Episode summary
CPI and National Security since 9/11 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 30 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Tani Fukui, Max Kettner, Constance Hunter, Tom Michaud, Jack Devine, Joe Daniels
Summary
The morning opened on the August CPI report, which came in largely in line with expectations: headline consumer prices rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% from a year earlier. The guest on inflation said the print was close enough to keep pressure on the Federal Reserve, arguing that a 0.3% core reading would leave a very low bar for a September hike and that markets were already leaning that way.
The guest also argued that the inflation debate should not be over-read through the prior day’s PPI report, saying producer prices can be noisy and that margins can delay pass-through to consumers. Still, the guest framed the longer end of the Treasury curve as being driven by energy prices and uncertainty over what the Fed will do next.
The rest of the program marked the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections on KBW’s losses, the firm’s rebuilding, and the broader lessons of resilience, culture, and values. A former CIA director discussed how 9/11 changed national security, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the rise of drones and AI, and why the world now looks more asymmetrical and unstable. The former head of the 9/11 Memorial and Museum said the site remains essential because it preserves the voices, names, and experience of the victims while helping lower Manhattan stay alive.
Key takeaways
- The CPI report was broadly in line, with headline inflation at 0.4% month over month and core inflation at 0.3%, keeping a September Fed hike in play.
- The guest argued that a 0.3% core CPI print leaves a “pretty low bar” for the Fed to raise rates.
- The guest said PPI should be taken with “a great deal of grain of salt” because margins can delay price pass-through to consumers.
- A former CIA director argued that 9/11 led to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and said the US should have leaned more on covert action.
- The former head of the 9/11 Memorial and Museum said the site matters because it preserves the victims’ voices and helps new generations understand the attacks.
Notable quotes
“the morning of 9/11 is some of the worst of humanity, what's happened since 9/11 is some of the best of humanity”
“I think the short a short pause to give the Iranians a chance to negotiate should have taken place”
“100 million Americans now, one in three, were not born before 9/11”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. CPI coming up uh in just a few minutes really in instrumental on how the Fed is going to move going forward.
Tenny Fakui joins us here, senior director of economic market strategy at Metife Investment Management located in the bustling financial hub of Whippin, New Jersey. Tanny, thank you. There really is a town in New Jersey called Whippin.
It's a great place. Uh Tanny, thanks for joining us here. What are you looking for in a CPI?
Do you think what are you looking for and how do you think the Fed's going to kind of deal with uh the CPI print?
Yeah. So, I mean it looks like it will come in at least at 0.2%. If you start looking at um what the pricing was in terms of Fed funds pricing as well as looking at the um betting markets KHI and poly market we've seen a big jump in the last 24 hours about um that that rate that inflation is going to come in a little bit high.
Okay. So given that um you know if you get something like 0.3% that's a fairly um balanced three 0.3% on core I always look at the core inflation um you can pretty much see that the Fed is going to have to start um is going to have to do a hike in September. Um now if it's something like airfare or you know one or two idiosyncratic things then perhaps there's something to to argue about there but um generally speaking there's a pretty low bar for um for the Fed to hike at this point.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- cpi
- us inflation
- market strategy
- national security
- 9/11 anniversary
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MET
- MetLife Investment Management
- HSBC
- Economist Enterprise
- KBW
- The Arkin Group
Watch the episode
Watch “CPI and National Security since 9/11 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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