Episode summary

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision | Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance · · 21 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Jerome Powell

Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision | Bloomberg Surveillance – Bloomberg Surveillance

Summary

The discussion centered on two market-moving takeaways from the Fed decision: Jerome Powell’s plan to remain at the Fed as a governor after his chair term ends on May 15, and the committee’s growing hesitation to keep signaling an easing bias. Powell said the legal and political attacks on the Fed are a concern because they threaten monetary policy independence, and he added that he will stay on as a governor for a period of time to be determined.

On policy, the vote was eight to four, with four dissents and three of those dissenters wanting to drop the easing bias language. The host and guests argued that this was more significant than the headline decision itself, because Powell acknowledged that support for a more neutral stance has increased and that a change could come as soon as the next meeting.

The market backdrop was a surge in oil prices, with Brent briefly above 120 and yields higher at the front end. Jeffery Rosenberg of BlackRock argued that the committee is increasingly divided because of the conflict between growth and inflation, while Jim Bianco said the Fed is not yet ready to remove the easing bias and that the oil shock makes an easing harder to justify.

Key takeaways

  • Jerome Powell said he will remain on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends on May 15, underscoring the institutional and legal tensions around the central bank.
  • The Fed voted 8-4, and three of the four dissents were aimed at removing the easing bias language.
  • Jim Bianco argued that Powell’s decision to stay on is a political misstep and a disappointment for Fed independence.
  • Jeffrey Rosenberg said the committee’s division reflects the Fed’s conflict between growth and inflation as oil prices surge.
  • The guests said the market has already priced out the easing bias, but the next move depends on how long the oil shock lasts.

Notable quotes

“My concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed”

— Jerome Powell at 0:33

“The you know, number of people on the committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance so that a hike is as as likely as as a cut”

— Jerome Powell at 1:36

“A majority are still on the page of of not feeling the need to move to that level and I I that's where I am”

— Jerome Powell at 1:57

How the episode opens

Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.

This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. In the next 20 minutes on this program, we need to discuss two things.

The future of Chairman Powell one, the easing bias at the Federal Reserve two. On the future of Chairman Powell stand on as a governor of the Federal Reserve. He was asked why this is what he had to say.

My concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed. These attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on independence.

I think Fed independence is at risk. So what about the easing bias? Let's talk about monetary policy.

The question coming into this decision is whether this Federal Reserve would move to a more symmetrical reaction function. That's the jargon. This is the plain speak.

Is it just as likely they'll hike as they'll cut? They didn't do it this time around, but there was some dissent. This vote was eight to four.

Four dissents. Haven't seen that since the 1990s. Of those four, three wanted to get rid of that easing bias.

This is what the chairman had to say on that issue. The you know, number of people on the committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance so that a hike is as as likely as as a cut. Uh that number has increased over the intermeeting period and it's easy to see why.

We had the discussion. A majority are still on the page of of not feeling the need to move to that level and I I that's where I am.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • fed policy decision
  • jay powell
  • fed chair term
  • board of governors
  • market reaction

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