Episode summary

Nvidia Earnings Loom for AI-Obsessed Stock Market | Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance · · 33 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Seema Shah, Mandeep Singh, Sonal Desai, Patrick McHenry

Nvidia Earnings Loom for AI-Obsessed Stock Market | Bloomberg Surveillance – Bloomberg Surveillance

Summary

The discussion centered on a market that is still being pulled in different directions by AI enthusiasm, valuation concerns, and policy uncertainty. A guest strategist argued that the recent wobble in technology is likely temporary, but that choppy trading could persist because investors are reassessing AI’s impact on jobs, software, and which companies will actually capture the upside. She also said the rotation into small caps, value, and other unloved parts of the market should continue if growth holds up, rates keep falling, and deregulation advances.

The conversation also highlighted how non-U.S. markets have strengthened relative to the United States. The strategist said cheaper valuations, a weaker dollar, and more certainty in parts of Europe and Asia are making international assets more attractive, while U.S. policy uncertainty is pushing the hurdle for American stocks higher. On fixed income, a guest from Franklin Templeton warned that the flood of tech debt issuance is beginning to pressure spreads and that investors should look more to emerging market debt, higher-quality high yield, and some convertible structures.

Mandeep Singh said Nvidia still looks positioned for upside into earnings because hyperscalers have raised capex plans, but he stressed that growth will eventually slow from an enormous base. He argued that the real issue now is who monetizes AI, not whether the technology is transformative. Patrick McHenry then shifted to politics, saying last night’s State of the Union was a missed opportunity for Democrats and that Trump’s coalition message on taxes, immigration, and tariffs was aimed at consolidating support heading into the election year.

Key takeaways

  • The strategist expects tech volatility to persist, but says the broader risk-on backdrop can return as markets refocus on fundamentals.
  • She said small caps and value remain attractive because valuations are favorable and growth, rate cuts, and deregulation are supporting the trade.
  • She argued international equities are gaining appeal because U.S. policy uncertainty and a weaker dollar make overseas opportunities more compelling.
  • The Franklin Templeton CIO warned that hyperscaler bond issuance could top 700 billion this year and may pressure credit spreads.
  • Mandeep Singh said Nvidia should see upside from stronger-than-expected capex plans, but growth rates will inevitably taper from a $300 billion run rate.
  • He said the market’s real AI question is not whether AI matters, but which companies can turn it into profits.

Notable quotes

“I would continue to expect choppy markets going forward”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Surveillance at 1:47

“the lack of certainty with regards to US policy is really starting to grate on a lot of investors”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Surveillance at 4:58

“when you are growing 70% at the scale that Nvidia is at you know $300 billion run rate for 2026”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Surveillance at 19:22

“we all agree AI is transformative, but who is it transforming in a positive sense”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Surveillance at 15:00

How the episode opens

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See Michelle with us right now. Thrilled to have her uh uh with us from uh London always here on the shifting tides uh that we see with principal asset management the chief global uh strategist. Sema I I look at the the the discussion of the last 48 hours maybe 72 hours and there seems to be a threat to technology a threat that takes risk risk loving out of the markets.

Is that shiftable? Do you think that there can be a rebuttal where we get back on board and optimism about software, AI and technology?

Yeah. Hi Todd. Um I I certainly think that that this is this is a fleeting moment.

I mean I do think that the narrative around tech the potential displacement from uh which would come from AI is something which is going to be lingering in the market for a while. Uh but overall I do think that that sense of risk on can return. You know the macro backdrop is pretty strong.

There's a lot of concerns at the moment about what AI could do to to jobs. I think a lot of that is a little bit misplaced very very forward-looking. So I think as time goes and the market should settle down and start to really refocus on those fundamentals.

But I would continue to expect choppy markets going forward. So Simma, we've seen that rotation out of some of the high growth, higher multiple uh stocks uh really starting kind of late last year and into this year.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • trade policy uncertainty
  • nvidia earnings
  • ai disruption fears
  • asset allocation
  • state of the union

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • NVDA
  • BEN
  • Nvidia
  • Principal Asset Management
  • Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Franklin Templeton
  • Bloomberg

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