Episode summary
India Inflation Slowed to Record Low in October
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 6 min · Guests: Rohit Chopra, Madhavi Arora, Garima Kapoor
Summary
The guest argues that emerging markets are moving beyond a basic convergence trade and are increasingly tied to innovation, industrial upgrading and the “fourth industrialization.” He points to China’s shift toward EVs, battery storage, biotech and AI-linked industries, and says the country is back in favor because Beijing is showing more pragmatism toward the private sector and major companies.
India is presented as a long-term structural story rather than a short-term trade. The guest says per-capita incomes are still low, consumers are buying homes and spending for the first time, and the country wants to move deeper into global supply chains and manufacturing. He says valuations can be challenging in parts of the market, but over the next ten years India could remain one of the fastest-growing major economies and see GDP double.
He also sounds constructive on U.S.-India trade ties, saying there is more optimism around tariff negotiations and more dialogue between the two sides. More broadly, he argues that emerging-market investors need to think holistically across countries, because developments in China, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere interact with each other and create inefficiencies that long-term capital can exploit.
Key takeaways
- The guest says emerging markets are evolving from a simple convergence trade into a technology and industrialization story.
- He says China is back in favor because Beijing is showing pragmatism and major Chinese companies are driving innovation.
- He says India’s growth case rests on low per-capita income, first-time consumers, and a push into global manufacturing and supply chains.
- He expects India can remain one of the fastest-growing major economies and says GDP should double over the next ten years.
- He says U.S.-India tariff relations look more constructive now, with more dialogue and optimism over the coming months.
Notable quotes
“We are moving beyond foundational, basic emerging markets. It's driving convergence”
“Parts of emerging markets are driving the forth industrialization. We're seeing that in Asia and North Asia as well”
“We believe in the India story. I mean, as I mentioned, the economies now hit around a little over 3 trillion”
“India wants to be in the in the global supply chain manufacturing side”
“we think India is one of the is the largest, fastest growing economy and GDP should double”
How the episode opens
I think the context of emerging markets is is evolution. We are moving beyond foundational, basic emerging markets. It's driving convergence.
China is at the forefront of that. Historically, it was about manufacturing, exporting to the U.S. consumer.
What you found is that they have really focused and honed in on the future of technology. We've seen that in terms of EV penetration. Today in China, for example, over 50% of new cars are EV.
You're seeing that in terms of battery storage. See some of the your biotech area. So you're seeing a focus on the next generation of technologies.
And the context is that emerging markets is not just a convergence story. Parts of emerging markets are driving the forth industrialization. We're seeing that in Asia and North Asia as well.
Taiwan, Korea, particularly around some of the AI themes. So for a while there, you know, my Asia, my China proxy is Alibaba. That's it.
That's all I know. And then it was doing so well for all the reasons we all understand. And the government came in and put the kibosh on a lot of the tech there.
And that was three or four years out in the desert. Nobody could care about China. It's back.
Right. And why is it back? I think it's back because there's pragmatism in Beijing.
We need to bring back the private sector and engage and develop that social contract with with with the youth. I think it's also the fact that there's been a lot of innovation deep seek. Earlier this year highlighted that China's is in this race.
They're they're evolving and the context of these are national champions that are helping drive and evolve the economy. This is too important. Over the weekend, LVMH announces for New Tiffany's and Louis Vuitton's and all that in Beijing.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- india inflation
- food price deflation
- rbi rate cuts
- bond yields
- consumption tax overhaul
Companies and tickers mentioned
- LAZ
- Lazard Asset Management
- Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
- Elara Securities India Pvt Ltd
Watch the episode
Watch “India Inflation Slowed to Record Low in October” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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