Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 24 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: David Kelly, Tiffany Wilding, Monica Guerra
Summary
The episode centered on whether a hot August CPI print would push the Federal Reserve toward another rate hike, and whether that would be the right response. The guest David Kelly argued that higher gasoline prices and other supply shocks should not trigger tighter policy because they are not creating wage inflation inside the economy. He said the Fed should focus on whether wages are accelerating, and he also warned that a hike could push long-term rates higher and hurt the most expensive U.S. equities.
Tiffany Wilding took the opposite side, saying the market is right to price about 75 basis points of cumulative hikes. She described the likely move as a risk-management response to repeated supply shocks and geopolitics, not a return to 2022-style labor-driven inflation. She said the Fed may still be able to be patient on the pace, but the case for gradual tightening is stronger if inflation expectations start to drift.
The discussion then shifted to politics and fiscal policy. Monica Guerrero said the president’s idea of sending $5,000 checks to voters is unlikely to happen because Congress would have to approve it, and she argued it would worsen deficits and lift term premiums. She also said AI investment and data-center spending are helping support growth, even as Washington continues to struggle with debt and budget restraint.
Key takeaways
- David Kelly argued the Fed should not hike because oil-driven inflation is not feeding wage growth or broader domestic demand.
- Tiffany Wilding said the market is right to price roughly 75 basis points of cumulative hikes as a risk-management response.
- Kelly said a Fed hike would likely push up long-term rates and pressure the frothiest, long-duration U.S. equities.
- Monica Guerrero said $5,000 checks are unlikely to pass Congress and would add pressure to bond term premiums and the federal deficit.
- Guerrero said AI and data-center investment are still supporting growth even as fiscal politics stay messy.
Notable quotes
“if we come in a tenth a full tenth lower than consensus on headline and core, if that happens, then I think the Fed is on hold”
“I don't think so. So, what you're actually seeing right now is moratoriums at the state level on debt center buildout”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, David Kelly of JP Morgan Asset Management writing, "The August CPI report is shaping up to be one of the most important inflation prints in years. We estimate that consumer prices rose 0.3% month over month.
David joins us now for more. David, good morning.
Good morning. — Is that enough to get it done next week?
Uh, is it's very close. I mean, if if we come in a tenth a full tenth lower than consensus on headline and core, if that happens, then I think the Fed is on hold. If if we come in at um at consensus, typ, you know, it's a jump ball.
And then if we come in high, of course, they will raise rates. I don't think they should. I mean, I think I think the I think first of all, this oil thing, even though we are a net exporter of oil, if you get a lot of oil revenue in, it's helping very rich oil producers in the United States.
It is not trickling down to the average American. 70% of Americans paycheck to paycheck. Um they're they're really they got they didn't get any further fiscal stimulus this year.
They're used to living off stimulus checks of various kinds. Uh we've got ver virtually no payroll job growth.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- global strategy
- us policy
- asset management
- economy
- financial markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- MS
- JPMorgan Asset Management
- PIMCO
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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