Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 2, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Edward Yardeni, Jessica Taylor, Robert Doll
Summary
Tech stocks rebounded heading into earnings, but the guests split on whether the AI trade is still intact or merely cooling off. One guest said AI is “the real deal,” kept a 7900 year-end S&P 500 target, and argued that slowing AI exuberance and tighter credit from bond markets are healthy forms of discipline rather than the start of a collapse. He also said the market is still being supported by earnings expectations that remain unusually strong for 2027 and 2028.
Politics was framed as a possible source of volatility rather than a clean clearing event. A guest said the election could bring worse partisanship, longer government shutdowns, and more damaging debt confrontations if Democrats gain ground. The discussion then turned to Michigan, where Haley Stevens’ defection to endorse Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed was described as a major late shock, though Jessica Taylor said the race still looked like a tossup with turnout in Detroit and among key voter blocs likely decisive.
Bob Doll then argued that the AI bubble is already deflating, with wider credit spreads, stretched capex plans, and uncertain free cash flow making bonds more attractive relative to equities. He said the P/E multiple has fallen, but not enough to make stocks cheap, and he still sees oil and inflation as persistent risks for the market.
Key takeaways
- One guest said AI remains “the real deal” and kept a 7900 year-end S&P 500 target despite recent volatility.
- The same guest argued that bond-market discipline on AI funding is healthy and may be better for bonds than stocks.
- Jessica Taylor said Michigan remains a tossup, but Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Mike Rogers could matter because many votes were already cast.
- Bob Doll said the AI bubble is “deflating,” with capex, earnings quality, and free cash flow now under pressure.
- Doll said widening credit spreads and a 10-year Treasury near 5.35% make bonds more attractive than before.
- Doll still sees oil above $100 and inflation above target as ongoing risks for equities.
Notable quotes
“AI is the real deal. I mean, clearly a lot of money has has poured into the industry, but the result is AI does work”
“Nevertheless, we're sticking to our 7900 year end target for the S&P 500”
“I think it's better for the bonds. Uh the stocks I think we still have that uncertainty about uh when uh all this spending is going to generate uh uh earnings”
“this is all good. I have no problems with the markets regulating the uh the the AI boom”
“The AI bubble is deflating and the risk of a bust have increased, mounting woes [snorts] at wider credit spreads warrant a more constructive view of bonds and a more cautious view on equities”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Bramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with tech stocks bouncing back heading into the next wave of earnings.
Ed Yardeni of Yardi Research writing AI jitters are likely to continue beyond Halloween. Nevertheless, we're sticking to our 7900 year end target for the S&P 500. Ed Yardeni says Santa's coming.
Ed joins us now for more. Ed, welcome. It's good to see you.
Why do you believe this is not the beginning of the end for this trade? Well, uh, simply because AI is the real deal. I mean, clearly a lot of money has has poured into the industry, but the result is AI does work.
Uh, it's just, uh, it works for the customers. It's not clear that customers are generating, uh, enough revenues for the the companies themselves. Uh, but I I think what's going on is actually very positive.
Uh, I I thought we all thought believe that it was the AI was coming on too strong, too fast. Now that it's slowing down, we're worrying about that. I I think it's a good thing.
I think it's a good thing that the bond market uh the bond vigilantes are basically regulating credit, allocating credit properly, and that's a good thing.
That's not the only story though, Ed. It's also the earnings story. If you'd spent the last 12 months monitoring this program, the overwhelming majority of responses that we get from people when we ask them why they like the stock market, that's how you the earnings.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- markets
- finance
- economics
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Yardeni Research
- The Cook Political Report
- Crossmark Global Investments
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 2, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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