Episode summary
Ceasefire Push Keeps Markets on Edge | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Eric Van Nostrand, Scott DiMaggio, Dan Ives, Joe Mazzola
Summary
Markets spent the hour trying to price a longer-than-expected geopolitical shock without fully abandoning risk assets. The host’s guests repeatedly argued that the oil spike and disruptions around the Strait are a supply shock, not a demand shock, and that markets have been too sanguine about inflation and too quick to assume the tension will fade. One guest said oil at 108 is still below the worst-case scenarios being discussed, but high enough to keep pressure on rates, credit and portfolio positioning.
Across equities and fixed income, the message was to stay selective rather than make a big macro call. A guest from Lazard favored bottoms-up resilience, especially companies with sturdier supply chains and balance sheets, while a fixed-income guest from AllianceBernstein said investors should focus on duration, investment grade and selective credit as yields near 5% create value. The bond view was that if growth slows in the second half, Treasuries and spreads could rally even if near-term inflation stays sticky.
Tech was presented as conflicted but still attractive: one guest called AI a major positive supply shock that is offsetting war-related pressure, while another argued the market is still underestimating the durability of Microsoft, hyperscalers, cybersecurity and other software names. A Schwab strategist said retail and institutional investors have been de-risking through diversification, not outright capitulation, and remain cautious heading into April.
Key takeaways
- A Lazard guest said markets are underpricing a prolonged oil and inflation shock and should lean on companies with robust supply chains.
- AllianceBernstein’s fixed-income guest said duration, investment grade and selective high yield look attractive as yields near 5% and defaults stay low.
- The host’s tech guest argued that AI remains a powerful positive supply shock, even as conflict in the Middle East pressures sentiment.
- Charles Schwab’s strategist said investors are de-risking mainly by diversifying, not by abandoning equities outright.
- The Schwab read was that April brings the highest level of bearishness in a while, but not clear capitulation yet.
Notable quotes
“markets are much too sanguin about these shocks, much too sanguin about inflation in general”
“we're still concerned that markets are much too sanguin about these shocks, much too sanguin about inflation in general”
“the combination of them is exactly why I think markets this year are so interesting”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Eric Venostran, we start strong.
Chief Investment Officer at Lazard Asset Management. What a tumultuous weekend. The emotion, the president's tweet, and everything else is well.
What are people actually doing? Well, I think Tom, if you look over the past couple weeks, this is not the first couple days that we've had whipsaw action coming out of the White House in terms of how aggressive the posture is going to be on in Iran and corresponding whipssaw action in the way markets are responding. You know, you open the show talking about oil being at 108, it's not at 90.
The way I think about it, it's at 108, it's not at 130. If you do a basic back of the envelope on how much the oil price should be moving, if we're really in for a persistent period of straight disruption, I get much higher numbers. And that's why I'm pretty worried looking at markets that are still
Well that was really in the zeitgeist this weekend. It was — The pros like Eric are all 130 140. — Yep.
You know Anna Wong's model in 200 is an exercise impact. So So as the chief investment officer in asset management business what's the conversation you're having with your portfolio managers these days? So, what we're looking at is the disconnect between where where economic fundamentals are telling us that oil is going to go, that companies that are linked to the oil price, that companies that are linked to other non-oil imports coming out of the straight are going to go, and what markets are saying.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- geopolitical risk
- defensive portfolio strategy
- fixed income income approach
- tech sector resilience
- economic data and investor sentiment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SCHW
- Lazard Asset Management
- AllianceBernstein
- Wedbush Securities
- Charles Schwab
Watch the episode
Watch “Ceasefire Push Keeps Markets on Edge | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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