Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 19 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Bob Michele, Doreen Edelman, Beth Kindig
Summary
Stocks edged higher as bonds rallied, with the market’s latest AI scare pushing Treasury yields to new lows for the year. A bond-market guest argued that fixed income still looks attractive: Fed funds are positive in real terms, the 2-year Treasury is close to policy rates, and credit spreads remain fair so long as recession stays distant. He said the recent move is confirming a bullish flattening view and drew fresh money into aggregate bond and core-plus funds rather than only into Treasuries.
The discussion then turned to stress in private credit and structured credit. The guest pointed to falling CLO equity prices and weakness in the triple-B-minus slice of structured credit as signs that first-loss pieces are cracking, though he described the issue as a mix of liquidity and asset-quality concerns rather than an outright crisis. He also said tariff uncertainty is freezing corporate capex and hiring decisions, and that clients remain focused on Fed independence and multiple rate cuts.
Later, a trade-policy guest said the Supreme Court’s rejection of the tariffs under AIPA means refunds should be available, but the process will be messy because millions of companies may file claims and timelines differ for unliquidated and liquidated goods. A tech analyst argued that Nvidia remains strong into earnings because Blackwell Ultra is already in volume production and the market is underestimating the chip cycle’s momentum.
Key takeaways
- The bond guest said yields look attractive because real policy rates are positive and recession risk still appears distant.
- The bond guest warned that CLO equity and triple-B-minus structured credit are cracking, echoing pre-2008 patterns.
- The guest said tariff confusion is freezing corporate hiring and capex decisions, adding uncertainty for corporate America.
- The trade-policy guest said the Supreme Court ruling makes tariff refunds available, but the administrative process could take months or longer.
- The tech analyst argued Nvidia can still clear earnings easily because Blackwell Ultra is already shipping in volume production.
Notable quotes
“The US economy continues to operate at trend with continuing disinflation, tax refunds, and AI capex and nice tailwinds”
“I feel that the bond market is sitting here with a growing stack of chips”
“It is the counterbalance to risk”
“it's looking like the first loss pieces of structured credit, much like that ' 05 to07 period, are starting to crack”
“this is going to be an absolute mess”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, we begin this hour with stocks creeping higher following another AI scare. The latest bout of risk aversion helping to drive bond yields down towards new lows for the year.
Bob Michael of JP Morgan Asset Management writing, "The US economy continues to operate at trend with continuing disinflation, tax refunds, and AI capex and nice tailwinds. All of this is good for the bond market. Bob joins us now for more.
Bob, good morning. Happy to be here.
Bond yields, new lows for the year, very close to those levels right now. What's driving yields that much lower?
I feel that the bond market is sitting here with a growing stack of chips. We're getting all the chips from private capital and from equities where a lot of investment by clients is gone. Uh, as I talk to our clients, they still feel underallocated to fixed income.
Our message is come on in. We're great. We're the perfectly priced market.
If I think about the Fed funds rate at 3 and 5/8, I like it. Even if inflation runs at about 3% this year, you're talking about positive real yields on Fed funds of 5/8 of a percent. You look at the 2-year Treasury, it's near the Fed funds rate.
That looks pretty good at 340 or so.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook
- economic surveillance
- global trade policy
- investment strategy
- technology analysis
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- JPMorgan Investment Management
- Lowenstein Sandler
- I/O Fund
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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