Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 23th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 21 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Norman Roule, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Darryl White
Summary
The discussion centered on rising geopolitical and policy risks that are shaping markets: the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the fallout from the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and the push into critical minerals. A former senior U.S. intelligence official said the Thursday meeting in Geneva is an inflection point, arguing that the U.S. has put significant military assets in place and that Iran is likely trying to buy time rather than meaningfully soften its position. He said the key question is whether the U.S. and Israel want to stop Iran from rebuilding its nuclear, missile, and militia capabilities now or accept a higher cost later.
On trade, a former White House trade adviser said companies are still waiting on possible tariff refunds and that litigation could take a long time. She argued that even if one tariff tool is struck down, the administration has other authorities, and a more durable tariff regime could emerge under 301 or 232 measures.
At BMO’s metals, mining, and critical minerals conference, the CEO said demand is being driven by the AI power buildout and global supply-chain realignment. He said companies are adapting to tariff volatility, investors remain confident in North American projects, and consolidation in the sector should continue.
Key takeaways
- The former intelligence official said Thursday’s Geneva talks could determine whether the U.S. moves toward military action against Iran by around March 3rd.
- He argued Iran is unlikely to soften on its nuclear program, missiles, and regional militia support without major pressure.
- The former trade adviser said companies like Costco and Alcoa are still waiting to see whether tariff refunds will materialize after the Supreme Court ruling.
- She said the ruling could push policy toward a more durable tariff environment under 301 or 232 authorities.
- BMO’s CEO said the critical minerals boom is being driven by AI power demand and supply-chain resilience needs.
- He said consolidation in mining is likely to continue, with investors favoring North American assets despite tariff uncertainty.
Notable quotes
“Thursday represents the third round of talks and the United States uh will be looking to see if Iran's uh proposal”
“I think you're you're you're touching the heart the matter here. There is uh highly likely a significant debate ongoing within Iran”
“we have never seen this sort of military buildup in against the Islamic Republic in the history of the Islamic Republic in the United States”
“a lot of companies continue to be in a wait andsee posture to to find out what happens next there”
“what we may end up with here is a durable Trump tariff scenario which we didn't have in the AIBA environment”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
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The US and Iran are preparing for another round of nuclear talks. The two sides are set to meet on Thursday in Geneva. Former senior US intelligence official Norman Rule joins us now.
Norm, thank you so much for being with us. Will was just talking about how it's unknowable exactly what any kind of Iranian response would be to US action. What's your take on how close we are right now to some sort of hot war in the region?
Good morning. Uh we're we're approaching an inflection point. Uh Thursday represents the third round of talks and the United States uh will be looking to see if Iran's uh proposal its written proposal from uh uh the supreme with the supreme leader's approval will show any indication of softening the Iranian position.
That is unlikely. Uh but uh if there is uh no change in the Iranian position, then we are rapidly approaching the uh end of the president's uh deadline um uh for uh uh some sort of significant change in Iran's position on its nuclear program, missiles, and regional militia building. That's going to be about March 3rd.
Uh based on the original February 20th announcement, the president has all assets in place to conduct a massive uh air and missile campaign against Iran's strategic capabilities against which Iran has no uh uh credible uh defense.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- markets
- investment
- trade
- geopolitics and terrorism
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BMO
- BMO Financial Group
- Center for Strategic & International Studies
- McLarty Associates
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 23th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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