Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Geoffrey Yu, Stephen Auth, Edward Bastian
Summary
Stocks were lower and oil higher as the conversation centered on whether inflation, Fed expectations, and geopolitics can keep markets from extending a run built on disinflation hopes. One guest argued that a July rate hike looked unlikely, said the bar for further tightening was very high, and pointed to the U.S. AI and capex boom as a major source of growth that is separating the U.S. from the rest of the world. The same guest said the Strait of Hormuz matters, but less than the market fears, because the world is finding ways to move oil around it and because pressure may build only if price increases become visible to consumers in places like Japan.
Another guest made the bullish case for equities, saying earnings are surging, margins are rising, and estimates have been raised into earnings season rather than cut. That guest framed the recent chip-stock pullback as a healthy correction in a market that had become overheated, and argued that semiconductor leaders are becoming less cyclical as capacity stays constrained and long-term contracts lock in revenue.
At Delta Air Lines, the chief executive said the U.S. consumer remains resilient, especially at the higher end, and that sticky fuel costs should be manageable. He said premium travel and international demand are strong, fares still have room to rise relative to inflation, and the airline’s disciplined capacity strategy should support margins even if oil stays elevated.
Key takeaways
- The host and a guest said an inline CPI print would likely keep the door closed on a July Fed hike, with the hurdle for tightening described as very high.
- One guest said about 80% of the U.S. growth story is tied to the AI capex trade, with the Strait of Hormuz contributing only about 20% of the market concern.
- Stephen Auth argued that earnings are rising fast, with estimates up into earnings season and year-over-year growth around 22%, which he said supports the bull case.
- Stephen Auth said chip stocks are shifting from cyclical boom-bust names to longer-duration growers because there are only three major manufacturers and capacity is now tightly controlled.
- Edward Bastian said Delta’s higher-end customer base can absorb sticky fuel costs and that premium fares still have room to rise because they lag inflation by 10% to 15%.
Notable quotes
“I really don't see a case for hikes anywhere”
“earnings are exploding to the upside, Jonathan. I mean, this bull market started with earnings down below $200 and we're looking at $450”
“What we've been happy to see is been more of a rolling correction, which is a healthier way to do it”
“I think we'll do do just fine. You know, we look at our business model. Our business model is geared towards a higherend consumer”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks lower and oil higher.
Jeff U of BNY writing the following. Disinflation hopes are still carrying sentiment. Growth, earnings, and policy risk are harder to ignore.
Jeff joins us now for more. Jeff, welcome buddy. Let's frame the next 24 hours together.
A new town be your priority. We've got earnings, we've got CPI, we've got chair Kevin Walsh, we've got developments in South Korea and issues through the straight of Hmer. Where's your focus this morning?
Well, so all of the above and how that impacts Fed expectations, how that impacts policy expectations. Full stop. Everything will be fine as long as there's no major shift higher in inflation and inflation expectations.
For now, that remains our base case. And to be frank, don't think anything changes that we need healthy disinflation at this point. But I agree what you were saying earlier.
What's going on in the straight right now, it's a new equilibrium. We have to get used to it, not just in the short term, but over the long term.
Well, Jeeoff, let's turn to 8:30 Eastern time tomorrow morning. CPI drops. If we get an inlined CPI, do you think that closes the door to a July rate hike? — Um, I would say the door wasn't really open.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- emea markets
- equity outlook
- economy
- financial markets
- airline industry
Companies and tickers mentioned
- FHI
- DAL
- BNY Mellon
- Federated Hermes
- Delta Air Lines
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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