Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: George Goncalves, Jonathan Lieber, Matthias Cormann
Summary
Markets were dominated by the shock from the Middle East, with the guests arguing that the most important transmission channel is energy, not inflation data alone. George Goncalves said Treasury auctions are showing a global repricing in rates and that weak demand points to a pullback in buyers, while also warning that the fiscal outlook is getting harder to ignore. He said the move in longer-dated yields reflects real rates and growing concern about future supply.
Jonathan Lieber argued that the White House wants the war to stop because higher gasoline prices and falling approval ratings leave little room politically. He said diplomacy is possible but unlikely to gain traction because Iran has little reason to trust Washington after being attacked during negotiations. He also said any move involving U.S. troops would face major resistance in Congress and among the public.
Matthias Cormann said the OECD had to rely on technical assumptions because uncertainty is unusually high, but its outlook still points to a 4% average G20 inflation rate and weaker global growth. He said the U.S. could feel the shock through labor tightness, tariff effects, and slower net migration, while central banks should stay data-dependent and prudent.
Key takeaways
- George Goncalves said the weak Treasury auctions reflect a global repricing in rates and a buyer pullback, not just a U.S. story.
- Goncalves warned that real yields, especially beyond 5 years, are signaling growing fiscal concern.
- Jonathan Lieber said Trump’s main constraint is political: gasoline above $4 a gallon and no appetite for U.S. troops on the ground.
- Lieber said any effort to force open the Strait of Hormuz could trap the U.S. in a prolonged conflict.
- Matthias Cormann said the OECD now expects average G20 inflation to rise to 4% and sees significant downside risk to growth.
- Cormann said central banks should stay prudent and focus on incoming data as the energy shock evolves.
Notable quotes
“the US jobs market and consumers are already on shaky ground”
“we do actually see that the labor market remains relatively tight”
“we have upgraded our inflation outlook for this year by globally by 1.2%”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's get to the view on Wall Street this morning.
George Garvis of MUFG writing the impact from the war will likely turn out to be even more damaging than the tariff shock, especially considering that the US jobs market and consumers are already on shaky ground. George joins us now for more. George, good morning.
Good morning. — Let's start with Lisa's World, the auction. soft two-year, soft fiveyear, seven-year auction coming up a little bit later. What do you think is behind the weakness and demand for US government debt right now?
Look, I think it's a a repricing that's happened globally on the rate side. the US Treasury market really lagged everything else and this you know this sort of concern around like what is the new steady state for interest rates and you know heading into you know end of the month end of the quarter type environment these auctions usually do well and the fact that they're you know under pressure does kind of show that there's been a some sort of kind of buyer pullback
Muhammad Alarium wrote in the FT earlier this week about golf flows and the importance of the Gulf as a source of capital not just a source of energy is something happening with those golf flows in respect to what we've seen so far in the auctions.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us macro outlook
- european and global markets
- eurasia geopolitics
- oecd policy
- economy and investing
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MUFG
- MUFG
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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