Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 22nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Lori Calvasina, Jordan Rochester, Dave McCormick
Summary
Stocks were described as little changed after two weeks of gains, with the conversation centered on whether the market can absorb more rate hikes, hotter inflation, and a still-strong earnings season. Lori Calvasina argued that equities can handle a moderate amount of tightening, and that the key range for 10-year Treasury yields is roughly 3.3% to 5%. She said earnings currently matter more than Thursday’s core PCE print because profit growth is still offsetting valuation pressure from higher rates.
The discussion also focused on whether the AI and semiconductor boom is nearing a peak. Calvasina said the market is seeing strong earnings tailwinds but that upward revisions may have reached “peak” enthusiasm, even if that does not automatically mean investors should sell. She pointed to rising capex participation beyond the largest AI names as one of the key uncertainties going into reporting season.
Later, the show shifted to UK politics and rates after Keir Starmer’s resignation. Jordan Rochester said the market reaction had already been priced in, and that the bigger risk is the policy direction of Andy Burnham or a left-leaning cabinet choice such as Ed Miliband. He argued that any bearish view on UK assets should be expressed as a spread trade versus the US or Europe.
A final segment with Senator Dave McCormick covered the Iran negotiations, the Fed, and AI. He said sanctions relief should be tied to verified Iranian concessions, and argued that AI is disinflationary over time while creating major investment and jobs in energy infrastructure and data centers.
Key takeaways
- Lori Calvasina said equities can withstand a moderate rate-hike path, with 10-year yields contained between 3.3% and 5% in her base case.
- Calvasina said earnings are more important than Thursday’s core PCE because strong profit growth is still offsetting valuation pressure from higher inflation and rates.
- Calvasina warned that upward revisions in semiconductors and the S&P 500 may be near peak enthusiasm, even though that does not yet justify a blanket sell signal.
- Jordan Rochester said the main UK market risk is not Starmer’s exit itself but a more expensive policy mix under Andy Burnham or Ed Miliband.
- Dave McCormick said any Iran deal should require open shipping lanes, no enriched uranium, and sanctions relief only for verified performance.
- McCormick argued AI is creating productivity gains and skilled-labor demand, while warning that the US must stay ahead of China and be careful about government intervention.
Notable quotes
“everything in moderation seems like something the equity market can handle”
“If we stay contained in that range, I think that we could have some short-term indigestion in markets, but still have a fairly good outlook over the next 12 months”
“I think that this is a situation in the equity market where we have very, very strong earnings tailwinds that are running up against very stiff headwinds on the PE side”
“we've sort of hit those peak levels of earnings enthusiasm”
“if you want to take a bearish view on the UK, you need to do it as a spread versus US or Europe”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on
Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. — We begin this hour with stocks little changed following two weeks of gains heading into this week's inflation data. Lori Calvasina of RBC writing the sentiment story has been one of mixed emotions with takeaways varying depending on which data set one is looking at. Lori joins us now for more. Lori, good morning. Good to see you.
Good morning. — Does the bull case stand up to the rate hike debate at the moment?
I I think so as long as you have a moderate amount of rate hikes. Um, we talked about this in our weekly a few weeks ago that whether you're looking at it from the perspective of the Fed taking rate taking their interest rate up or 10 10-year bond yields moving up, that when we go back and we look at the history both since 2022 on the bond yield side or if we look back to 1990 and look at sort of Fed moves over the context of 12-month moves in the market, everything in moderation seems like something the equity market can handle. If you go back to 2021 2022, we priced in an enormous amount of hikes.
We had a massive move up in 10-year bond yields. It was a real regime change.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us equity strategy
- ficc strategy
- economy
- world markets
- us politics
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RBC Capital Markets
- Mizuho Bank
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 22nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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