. We haven't managed to do that yet. — Come on, we've pulled back three or 5%.
Well, three or 5%, but the expectation for the year was around 7% return. So, yes, Tom, we might get to that 10% or more uh for this year. But, you know, the broader backdrop is supportive, right, on a number uh of different factors.
The consumer side, I think, is actually strengthening this year as we speak. The other notable development for me this week is all about capex. And capex not only in the United States and not only from hyperscalers, but capex globally.
We've got the European manufacturing numbers came out this morning and those popped quite significantly driven by German fiscal stimulus. So, you know, back to kind of the US economy though, capex also is an engine now. And then housing, maybe that'll pick up too.
Yesterday, Paul was way too optimistic. — Yeah, — I mean I mean sorry there's like an optimistic tone going on.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us eco data
- fed path
- ai disruption fears
- currency positioning
- middle east tensions
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SF
- Partners Group
- Stifel
- Rabobank
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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