Episode summary
Dollar Drops While Gold Tops $5,000, Stocks Rise
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Guests: Brian Belski
Summary
Brian Belski said the market is moving from a momentum- and multiple-driven rally toward a phase where earnings matter more, and he thinks that transition is especially important this week as major tech companies report. He argued that the recent outperformance of small- and mid-cap stocks is a positive sign for market breadth and for the longer-term secular bull market, even if the largest growth names still matter.
On asset allocation, Belski said the U.S. may not keep dominating other markets as easily as it did in 2025, when Europe, emerging markets and Canada benefited from a weaker dollar and other crosscurrents. He expects more balance across regions this year and said future performance in Europe and emerging markets will need to be driven by fundamentals rather than just materials and energy.
For long-term investors, Belsky urged patience rather than fear-driven trading. He said portfolios should broaden beyond the biggest stocks to include more value, small and mid caps, and dividend growth, while still keeping some tech exposure. He also said bonds still belong in portfolios and described the current Treasury zone as a level where investors should own bonds.
Key takeaways
- Brian Belski said the market is shifting from momentum to earnings, making this week’s big-tech reports a key test.
- He said recent small- and mid-cap strength supports better market breadth and is positive for the secular bull market.
- Belski said 2025 was a snapback year for non-U.S. assets, but he expects a more balanced global backdrop in 2026.
- He advised 401(k) investors to stay invested and broaden exposure toward value, small and mid caps, and dividend growth without abandoning tech.
- Belski said bonds remain an important portfolio anchor and that the current Treasury yield zone is attractive to own.
Notable quotes
“I think the market is going to be having a hard time transitioning from this really momentum, multiple driven upside”
“we've had tremendous performance and outperformance the last week or two weeks from the small mid-cap area which we've been talking about for a couple of years”
“we think a broadening out of the market to more small mid-caps is actually quite positive for the longer term breadth”
“If you miss the best days in the market and you try to trade the market hours since 1990, the average annual return is 8.6%”
How the episode opens
I think the market is going to be having a hard time transitioning from this really momentum, multiple driven upside that we've for all intents and purposes seen since the fourth quarter of 2020 to when the current bull cycle started. Our work shows historically that earnings driven markets are still positive, but they're not as positive with older markets. I think that's why this week is such a huge week because we see some of the biggest tech companies come out with earnings, number one.
Number two, we've had tremendous performance and outperformance the last week or two weeks from the small mid-cap area which we've been talking about for a couple of years. We were pretty early, but at the end of the day, we think a broadening out of the market to more small mid-caps is actually quite positive for the longer term breadth and and and positive nature of the overall secular bull market that we continue to call for. Paul, as the Nasdaq up 18% one year, S&P up 13% one year, Dow up 11% one year.
I believe that's double digit performance. Double digit performance. Brian Thomas is calling out some solid returns for U.S.
equities. But if you think about 2025 and even the start here in 2026, rest of world other markets have done a lot better outside the U.S.. How do you think about the U.S.
versus rest of world? It's a great question, Paul. You know, 2025 is a snapback year, principally because I think a lot of political side of things in the fear trade, leaving leaving the United States.
Then you also have the currency weakening and then you've got the currency strengthening in other areas. And we do think that the value proposition certainly of Europe and some emerging markets was an attractive play.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- small and mid cap equities
- dollar and gold moves
- fed rates outlook
- jpmorgan earnings guidance analysis
- ai capex pressure
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- Humilis Investment Strategies
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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