Episode summary

Record US Government Shutdown Ends as Trump Signs Spending Bill

Bloomberg Surveillance · · 5 min · Guests: Wendy Schiller

Record US Government Shutdown Ends as Trump Signs Spending Bill – Bloomberg Surveillance

Summary

Wendy Schiller said the shutdown deal reflects a steady narrowing of what Congress allows to be disrupted, with more politically sensitive programs now protected. She pointed to the one-year extension of appropriations for SNAP, legislative staff pay, and Veterans Affairs as the key reason the agreement won over Democratic senators, calling it the hidden gain in the deal.

She argued Democrats used the shutdown to force attention onto health care affordability, especially rising Obamacare premium subsidies. In her view, they have put Republicans in a box by highlighting a problem that affects a smaller group directly but resonates more broadly through families and the wider cost-of-living squeeze. She expects Democrats to try to run on health care in 2026, much as they did after the 2018 fight over Obamacare.

Looking ahead, Schiller said Congress may soon face a House vote on releasing the Epstein files, along with a new battle over whether to extend Obamacare subsidies past December 31st. She said Republicans would be wise to extend them for a year and rename the program, but questioned whether the House has the votes to do that.

Key takeaways

  • Wendy Schiller said the shutdown deal is notable because it shields SNAP, legislative staff pay and Veterans Affairs from future shutdown leverage.
  • Schiller argued Democrats used the shutdown to elevate Obamacare subsidy expirations and broader affordability concerns.
  • She said the health-care issue could help Democrats in 2026 by pressuring Republicans into an unpopular yes-or-no decision.
  • Schiller said the House may soon vote on releasing the Epstein files after a discharge petition reached 218 signatures.
  • She suggested Republicans could buy time by extending Obamacare subsidies for a year and renaming the program, but she is unsure the House has the votes.

Notable quotes

“So what's key about this agreement? And I think this is really what sold the senators”

— Wendy Schiller at 0:15

“extending appropriations for a full year for SNAP, for example, for legislative appropriations, meaning ledge staffers will get paid and for Veterans Affairs”

— Wendy Schiller at 0:25

“the Democrats gambled that health care would be of concern”

— Wendy Schiller at 1:14

“they are counting on the Republicans to say no so that they can run on this issue and run on health care all in 28, 2026”

— Wendy Schiller at 2:05

“so I think this is a setup that the Democrats have tried to set up”

— Wendy Schiller at 2:35

How the episode opens

Well, good morning, Tom and Paul. We've discussed on this show how the the incredible shrinking shutdowns, meaning that, you know, every time we go through this, the Congress carves out more area that's protected from the shutdown. So what's key about this agreement?

And I think this is really what sold the senators, the Democratic senators who decided to vote for it was extending appropriations for a full year for SNAP, for example, for legislative appropriations, meaning ledge staffers will get paid and for Veterans Affairs. So they've taken more hot button, really, you know, what we call valence kinds of programs off the table for a shutdown. So next time, maybe it'll just be air traffic controllers.

And and that's a huge deal. But it's you know, it's less than it would be now. So I think that's the that's the sort of hidden gem, if you will, in the shutdown.

Does speak to our listeners and viewers who say, why did we do this? I mean, I mean, I'm baffled by the constructive outcome of this. What was constructive in this exercise?

Well, the Democrats gambled that health care would be of concern. They knew that private insurance market premiums were going to go up. And, you know, the carriers have been very clear about the cost of health care and that these premiums are going to go up.

So they they drew attention to extending a subsidy for people who buy Obamacare insurance and try to get a tax break for the premium or some part of the premium. You know, that's a smaller subset than everybody that's on Obamacare, and that's kind of a bureaucratic issue. But now everybody knows what that issue is.

And they are they basically it's a simple fix. Let's just extend it.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • us government shutdown
  • trump spending bill
  • federal workers back pay
  • air travel disruptions
  • economic impact projections

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • DAL
  • Delta Air Lines

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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