Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 29th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 19 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Edward Yardeni, Dan Ives, Joyce Chang
Summary
Elevated bond yields were the main macro concern, with the host and a guest arguing that the market is already in a negative feedback loop: higher yields amplify deficit worries, and those worries can push yields still higher. The guest said the move is being driven by a mix of mechanical forces, including the Bank of Japan’s rate hikes and the unwind of the global carry trade, plus algorithmic trading that magnifies headlines into bigger bond moves. He said the 2-year Treasury is still signaling more central-bank tightening and that investors should proceed with caution on equities.
The discussion then turned to the AI trade, where the guest said stresses are starting to appear around Oracle’s Stargate-related data-center buildout and around the broader pipeline for deals and IPOs. He still sees the AI capex boom as early, but he called the scale of spending eye-opening and said investors will eventually need to see real returns, not just promises. He also argued that the U.S. should avoid slowing AI too much because China could narrow the gap if regulation becomes too restrictive.
Joyce Chang said the midterm elections are being underestimated as a market risk, with affordability, AI politics, tariffs, and possible Iran-related escalation all on the radar. She argued that neither party currently has clear economic trust, that gas prices are reshaping voter sentiment, and that AI regulation is likely to become a bigger issue later, especially by 2028.
Key takeaways
- The guest said bond markets are already in a negative feedback loop, not just nearing one, as global yields rise and deficits become more worrying.
- He sees the Bank of Japan’s tightening and the unwind of the carry trade as major drivers of higher global yields.
- The guest called 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury attractive but said it may not be the peak, with 6% now possible.
- He argued AI capex is still in an early phase, but investors will eventually demand visible returns from the spending surge.
- Joyce Chang said the November midterms are underestimated as a risk because affordability, AI, tariffs and Iran could all shape the policy backdrop.
Notable quotes
“we aren't on the brink of it. We're sort of in the midst of it”
“bonds yielding 5.25% are very attractive”
“this might be the revenge of the bond vigilantes”
“I think the midterm elections are underestimated as a risk right now”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with elevated yields keeping a pressure on equity markets worldwide.
Edeni of Yenni Research writing, "We suspect that the bond market has been hacked by bond vigilante algorithms. They respond to news headlines with huge trades that exacerbate volatility. Ed joins us now for more.
Ed, welcome to the program, sir. It's good to see you. Do you believe we might be entering a little bit of a negative feedback loop in this bond market where high yields fuel deficit worries and that fuels high yields?
Are we on the brink of that, Ed?
I think we aren't on the brink of it. We're sort of in the midst of it. We've actually seen I think u since the beginning of the year a synchronized increase in bond yields might actually have started last year.
And I think a lot of that has to do with what we've previously discussed um the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates and that is causing an unwind of the global carry trade which I think is affecting uh glo global bonds. Uh and so a lot of that is kind of a a knee-jerk mechanical event. Uh but at the same time, I think we also have these algorithms that'll take any news whatsoever that's out there and some of that's been bearish and kind of blow it up.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- markets
- finance
- investment strategy
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- Bloomberg
- Yardeni Research
- Yorkville Ives & Co.
- JPMorgan Securities
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 29th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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