Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Steven Cook, Vikas Dwivedi, Emily Roland
Summary
The discussion centered on the war involving Iran, the difficulty of opening a negotiating channel, and the risk that the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained long enough to force a sharp oil-price move. An analyst said the U.S. may be relying on Pakistan and Egypt as intermediaries, but argued Tehran is highly skeptical after previous talks broke down. He said the U.S. cannot end the conflict with Iran’s regime still able to threaten neighbors, keep its nuclear program unconstrained, and control passage through the strait.
An oil analyst said Brent could revisit the 120 range in the base case and could reach 150 a barrel if the strait remains largely shut through April and lost flows do not return quickly enough. He said strategic reserves, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, OPEC storage, and refinery run cuts could soften the blow, but not remove the shortage. He also warned that Houthi action around the Red Sea and Yanbu would materially reduce those mitigations.
An investment strategist said markets are already sending mixed signals, with risk assets rallying while bonds still price ongoing inflation pressure. She said her team prefers quality stocks, income, and diversifiers, but is leaning into bonds when yields back up. She argued that higher oil prices eventually destroy demand, and that slowing growth and softer housing inflation could offset some of the commodity shock.
Key takeaways
- An analyst said Pakistan and Egypt appear to be the main intermediaries between Washington and Tehran, but Iranian skepticism remains high after past talks collapsed during military action.
- An oil analyst said Brent’s base case is a move back to 120-125, and 150 is possible if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely shut through April.
- He said strategic petroleum reserve releases, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, OPEC storage, and refinery cuts could reduce a 13 million-barrel-per-day shortfall to about 3 million.
- An investment strategist said the market favors momentum and lower-quality risk assets for now, but she prefers quality, income, and defensive sectors.
- She said oil prices around $120 a barrel have historically been the level where demand destruction starts to show up.
- The strategist argued that weaker housing inflation could offset some of the inflationary impact from higher energy prices.
Notable quotes
“the United States uh was able to reach uh the speaker of Iran's parliament who is quite powerful”
“The the United States cannot come out of this war with the Iranian regime intact”
“our base case is for uh Brent to revisit the 120 range”
“if the straight remains um you know largely shut. It's not completely shut”
“the cure for higher oil prices is higher oil prices”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
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Steven Kirk of the Council on Foreign Relations writing the following. President Trump must get clear, verifiable constraints on Iran's nuclear program and reestablish freedom of navigation through the strain of it is a strategic defeat for the US. Steven joins us now for more.
Steve, welcome to the program. If I want to call Iran, who do I call right now? Who do I speak to?
Well, that's a very good question. Uh the reporting is is that the United States uh was able to reach uh the speaker of Iran's parliament who is quite powerful. He of course has denied uh that any negotiations are going on.
There's also some indication that the Egyptian foreign minister was able to reach people within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. They have also denied the fact that there are going to be negotiations. Regardless of whether there are or there aren't, it does seem that the president is in keeping with his timeline of 4 to 6 weeks looking for a way to wind this conflict down.
Stephen, you know these countries really well, especially when it comes to Egypt, Pakistan, I know Turkey, you spent a lot of time in. Who do you think could be a real viable intermediary right now between Tyrron and Washington?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- economy
- finance
- investment strategy
- global oil and gas
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MFC
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Macquarie Energy
- Manulife Investment Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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