Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 22 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Julian Emanuel, Adam Posen, Kelly Ann Shaw
Summary
Equities were framed as resilient despite valuations, geopolitical anxiety, and political noise, with one guest arguing that better earnings growth, stable long-term yields, and possible rate cuts still point to higher stocks in 2026. Nvidia was described as a major near-term market event, with the guest saying the report will likely be strong and that positioning in technology remains light even as investors stay cautious about Iran and broader policy risk.
The discussion also emphasized that the market is signaling stress around Iran more than around the broader economy. The options market, oil positioning, and credit pockets were all cited as showing hedging against a worse outcome, while the base case remained some form of limited engagement or diplomatic off-ramp. At the same time, 10-year yields near 4% and generally healthy credit conditions were read as evidence that growth fears are present but not yet systemic.
On affordability and tariffs, Adam Posen argued that prices are still likely to rise, that the labor market is stronger than many think, and that tariff relief would not automatically bring lower shelf prices. Kelly Ann Shaw said the administration may still push tariffs toward 15%, but legal constraints around section 122 could shape how that is implemented. She also said the tariff agenda remains a core policy, even if the messaging is difficult politically.
Key takeaways
- One guest said stocks still look likely to move higher because earnings growth, sedate long-term yields, and potential rate cuts outweigh current anxiety.
- The guest said Nvidia is likely to beat expectations, and the main question is how the shares respond given light positioning in technology.
- The guest said options, oil, and pockets of credit distress imply investors are hedged for a worse Iran outcome than the market base case.
- Adam Posen said affordability is likely to get worse, because the labor market is stronger than people think and tariffs still feed prices.
- Kelly Ann Shaw said the administration is still expected to try for a 15% tariff increase, but section 122 implementation could force carveouts and legal caution.
Notable quotes
“the backdrop, the macro backdrop in a year where we're getting better earnings growth, it's likely going to be double digits when all is said and done in 2026”
“the report today will be good. They will beat on the metrics. It's just a question of how the shares will respond”
“I think they are. John, thanks for having me back. And I feel the first time in my life, I feel a little bit of sympathy for Donald Trump because there's just not that much he can do on affordability”
“it's technically a 10% tariff that went into effect at 12:01 a.m. yesterday, but I do understand from the administration that they are still looking to implement the president's 15% tariff increase”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Here's a view on Wall Street this morning.
Julian Emanuel of Everor writing, "The president's speech last night celebrated American values intensified the partisan divide in Washington and maintained the uncertainty around the situation with Iran. Julian joins us now for more. Julian, good morning.
Good morning. — I read your recent note. Despite valuations, despite geopolitical anxiety, despite the political anxiety, despite a series of blowups, the index has been really, really resilient. What does that tell you? I — It tells us that, you know, the backdrop, the macro backdrop in a year where we're getting better earnings growth, it's likely going to be double digits when all is said and done in 2026. Long-term yields staying very, very, you know, sedate, particularly when you think about the rest of the world. uh stimulus and the potential for rate cuts. It says that stocks are likely going higher.
Now that we've passed the state of the union, is Nvidia the big event of this week? I mean, how big of a sign of a market moving event is this going to be? — It's very big. I mean what's fascinating to us is is you know we're comfortable with being contrarians and when we came into 2026 we felt that you know being overweight the AIcentric names and themes was really inconsistent and that changed very quickly.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- equity strategy
- quantitative outlook
- international economics
- investment themes
Companies and tickers mentioned
- EVR
- Evercore ISI
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Atkin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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