Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 4th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Sebastien Page, Jonathan Lieber, Stephen Miran
Summary
Geopolitics and oil dominated the discussion, with the host pressing Sebastien Page on how a Middle East shock changes portfolio construction. Page said there is no clean base case, only short and long scenarios, and argued investors should favor hedges such as real asset equities, energy, metals and mining, and commodity stocks. He also said bond protection is less reliable when the shock is inflationary rather than growth-related, because oil can lift inflation expectations and pressure both stocks and bonds at the same time.
Jonathan Lieber said the conflict is likely to taper off within two to three weeks as Iran runs down missiles and the U.S. keeps pressure on the region, though he warned the fighting could intensify first. He emphasized the asymmetry of costs, with the U.S. firing expensive interceptors against cheaper drones, but said America’s industrial capacity helps over time.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran argued the shock is too early to change policy. He said oil may lift headline inflation, but he sees limited spillover into core inflation and still wants to move rates toward neutral. He also said the labor market can still use support and that AI and private-credit stress are not yet enough to force a new policy stance.
Key takeaways
- Sebastien Page said the market faces no base case on the Middle East shock, only short and long scenarios, and he prefers hedges over trying to trade headlines.
- Page argued that an inflation shock can make both stocks and bonds fall together, so portfolios need alternatives when oil is driving the move.
- Jonathan Lieber said the conflict likely tapers off in two to three weeks, but the U.S. and Iran still face a costly asymmetry in drones versus missile defenses.
- Stephen Miran said it is too early to alter Fed policy because oil’s effect on core inflation looks limited so far.
- Miran said he still favors cutting rates toward neutral and sees labor-market slack, even if markets worry about higher inflation.
- Miran said private-credit jitters may not show up in standard financial conditions indices, which can miss parts of the market that are already tight.
Notable quotes
“there is no base case. We're looking at scenarios that's the only way to manage this right now between short and long”
“If you get an inflation shock, both stocks and downs can go both both stocks and bonds can go down together”
“The Iran conflict will likely taper off within two to three weeks as the US and Israel successfully degrade Iran's military capabilities”
“it's too early to sort of have any firm views as a result of that. Oil's gone up a bit, but the major question is does oil stay up or does it come back down”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks looking to recover as geopolitics fuels major volatility.
Sebastian Page of Tro writing this. The bare case is a prolonged war, prolonged closure of the straight of escalating attacks on energy infrastructure. Our Brent range then would be 100 to 120.
Sebastian joins us now for more. Seb, welcome to the program. That's the bare case.
What's the base case? You know, our research platform's been on overdrive over the weekend as you can expect and I've been reading and reading the research from our analysts. And John, I can say there's there is no base case.
It's extremes on both sides. I hate saying the range of outcomes is wide because it always sounds like an out. But we really have two scenarios, one short, one long.
and the short scenario. Um, you know, I think the Wall Street Journal reported that this is a bit of a race in terms of the missiles and drones from Iran and then the defenses from the Gulf countries that both are running out. And then you just reported on news that um, you know, there are some I don't know if you call it rumors or something else, but there's some news items that are pointing towards the short scenario.
And then the long scenario is an escalation and you just outlined it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed policy
- global markets
- multi-asset investing
- economic outlook
- investment research
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TROW
- T. Rowe Price
- Eurasia Group
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 4th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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