Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Jonathan Lieber, Torsten Slok, Robert Lewin
Summary
The episode centered on three market-moving themes: the Iran-US confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz, the labor-market effects of AI, and KKR’s first-quarter results in private markets. On geopolitics, the guest from Eurasia Group argued that a ceasefire between the US and Iran is still fragile, with a deal more likely in June than in May because neither side has reached enough pain to force concessions. He said the US does not want a renewed fight and Iran is trying to preserve leverage while keeping the Strait open on its own terms.
The discussion then shifted to AI and employment. The Apollo economist argued that cheaper labor inputs created by AI, like voice recognition and automated scanning, should increase demand rather than destroy jobs outright, pointing to call centers in the Philippines and radiologists as examples. He said the bigger macro issue is timing: productivity gains may take years to show up in inflation data, while data-center capex and energy costs are already adding to price pressure.
Finally, KKR’s CFO defended the firm’s stock performance and said management fees rose 30% year-on-year in Q1. He argued that private credit remains attractive despite recent volatility, even if capital is coming out of direct lending and defaults may rise somewhat. He also said KKR is avoiding concentration risk by deploying capital steadily across vintages and sectors, including digital infrastructure.
Key takeaways
- The Eurasia Group guest said a US-Iran deal is unlikely before June because both sides still believe they have leverage and neither wants the ceasefire to collapse.
- He expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen only gradually, with economic pressure building over several more weeks before a deal is reached.
- The Apollo economist argued AI should lower the cost of labor inputs and ultimately raise demand, citing call centers in the Philippines and radiologists as examples.
- He warned the transition could be slow enough that inflation stays elevated first, especially as data-center capex and energy demand feed price pressures.
- KKR’s CFO said Q1 management fees rose 30% year-on-year and called private credit still compelling despite some capital outflows and potential default increases.
Notable quotes
“Risk of ceasefire collapsing remains elevated as a deal is unlikely until June”
“They're not willing yet to give the concessions that Donald Trump wants to see on the nuclear program”
“running a call center has become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and in particular cheaper when you have, of course, voice recognition, when you have AI helping you”
“our management fees in the quarter were up 30% year-on-year”
“we feel really good that we're going to emerge from this as a winner”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. So, here's the latest this morning.
The US and Iran trading fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf, putting the fragile ceasefire very much in doubt. Let's extend the conversation with John Lieieber of Eurasia Group writing the following. Risk of ceasefire collapsing remains elevated as a deal is unlikely until June.
Negotiations appear deadlocked with both sides believing they hold the advantage. John joins us now for more. John, welcome to the program.
just out of interest. Why is it unlikely until June?
You know, both sides, I think, aren't at their pain threshold yet. Um, certainly the US is starting to feel some of the economic pain from this war, but mostly it's being felt abroad. And for the Iranians, they're dug in.
They're not willing yet to give the concessions that Donald Trump wants to see on the nuclear program, and they think they have the superior leverage in the deal. That's what these attacks over the last 24 hours were about were about reasserting Iranian dominance over the Strait. So while we think there will be a deal, the deal will probably come sometime in June.
It could come in May, but we think it probably come sometime in June, which means a very delayed reopening of the Straight of Hormuz. But for right now, both sides are kind of still circling around each other.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us economy
- global markets
- investment strategy
- economics outlook
- finance news
Companies and tickers mentioned
- APO
- KKR
- Eurasia Group
- Apollo Global Management
- KKR & Co.
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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