Episode summary
Equities Face Best Rally since 2023 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 27 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: John Ryding, Dan Ives, Natasha Sarin, Rich Steinmeier
Summary
John Ryding argued that the bond market is sending a clear warning: real yields are back near record highs, inflation is not behaving like a wage spiral, and the Fed may need to do more work than its latest forecasts suggest. He said a 2026 rate cut looks unlikely, and even raised the possibility that the next move could be a hike if inflation and oil pressures persist.
Dan Ives framed the AI trade as still early, with massive capex rippling through tech, energy, and related industries. He said companies are spending aggressively because they cannot afford to miss the wave, even if AI tools are costly today. He also argued that the market is underestimating both Microsoft’s position in the AI stack and the strategic importance of SpaceX, saying a Tesla-SpaceX merger remains a real possibility.
Natasha Sarin focused on tax policy, saying the carried interest loophole remains a major source of unrealized revenue and that Yale Budget Lab estimates about $90 billion over 10 years could be raised by closing it. She also said tariffs are now near 10% effective, with legal uncertainty around parts of the policy, and argued that rolling back adverse trade measures could quickly help consumers.
Rich Steinmeier said wealth management is shifting toward AI-enabled operations, not AI replacing advisors. He argued the biggest change will be automation behind the scenes, allowing more personalized advice and creating a move from IQ to EQ in how firms serve clients.
Key takeaways
- John Ryding said the Fed may need to do more than markets expect because real yields are near record highs and inflation is still firm.
- John Ryding said he does not expect the Fed to cut rates in 2026 and thinks a hike is more plausible if oil and inflation stay elevated.
- Dan Ives argued AI spending is still in the early innings and will keep driving capex across tech, energy, and infrastructure.
- Dan Ives said Microsoft remains a top AI beneficiary and that betting against Musk has historically been the wrong move.
- Natasha Sarin said closing the carried interest loophole could raise about $90 billion over 10 years, but enforcement would be difficult without better IRS visibility.
- Rich Steinmeier said AI will automate wealth-management workflows but not replace financial advisors, instead enabling more personalized service.
Notable quotes
“I see the 30-year inflationadjusted yield truly back up to near record highs. What does that signal to you”
“it signals to me that the Fed is going to have to do more work than the last set of SEPs suggested, which still had a rate cut in for 2026, which I just don't see happening”
“we're still in the early stages of the there's more data centers being built than active data centers. costs over time will come down”
“We think about autonomous robotics and where this is all going in terms of the next level of AI”
“it does have this massively beneficial tax treatment. So if you are a wage or salary earnner in this country, you on your income are paying ordinary income rates”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Uh, this is welltimed and we could even easily have him on once a week.
John writing was definitive at Bear Sterns for writing brilliant international US economics with a trenchant view towards a world of higher interest rates. He has absolutely nailed this call of higher yields with Breen. Uh, we're thrilled that John writing could join us this morning.
John writing, "I see the 30-year inflationadjusted yield truly back up to near record highs. What does that signal to you?"
Well, it signals to me that the Fed is going to have to do more work than the last set of SEPs suggested, which still had a rate cut in for 2026, which I just don't see happening. um that neutral is not down at 1.1% in real terms but is significantly higher and it it you know you know I mean not not to pick on any Fed member but uh big old Fed President Pollson's speech earlier this week and she asserted at a couple point speech which is a generally a good speech that with policy I I think of words modestly restrictive restrictive there is no defense It's an assertion that policy is restricted and the inflation data are going higher which argues against chair pal's I think relatively
Famous expression now that they're no neutral by its works. Well, we're seeing higher inflation so we wouldn't appear to be um at neutral. Um and the markets have a much higher real yield than the the Fed's asserting.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us economic outlook
- nvidia earnings
- tech ipo
- carried interest
- wealth management
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- LPLA
- Nvidia
- LPL Financial
- Brean Capital
- Wedbush Securities
- Yale Budget Lab
Watch the episode
Watch “Equities Face Best Rally since 2023 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
